Higher Cable Prices Coming

Goodbye free TV. You may soon see a bump in your cable bill coming. Traditional broadcast networks CBS and Fox are now telling cable companies that they will be unable to carry their programming unless they receive a slice of cable carriers ad revenue. Fox was reportedly asking for $1 per subscriber from Time Warner Cable. And who do you think those charges will be passed along too? That’s right!…. you and I. I think that we will see a significant increase in cable and satellite bills over the next decade as networks demand higher programming fees. Prices could rise 7-8% per year as companies pass higher costs along to consumers.

Why are the broadcast networks looking for cable dollars? The business model is broken for traditional media. Until recently ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC used to support their operations through advertising revenue. As cable programming has become more popular market share has shrank for the Big Four. The shrinking market share has led to lower ad revenues as ad dollars have moved to cable and online. Now they are seeking to make up for lost ad revenue by getting a piece of the cable subscription pie.

Here are a few changes that I think will take place in the near future.

(1) You will see more cable providers seek to acquire network stations such as the NBC acquisition by Comcast. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Time Warner Cable make a play for ABC from Disney. This would allow cable companies to save on programming costs over time and gain a competitive advantage over rivals. They could offer the channels to competitors at a higher cost thus making their prices appear discounted. Any competitor that didn’t carry the channel would be at a severe disadvantage.

(2) Cable companies will be forced to unbundle programming. We are currently forced to pay for many channels that we don’t even watch. For example I never watch HLN, Fine Living Network, REEL, Travel Channel, TRU, NASA, Current and JewelryTV but I am forced to pay for these channels anyway. That’s just a few of them. I could come up with at least 50 more channels I never watch. I  think it is only a matter of time before the cash strapped consumer is fed up and looks for other options. Satellite and cable companies could slash programming fees by offering consumers content that they actually want to see.

(3) Traditional broadcast networks will have to utilize streaming media for additional ad revenue. Maybe the broadcast networks join up with the rumored Apple venture to offer television subscriptions over the Internet.

Biggest Winners

So far I have a 22% gain on US Bancorp . I bought shares of USB at $17.70 and the stock has risen to $21.70.

General Electric has risen 24% from its $11 purchase price.

Supervalu (SVU) is up almost 14% from my initial purchase price of $13.13.

Visa is up 25% from the $55 purchase price.

Today’s Moves

Sold ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG) at $21.50. I think oil is close to bottoming out in the low 60′s.

Added additional shares of General Electric (GE) at $10.98. Looks like GE may be headed back to the single digits as well. If it does I will add a lot more.

Finally A Rally!

The Dow is up over 600 points the last 3 days.

General Electric (GE) has risen from the $5 level to the $9.50. I should have bought a lot more when the stock was in the high 5′s. GE rose today despite a ratings downgrade. GE dropped from AAA to AA+. Why is this important? Ratings downgrade raise the cost of obtaining capital in the credit markets. I am hoping that $5.87 was the bottom for GE.

Even American Express (AXP) and Capital One (COF)have risen over 25% the past two days. Both credit card companies still face rising delinquencies and defaults but the stocks appear to have been oversold.  The companies were pummeled to the single digits.

Blue chip companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Pfizer (PFE) and Disney (DIS) have all bounced double digits from their 52 week lows set last week.

PNC Financial (PNC)might be a good short candidate. PNC is trading at $28.55 which is significantly higher than other regional banks like Suntrust and US Bancorp. I know that PNC plans to pay back TARP funds but can they really do that until they know the extent of their real estate losses?

Bleak News

AIG announced the biggest quarterly loss in the history of the US. AIG lost nearly 62 billion last quarter.

Citigroup looks like it is going to break below $1 per share. It’s time for Citigroup to be nationalized. it’s not Pandit’s fault but I don’t see how he can keep his job with the stock in free fall. Can Citi lure any other highly successful competent executive to take this job right now?

General Electric shares dropped below $8 for the first time since 1993.

Dow Chemical dropped to $7 and Dow is trying to sell off its agribusiness to stay afloat. Dow may be the first company to go belly up after completing a merger. The Rohm & Haas purchase is forcing Dow to sell its most valuable assets just to complete the deal.

