Warren Buffett & His 300% Investment Return

Warren Buffett appears to have failed in his attempt to buy Constellation Energy Group (CEG) for 4.7 billion dollars. MidAmerican Energy, Buffett’s company, agreed to purchase CEG for $26.50 a share in September. Constellation Energy terminated this agreement yesterday and accepted an offer from Electricite De Franc(EDF) for 4.9 billion dollars. EDF will purchase 50% of Constellation Energy’s nuclear power holdings and allow CEG to remain an independent company.

I took particular interest in this transaction because I owned stock in Constellation Energy and they are my hometown utility company. You would think that Buffett would be upset about being outbid for Constellation Energy. Think again. Buffett will walk away from his attempted acquisition of Constellation Energy with a 300% return on his investment.

Buffett will receive 418 million dollars in cash, 175 million in termination fees, 460 million in CEG stock and he gets his 1 billion dollar investment back. He will also earn an additional 140 million in interest over the next year while awaiting repayment of his investment. Buffett stands to make over 1 billion dollars on his original investment in less than four months. That is a return of 300 percent on an annual basis.

The brilliance of Warren Buffett is his ability to win in just about every investment that he makes. He buys distressed companies that are selling well below their true value. Buffett has a unique ability to see opportunity where others see calamity. This explains Buffett’s investment of 5 billion dollars in preferred stock and 5 billion dollar in warrants exercisable at $115 in Goldman Sachs. And Buffett’s 3 billion dollar preferred stock investment in General Electric with 3 billion in warrants exercisable at $22.25. Buffett invested in GE and Goldman at a time when they were in desperate need of capital.

Buffett was derided in October for his declaration that he was investing in US companies when others were pulling out. He has been putting money to work while others have fled for the safety of U.S. Treasuries. Time will tell if Buffett’s thesis is correct. Warren Buffett’s recent investment purchases may look risky right now but as history shows you shouldn’t bet against him.

GE Stock Position Update

I sold off some of my GE stock position because the stock has gained over $4 a share in less than three weeks. The stock has advanced much faster than I originally thought.  I still like the company long term but I figured I should take the 20% gain.

November Holdings Update

At the end of every month I will look at how my investments posted on this blog have done.

 

Stock Name                                     Cost Basis                                     Closing Price

Alcoa                                                 $10.03                                            $10.76                    

General Electric                                 $15.15                                            $17.17

Ingersoll Rand                                   $16.34                                            $15.68

Intel                                                  $13.80                                            $13.80

 

As of November 30, 2008 I have a gain on Alcoa and General Electric. I have a loss on Ingersoll Rand and would break even on Intel. 

Started a position in Bank of America, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo.

Stock update

Purchased an additional 100 shares of GE stock today right before the market close Thursday at $12.60 price. The stock is risky but I think it is significantly undervalued.

Is GE a buy?

 

I have been watching General Electric’s stock for the past few months as it’s value has declined significantly. Warren Buffett recently bought 3 billion dollars of GE preferred stock yielding 10% and has the option to buy 3 billion dollars worth of more shares at $22.25 over the next five years. This plays right into Buffett’s philosophy of investing in companies with a wide economic moat. The GE name and its diverse array of industrial and financial businesses are a major competitive advantage. The stock is currently trading at about $15.50 a share. The stock has declined about 60% from its 52 week high of $38.67. I am not a huge fan of General Electric but at its current level it is an intriguing stock. GE currently pays a dividend of $1.24 which is a 7.7% yield. I have wondered if the dividend is safe. GE’s management made an announcement last week that they will pay the dividend through 2009. So I will take them at their word.  Could GE decline below $15.50 in the near time? Yes. But I have a hard time believing that this industrial conglomerate will not be worth more than $15.50 a share in the future. I believe that the company is trading at a discount to its intrinsic value, So I purchased 250 shares of GE stock at below $16. In my opinion, any pullbacks below the current price are buying opportunities.