Banking On Bank Of America

I read an article today about how Bank of America has seen a rise in short interest. Traders are betting against the nation’s largest bank and expecting a decline in price over the short term. While this may be true I think that any weakness in the stock should be looked at as a buying opportunity. I have been buying more Bank of America(BAC) whenever the stock drops to the $15 range. Shorts may temporarily drive the stock lower but I would just look at this as an opportunity to purchase more shares at a cheaper price.

Over the next few quarters Bank of America will be taking billions in write-offs from its home loan portfolio, small business loans and its credit card division. The country’s largest mortgage lender has seen its earnings hurt by foreclosures and loan modifications. Bank of America’ has seen loans in its small business division rise to the high teens. BofA is the nation’s 2nd largest credit issuer and has seen defaults rise to the low teens. 2010 may be a rough year for the banking giant but 2011 and 2012 should be better. The stock trades at 20 times 2010 earnings but just nine times 2011′s estimated earnings. BofA is selling at just 1.3 times tangible book value and should earn close to $3 a share by 2012. While BofA is the riskiest of the three major banks(Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan); I believe that the banking giant has the most upside potential as well.

Earnings Seasons for Financials

Here’s my take on each of the financial companies earnings:

 

Goldman Sachs

It was a great quarter for Goldman Sachs. The investment bank had huge gains from its trading operations and bond offering business. I know that everyone is saying buy Goldman right here and now but I wouldn’t buy the stock at its current levels. The stock is trading at $150 and I would like to know more about the investment bank’s business model will be going forward. Goldman appears to be taking great risks again. Will Goldman’s trading operations be as profitable quarter after quarter? 

 

JPMorgan Chase

JPMorgan Chase had a mixed earnings season. The banking giant saw its margins, trading and deposits go down. JPMorgan increased its loan loss reserves for the quarter as its loan portfolio saw increasing delinquencies. JP Morgan did have strong results from its commercial banking and asset management businesses. Analyst Dick Bove says “The reality is that this was a very bad quarter for JPMorgan Chase.” “Capital gains are the reason for the strong revenue and earnings performance and these are not sustainable.”

 

Bank of America

B of A is my favorite bank because of the upside potential but it is also the bank with the greatest downside risk. Bank of America’s earnings were boosted by its sale of China Construction Bank Corp and its strong deposit base. But the nation’s largest bank is still facing rising charge offs from its commercial, residential and credit card loans. CEO Ken Lewis stated that ”Profitability in the second half of the year will be much tougher than the first half.” He attributed much of the bank’s success to capital gains.

 

Citigroup

I think that Citigroup still faces the same problems that have plagued the company for years. Citi does not have core businesses that make money. If you factor out the sale of Smith Barney to Morgan Stanley, Citi would have lost 2.4 billion in the second quarter. While JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America were all able to generate substantial gains from trading operations, Citi was unable to do the same. The promising news for Citi is that CEO Vikram Pandit stated that troubled asset write downs “may be largely behind us.”  This may be true but I still wouldn’t buy Citi even at $2 per share.

 

Short Term Outlook for 2009

The banking giants were able to post decent results for the second quarter but many of these gains were attributable to capital gains. It is unlikely that these one time gains will be duplicated in coming quarters. Loan losses will continue to grow as unemployment and income levels continue to drop.

 

Long Term Outlook

When unemployment moderates and the economy rebounds, the earnings power of these mega banks will be realized.

Bank of America Analyst Downgrade

Trimmed my position in Bank of America at 15. I still hold a small amount of shares in BAC but I think that a better entry point may arise over the next few weeks. An analyst at Friedman, Billings and Ramsey placed a $9 price target on BAC and thinks that they may need to raise even more capital. BAC has already received $25 billion from the Treasury and raised $10 billion in a stock offering. Recently, BAC issued an additional 8.1 billion in debt.  I normally don’t pay too much attention to analysts opinion but for financial stocks I do. Financial stocks have such difficult balance sheets to understand that I do rely on analysts opinion. It appears that BAC is diluting the stock by borrowing so heavily. I figure that I can get in cheaper after the next capital raise.