Financials Slaughtered

Wow! This market is taking a beating. I was looking through companies at their 52 week lows and the list goes on an on. Many of these stocks are trading at prices that would have appeared unfathomable before last year. Some of these companies deserve their low share prices and others have been down unfairly. In this market it is difficult to tell the difference. Here are a few companies trading at or near their 52 week lows:

SunTrust Bank (STI) set a new 52 week low dropping to $7 per share today. There are fears that SunTrust will not pass the government’s stress test and will not qualify for future assistance.

Wells Fargo (WFC) dropped to $13.69 which is its lowest price in 12 years. I am still buying Wells shares because I think that the bank will be saved. It’s hard to have any conviction about any bank stock at these levels.

Capital One (COF) dropped below $10 and American Express (AXP) dropped to $13 amid concerns over rising credit card delinquencies. The pain is just beginning in the credit card industry. This makes me wonder about the credit card portfolios at Citigroup and Bank of America. They have already gotten TARP funds twice; any additional TARP funds may mean that nationalization is coming.

Dow Chemical (DOW) is down to $8.62 per share and now sports a market cap that is almost half of the proposed 15.3 billion dollar purchase price for Rohm & Haas.

United States Oil ETF (USO) is down to $23.45. Oil demand has fallen off a cliff. I don’t know how long this will last but it looks cheap at these levels.

General Electric (GE) is trading at $10.81. It could hit the single digits if the market keeps declining. The stock is yielding 10.80% and looks cheap if held for years.

US Bancorp (USB) hit $10.73 today.

Aflac, GE

Bought 50 more shares of General Electric (GE) at $11.50.

Bought 50 more shares of Aflac (AFL) at $22.

Stock Watchlist

Stocks that I am watching for the coming week:

Electronic Arts (ERTS) announces earnings tomorrow after the bell. The stock has dropped to its 52 week low price of $14.66. I will be interested to see what the company’s earnings were for the past quarter. I still think that the EA franchise has value and if the shares stay around this level; it may be a buying opportunity.

General Electric (GE) set a new 52 week low today at $11.51. I have been accumulating GE shares at $11.87 and below recently. I know that GE Finance is 40% of GE’s earnings and that they are divesting themselves of some of their businesses. But I have a hard time seeing GE as a $12 stock 5 or 10 years from now. I am getting more concerned about the dividend as the stock drops. The shares either need to rise back to $15 or the dividend is gone. A 10% yield just cannot last.

There is a lot of talk about Wells Fargo (WFC) needing to slash its dividend. I honestly don’t know if this is true or not. Banks have such convoluted financial statements and so many off the balance sheet items that they make evaluating their financial position difficult. I have been disappointed by bank stocks before so it wouldn’t shock me. Wells remains a stock that I continue to buy for the long term.

Dow Chemical(DOW) hit the $10 level today. The stock dropped to$10.95. Tomorrow is probably the day when Dow will announce at least a 50% dividend cut. Dow is expected to announce earnings between 6 and 7 cents a share. This cannot support a dividend of $1.68 with a 14.5% yield. An interesting side note is that Dow Chemical has a market cap of 10 billion dollars. If Dow is forced to buy Rohm & Haas at the 15.3 billion dollar price, Dow will be buying a company that is worth 50% more than Dow. This deal would potentially bankrupt Dow.

Friday’s Buys

Added 650 more shares of XLF at $8.85 to bring total to 1000 shares. I like this financial sector ETF.

Added 360 more shares of GE at $11.95. General Electric has been crushed.

Sold all of UYG at $3.15 for a 10% profit. Leveraged ETF’s are only for trading not for investing.

Sold all of UCO at $12.70 for a 15% gain. Another leveraged ETF.

Top Stocks for 2009

Here are three interesting articles on the top stock picks for 2009. Use these lists with caution as stock picking websites can be just as wrong as they are right.

Smart Money Top Stocks for 2009 - Stocks that I like on this list are Duke Energy(DUK), Microsoft(MSFT), Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), General Electric(GE). None of these stocks are high growers but are best of breed dividend paying stocks.

Motley Fool Best Stocks for 2009 - Exxon Mobil(XOM) and Costco(COST) are the stocks that I like on this list.

Forbes 17 stocks for 2009 - Not a fan of any of these companies one way or another but the column is worth reading.

I currently own shares of GE, Costco and Microsoft.