Buy Like Buffett

Apple (AAPL) surpassed Microsoft (MSFT) last week as the largest technology company in the United States. Apple now has a market cap of $237 billion dollars compared to Microsoft’s market cap of $226 billion dollars. Will surpassing Microsoft as the largest tech company be a sign of bad things to come for Apple? Some analysts seem to think so. There are even articles advising investors to short shares of Apple (Steve Jobs Won’t Live Forever So Short Apple Now).

Why Apple Is No Microsoft

Apple and Microsoft are like night and day. Microsoft has never been a market leader in any segment. Microsoft is slow to adapt and late to the game. Look at Microsoft’s most recent foray into the telecommunications market. With Research In Motion, Google, and Apple all dominating the smartphone market, Microsoft is now attempting to gain market share with its Windows Phone 7. Even its famed MSDOS operating system was bought from Seattle Computer Products for $50,000. Microsoft generates revenue from licensing and sales of upgrades of existing products. Microsoft has been unable to spur future growth because of a lack of innovation.

Microsoft has almost $40 billion on its balance sheet and nowhere to deploy it. Microsoft missed an opportunity to snap up smaller competitors like Palm. Microsoft has never been able to acquire Yahoo despite being interested in acquiring the search rival for years. The culture at Microsoft reflects the persona of CEO Steve Ballmer. He is a Harvard trained manager and not a product development guy.

Apple deservingly so trades at a premium to Microsoft because of its recent history of growth. Apple has the persona of Steve Jobs. He is a product guy and the reason for Apple’s focus on new product development. iMacs, iPods, iPhones, and iPads are great examples of Apple’s ability to bring new products to the market over the past decade. Apple is an industry leader whereas other tech companies are slow to catch up. Steve Jobs may be the brains behind Apple but the company has a deep bench with Tim Cook and Phil Schiller. Look at the turnaround at Palm by former Apple exec Jonathan Rubenstein. Apple has a way of selling you products that you never knew you needed until Apple made them. The iPad is a perfect example of this. I wouldn’t be willing to bet against the fact that Apple will continue to create cool new products that people want.

Look at it this way. If you had $1 million dollars to invest in either company over the next 5 years, who would you feel more comfortable placing it with? Steve Jobs at Apple or Steve Balmer at Microsoft?

Disclosure: I do not own shares of either company.

Photo by: kyz

 Apple released its new tablet PC this past Saturday. Customers lined up early in the morning hoping to score a brand new iPad. The early reviews for the Apple iPad have been pretty remarkable. Everyone who uses an iPad seems to fall in love with it. Some pundits believe that it could bring about the demise of the notebook PC. Will the success of the iPad lead to the death of the laptop?

What drives iPad sales
CNET did a poll of Apple customers to find out the top reasons that they are buying an iPad. The reasons were as follows:
- Applications
- For the computer averse
- Didn’t have a laptop
- Coffee table tablet
- Novelty
- Not a computer, as we know it
- Impulse purchase

Why the iPad won’t replace the notebook PC
I don’t believe that the iPad will replace the laptop, although it is certain to be a smash hit. The CNET poll shows that the average iPad customer is not buying the iPad to replace their laptop but as a niche item. Customers love its speed, cool apps, web browsing capabilities, and the entertainment applications. The iPad has created a whole new category for mobile computing. It’s not as small as a smartphone and not as large as a notebook computer. Andy Ihnatko of the Chicago Sun Times said it best when he stated the iPad is”not a replacement for my notebook, mind you. It feels more as if the iPad is filling a gap that’s existed for quite some time.”

How The iPad is changing mobile computing
The advantages that notebooks have over the iPad are in multitasking and content creation. Laptops better meet the needs of business users due to the ease in creating documents, spreadsheets, and presentations. The larger screen and keyboard are also pluses for laptops. The iPad won’t kill off the laptop but it will change the face of mobile computing. I expect PC designers to take a cue from Apple and base future models off of the iPad’s design. Imagine future HP and Dell laptops resembling sleeker larger iPads. Flat touch screen notebook PC’s that can stand up with virtual keyboards instead of physical keyboards. Add in all of the applications and smooth operating features of an iPad and you have a surefire winner. Just like with the iPad, carrying cases would be a must with a device like this.

The mobile computer market is large enough for both the iPad and the notebook PC. Is the market big enough for the netbook too? That’s another story.

Photo by: Arbron

The race to be king in the tablet PC market is heating up. Hewlett Packard, Dell ,Lenovo, Sony and Samsung have all displayed their tablet PC offerings at the 2010 Consumer Electronics show. Microsoft is expected to release a courier tablet PC within the next few months. All of these companies are competing to be the first to market in the sizzling hot tablet PC market. The game changer however is expected to be Apple’s “iSlate” tablet PC expected to launch in the next few weeks.

The tablet PC market is important because it is seen as the next major growth market in computer hardware. Tablet PC’s are smaller more portable devices than netbooks. Netbooks are still relatively new devices ad are expected to surpass 14 billion in sales next year. The tablet market is expected to take in over 5 billion dollars in revenue in its first year. That’s impressive. Tablet sales could increase profits significantly for many tech firms. Now you can see why tech firms are scrambling to be the first to market with their tablets.

The reason that I think that Apple’s iSlate will fare the best is because of Apple’s recent history with its product offerings. From the ipod to the iphone to the imac, Apple has wowed consumers with its innovation in product development. Apple products always seem to possess unique features that differentiate their products from competitors. Consumers have ponied up the cash for Apple’s niche products even during the recession of the past few years. I don’t expect this year to be any different. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster estimates that Apple could add over 1.2 billion dollars in revenue in year 1. That’s a 3% increase in revenue from tablet PC sales alone.

While the tablet market is large enough for many players to get a piece of the pie, expect Apple to outperform competitors as they have done in the past. I wouldn’t chase Apple’s stock at its current price of $210 per share but I would be a buyer on a pullback to $185.