Bank Stocks May Finally Be A Bargain

The US Treasury is finally set to unveil its plan to buy toxic assets from banks. The public private partnership is expected to buy up to 1 trillion dollars in bank assets. The government hopes to entice private investors with guarantees and offering low interest loans to remove toxic assets from bank balance sheets. The government will share the risk if the toxic assets continue to decline in value. If these assets are removed from bank balance sheets without additional government ownership then the major banks should see their share prices increase substantially.

The Public-Private Investment Program should benefit Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo the most. These are 4 of the largest banks in the country and have balance sheets riddled with toxic assets. The 1 trillion dollar plan should help alleviate some of the problems facing these banking giants. All of the assets that are currently deemed as bad assets are not such and will have some value in the future. If the government holds these assets until the economy improves then the stock prices of the major banks should rise over a time. It may take a few years to see a significant rebound in price but with a plan finally in place the financial sector should improve. I have been a buyer of Wells Fargo, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase at these distressed prices.

I don’t know if 1 trillion is enough to remove all of the bad assets from the balance sheets of banks but it is a good start.

Ken Lewis is a Goner

Bank of America (BAC) dropped to the $2.50 level today and has a market cap below 15 billion. There is much speculation that the bank will be taken over by the government and nationalized. If Bank of America is nationalized stockholders and debt holders would essentially be wiped out. This weekend will be very telling for Bank of America. I would expect that that government would be in talks with Bank of America about a possible nationalization plan. Even if Bank of America is able to remain private Ken Lewis is a goner. He won’t be able to survive this. There will be various lawsuits from shareholders and debt holders and it’s unlikely that investors have any confidence in his leadership after the Merrill Lynch acquisition. He could have survived the Countrywide purchase but the Merrill Lynch acquisition has likely done him in. He knew about the toxic assets at Merrill and still went ahead with the deal. He may be held liable for not disclosing this information to shareholders. There are also reports that Lewis is losing the confidence of senior management.

Citigroup (C) is in an even worse situation. Citigroup has declined to $1.61 and its market cap is now below 10 billion. This is unbelievable. Citi does not have the deposit base of Bank of America and is trying to sell of assets in a depressed economy. I don’t see anyway that Citigroup can stay a private firm. If Citi breaks the $1 level the former banking giant will have to be nationalized. Pandit may need to go as well. Although he didn’t create all of the Citi’s problems, Pandit may have to go to boost investor confidence in the stock.

Bank of America Sale

Sold short term position in Bank of America at $6.15. I only had 400 shares and my total profit was 27.5%. Not too bad for 3 days. I made $550 on investment of $1900. I still add to my long term position on a monthly basis but I wanted to take some profits on my short term trading.

Bought 120 shares of Proshares UltraCrude Oil ETF(UCO) at $9.85.

Bank of America

Bought 300 shares of Bank of America at $5.70. This is by no means a long term investment right now. The company is under tremendous financial pressure for at least the next two quarters and may need more capital. This is more speculative. I said that I would buy BAC if it hit the $5 level. I am taking a chance that the stock is oversold. My position is very small with a cost of under 2,000 dollars.

Banking Troubles

As expected Bank of America has cut its dividend down to 1 penny. The stock has dropped to $7.00 and is becoming a more interesting buy. I will be interested in buying Bank of America if the price hits the high end of the $5 range. Wells Fargo is trading down significantly as well. I like Wells better than Bank of America and will add shares if it hits $15.

Banking Woes

The whole banking sector is bleeding. Bank of America(BAC) has finally hit the single digits on news that the banking giant needs additional capital. Bank of America is dealing with huge write downs from the Merrill Lynch acquisition. Citigroup is trading at $4 and could easily be headed to zero. I wrote a post a while back that Citigroup’s only hope for survival was as a much smaller entity whose primary function is as a commercial bank. Citigroup finally realized this and is selling off assets including the majority of their Smith Barney stake to Morgan Stanley.

