EA Gets It Wrong Again

Electronic Arts

Electronic Arts has once again disappointed investors. EA downgraded profit expectations from 79 cents to a range of 40 to 55 cents per share. Electronic Arts had more excuses for why the company’s revenue was lagging. Electronic Arts blamed the poor economy, overseas weakness and consumers changing buying habits. I don’t believe that is the case. Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter said it best. Electronic Arts simply “did not have the products that people wanted” and should be acknowledging that rather than “blaming everything on the environment.” EA looks tempting at $16.74 but after having fallen into that value trap before; I will pass.

Alcoa Swings & Misses

Alcoa reported a profit of 1 cent per share disappointing the street which had expected the aluminum maker to report 6 cents a share. Revenue came in higher than expected at 5.42 billion but the increase was offset by higher operating costs. Alcoa’s stock dropped 5.4% down to $16.51 in after hours trading.

Metals Look Cheap

US Steel (X) is looking attractive at $22.  The steelmaker is expected to earn $5.40 per share in 2010 which means the stock is trading at 4 times next years earnings. The industry average for steel companies is 7.5 which would value US Steel at $40.50.

Alcoa (AA) is interesting at $6 per share. Analysts expect .60 per share earnings for next year which would place a multiple of 10 on Alcoa. The scary thing about Alcoa is that the company may have negative earnings if aluminum prices stay cheap.

AK Steel (AKS) looks like at a takeover target at its current price. The company has a decent balance sheet and currently trades at $6.68. 2010 earnings are expected to come in around $1.70. It might be worth buying in the mid 5′s.

Interesting Stocks

Listed below are a few stocks that I have been trading in and out of over the past two months based on when I think shares are cheap.

Bank of America(BAC) dropped to the $10 price level today. As stated in a previous post, I sold off all shares at $17. I am waiting for the stock to hit the single digits and then I will be a big buyer again. A dividend cut is definitely coming. While Bank of America and Citigroup(C) are expected to report big losses for the 4th quarter. Wells Fargo(WFC) and US Bancorp(USB) are expected to be profitable in the 4th quarter.

Alcoa (AA) dropped to $9.50 today. I sold off all of my Alcoa shares at the $12 level because I figured the earnings would be bad. I would be a buyer again at the $7 price level.

General Electric(GE) dropped to $14.70 today. I began adding a small amount of shares again at the $14.90 level. Whenever GE gets below $15, I am a buyer.

United States Oil ETF(USO) is dipping to levels where I would look to add shares. Right now it trades at $31 per share. Below $30 I will look to add shares again.

Intel(INTC) with a 4% dividend yield at $13.57 looks reasonably cheap. I know that technology companies earnings are going to be rough in 2009 but Intel is a good long term investment. I think the stock will get cheaper still and will look to buy at $12.

Activision Buy

Bought 1000 shares of Activision Blizzard(ATVI) at $8.18 per share. ATVI dropped below its 52 week low today. Activision has $2.20 in cash per share on the balance sheet and no debt.

Sold Chesapeake Energy stock today for a 24% gain. I didn’t expect the stock to move up this rapidly. The stock went from $15.50 to $19.50 in one week.

Sold off the rest of Alcoa at $12.20. Alcoa has almost doubled over the past month.

Alcoa

Sold half of my position in Alcoa at $11.42 for a 24% return. I am holding on to the other half to see if the upswing continue.

I’m glad that I sold my short position in SRS on Monday. SRS has declined to $52.47 per share.

Stocks that I am buying now

The current economic crisis is creating unique buying opportunities for some of the blue chip companies that are trading at historic price lows. Alcoa (AA), which is the largest aluminum producer in the US, is currently trading at below $7.00 per share. Alcoa’s stock has not been this low since the early 90′s. Alcoa has a market cap of about 6 billion dollars. Alcoa currently carries a P/E ratio of 3 which is well below the industry average of 6. Commodities stocks have been hit particularly hard this year due to the deflationary environment. Deflation has led to a decline in commodity prices. Aluminum prices have fallen roughly 50 percent from their highs of the summer. Combine this with the weakening demand for aluminum due to the global recession and you can see why Alcoa’s stock has dropped significantly.

So why do I like this stock? I think that all of the negative news has already been priced into Alcoa’s stock. Even if the earnings decline by 50% going forward, the earnings multiple would still be slightly lower than the industry average. Alcoa has taken the necessary steps to survive the global recession. Alcoa has already cut aluminum production by 15% and has frozen its spending on capital projects. The company restructured its long term debt obligations to improve liquidity. Alcoa’s debt to capital ratio is just above .36 which means the company is capable of meeting its financial obligations. Alcoa’s stock is currently paying out an attractive 8% yield in dividends .The stock does still carry significant risk because of the current volatile market conditions. But at these prices I am a buyer of Alcoa stock.