My guess is that these aren’t the only major banks that will need more government funds. Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, PNC Bank and even US Bancorp may need additional TARP money. The more capital that these banks borrow, the more that it dilutes shareholders equity stakes. Who knows if Morgan Stanley has enough liquidity to survive and they just purchased Smith Barney? Can anyone say without a doubt that Goldman Sachs will not need more assistance from the government?

My positions page will always show that I hold shares in Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo because I have physical stock certificates of these companies. I sold the major portion of my bank stocks because I felt they still had significant room to drop. I have never liked Citigroup as an investment. I still believe that Wells Fargo, US Bancorp and JP Morgan will be profitable long term. Bank of America worries me because they are adopting a business model that is eerily similar to Citigroup. Bank of America has a lot riding on the Countrywide and Merrill Lynch acquisitions.

Economists estimate that the banking industry is only halfway through asset write downs. Banks may need to write off 1 trillion dollars more of losses. Banks are facing increasing home loan losses, rising credit card delinquencies and growing commercial loan defaults. As job losses continue to mount they only add to the pressure on bank earnings.

Bank stocks will continue to be under pressure in the near term. No one has a clue as to what bank earnings will look like for the next year. Citigroup is expected to report a 10 billion dollar loss for the 4th quarter alone. That is incredible. I have to admit that this financial crisis is far worse than I originally thought. I expect that dividends will be eliminated and stock prices will easily take out their 52 week lows set in November. Some banks will hold up better than others but the industry as a whole is not pretty.

Photo by woodleywonderworks

Interesting Stocks

Listed below are a few stocks that I have been trading in and out of over the past two months based on when I think shares are cheap.

Bank of America(BAC) dropped to the $10 price level today. As stated in a previous post, I sold off all shares at $17. I am waiting for the stock to hit the single digits and then I will be a big buyer again. A dividend cut is definitely coming. While Bank of America and Citigroup(C) are expected to report big losses for the 4th quarter. Wells Fargo(WFC) and US Bancorp(USB) are expected to be profitable in the 4th quarter.

Alcoa (AA) dropped to $9.50 today. I sold off all of my Alcoa shares at the $12 level because I figured the earnings would be bad. I would be a buyer again at the $7 price level.

General Electric(GE) dropped to $14.70 today. I began adding a small amount of shares again at the $14.90 level. Whenever GE gets below $15, I am a buyer.

United States Oil ETF(USO) is dipping to levels where I would look to add shares. Right now it trades at $31 per share. Below $30 I will look to add shares again.

Intel(INTC) with a 4% dividend yield at $13.57 looks reasonably cheap. I know that technology companies earnings are going to be rough in 2009 but Intel is a good long term investment. I think the stock will get cheaper still and will look to buy at $12.

Bank Mergers

Two banking mergers were officially completed last night. Bank of America(BAC) completed its 19.4 billion dollar merger with Merrill Lynch. Merrill Lynch shareholders will receive 0.8595 shares of BAC stock. Wells Fargo closed its 12.7 billion dollar merger with Wachovia. Wachovia shareholders will receive 0.1991 shares of Wells Fargo stock. I expect that there will be more layoffs as Bank of America and Wells Fargo aim to reduce costs and eliminate job duplication across all levels. Personally I think that Wells got the better deal because they have doubled in size and gained a major presence on the east coast.

Photo by NCinDC

Expecting a dividend cut

Bank of America is currently trading at $12.90 a share and is paying a dividend of $1.28. This equates to a dividend yield of almost 10% which is higher than Bank of America’s earnings per share. The dividend payout ratio is way too high. I am expecting that Bank of America will either cut or eliminate its dividend altogether. BAC cannot pay out such a high percentage of its earnings in the form of dividends when the company is in need of capital. I think that when they announce the dividend cut, the stock will sink further as investors holding the stock for the dividend payout will sell. As stated previously, I sold the majority of my Bank of America shares because of dilution concerns. Dividends may also be in trouble at Morgan Stanley with a yield of 7% and Deutsche Bank yielding 12%.