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Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.

GO · Consumer Discretionary · $884M mkt cap · FY2025 filings · No moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

No moat
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The five investor questions

60

2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $3.1B to $4.7B, increasing; diluted EPS 0.63 to -2.30, decreasing.

54

Median gross margin 30.5% over 9y, very stable.

6

Median ROIC 5.4%, above the 12% hurdle in 11% of years.

28

Net debt/EBITDA n/ax, interest coverage 0x.

24

Owner earnings changed trend unclear over up to the ten most recent annual observations.

Price vs. value if growth stopped today

A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.

Above value if growth stopped todayBelow value if growth stopped today
28% above value if growth stopped today
$62.3M
$7.05
$7.05
$9.01
28% above value if growth stopped today

What today’s price assumes: owner earnings growing ~5%/yr over 5 years. The zero-growth estimate assumes owner earnings stay flat (0% growth).

How to read this

We solve for the constant annual change in owner earnings that would make the five-year zero-growth estimate equal today’s price. This keeps the existing model inputs and calculation unchanged; it is an expectations lens, not a forecast.

This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. The recent FY revenue series does not trigger the three-consecutive-declines flag.

Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 239% above the zero-growth estimate across 48 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.

Score records captured Jul 26, 2026.

Exactly which 50 companies?

FTNT, META, MEDP, IBEX, MSFT, GOOGL, LULU, ANF, IDXX, TXRH, FHI, QLYS, FFIV, ADBE, LLY, MANH, VEEV, GRMN, SSD, MNST, DOCS, MCO, CPRT, NTAP, LRCX, NVDA, CORT, SFM, MPTI, ULTA, SN, RMD, ROL, PAYC, IRMD, INTU, DECK, MORN, LGCY, DAL, GWW, ISRG, MPWR, CTAS, LOPE, MRK, CMG, FAST, BKNG, ORLY

Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF, BKNG.

Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 0% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.

10 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. booked $4.7B of revenue in FY2025 in the Consumer Discretionary sector and kept 30.3% of it as gross profit — a moderate-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, −4.8% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.

Across the filed record, revenue grew from $2.1B (FY2017) to $4.7B (FY2025) — about 10.7% a year compounded over 8 years.

It earned −12.4% on invested capital in the latest filed year, FY2025. Across the full 9-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was 5.4%. Over the v3 recent window (9 measurable filed years), median ROIC was 5.4%. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 6/100.

The balance sheet carried $493M of total debt in FY2025. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 28/100.

Put together: Business Trend is the strongest of the five filters (60/100) and Returns on Capital the weakest (6/100), which is how GO lands at 34/100 — a None moat.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

FY2016–FY2025 · 10 fiscal years, normalized from GO’s SEC filings

Sales, as filed$4.7B FY2025
$0$2B$4B2016201920222025
Revenue kept after cost of goods30.3% FY2025
0%20%2016201920222025
Standard ROIC or separately labeled Operating ROICROIC −12.4% FY2025
0%2016201920222025
Cash an owner could take out−$225M FY2025
−$200M$02016201920222025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in GO’s filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Flagship explainer

How Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. makes its money

Start with a dollar of revenue and follow what the filing says remains.

revenueBranching filed flows with values and percentages directly labeled. Missing filing concepts are omitted rather than estimated.Revenue$4.7B · 100%Cost of revenue$3.3B · 70%Gross profit$1.4B · 30%Operating income−$222M · −5%Income before tax−$249M · −5%Income tax−$24.3M · −1%Net income−$225M · −5%As of 2026-01-03 · 2 SEC filing sourcesBuy Like Buffett · buylikebuffett.com

Honest partial: the filing did not provide a normalized tag for Research and development, Selling, general and administrative; those components are omitted, not plugged.

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of revenueSource
$4.7B100%
Cost of revenue$3.3B70%
$1.4B30%
−$222M−5%
Income before tax−$249M−5%
Income tax−$24.3M−1%
−$225M−5%
Source: · event Jan 3, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set
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Flagship explainer

What Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. owns — and owes

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s filing tags don't support a full breakdown — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of assetsSource
Total assets$3.1B100%
Cash and equivalents$69.6M2%
$493M16%
Stockholders’ equity$984M32%
Source: · event Jan 3, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What drives Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.’s return on equity?

ROE is five filed business factors multiplied together.

DuPont return on equity factor treeReturn on equity branches into tax burden, interest burden, operating margin, asset turnover, and the equity multiplier.Return on equity−21%Tax burden90%net income ÷ pretax incomeInterest burden112%pretax ÷ operating incomeOperating margin−5%operating income ÷ revenueAsset turnover1.50×revenue ÷ average assetsEquity multiplier2.87×average assets ÷ average equityAs of 2026-01-03 · 3 SEC filing sourcesBuy Like Buffett · buylikebuffett.com
DuPont source inputs
InputValueFiscal yearSource
−$225MFY2025
Income before tax−$249MFY2025
Operating income−$222MFY2025
$4.7BFY2025
Ending assets$3.1BFY2025
Beginning assets$3.2BFY2024
$984MFY2025
$1.2BFY2024
Source:
  • SEC filingFiling detailsAccession 0001771515-25-000017
  • SEC filingFiling detailsAccession 0001771515-26-000015
· event Jan 3, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set
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Flagship explainer

Where Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s cash went

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.’s filing does not supply enough provenance-matched cash-flow lines for a truthful flow chart — here’s what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of cash from operationsSource
Cash from operations$222M100%
Depreciation and amortization$129M58%
Source: · event Jan 3, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Curated 19-manager tier

Who reported holding Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.

Delayed public 13F reports for 2026-Q2—not live positions, trades, or recommendations.

0 holding0 exited1 not holding1/19 resolved18 unavailable

Named manager positions and quarter-over-quarter changes
ManagerReported positionQuarter-over-quarterFiling accession
Markel / Markel-GaynerNo position reportedNo position reported
Abrams CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Akre CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Baupost GroupUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Berkshire HathawayUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Brave Warrior AdvisorsUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Dodge & CoxUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
First EagleUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
FundsmithUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Gardner Russo & QuinnUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Gates Foundation TrustUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Mairs & PowerUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Oakmark / Harris AssociatesUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Pershing SquareUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Polen CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Sequoia / Ruane CunniffUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Southeastern Asset ManagementUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Tweedy, BrowneUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Yacktman Asset ManagementUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable

Position size uses shares and filed value from each manager’s 13F. Portfolio weight uses the eligible long-share filing denominator. Changes compare only with the immediately preceding calendar quarter.

Source: · event Jun 30, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026

Flagship explainer

What Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. insiders reported

Records still being gathered — partial as of retrieval Aug 17, 2026.

Partial coverage: the incomplete Form 4 walk cannot establish no activity, an activity date, or zero counts.

Moat Score history

16 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale34.3 / 100
0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatJul 17, 2026Jul 26, 2026

Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.

Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

  1. Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)moat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
  2. Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0moat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
  3. Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0moat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Insider activity

Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”

These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.

This machine-readable surface covers SEC ownership filings from 2003; it does not represent earlier paper-era records.

Records still being gathered — partial as of retrieval Aug 17, 2026.

Trailing-12-month totals and the 90-day cluster result are withheld because this issuer walk is incomplete.

No reported Form 4 rows were captured for GO; the incomplete walk cannot establish zero activity, zero counts, or a negative cluster result.

A filing source-event date will appear when a Form 4 row is captured.

Retrieved .

Consumer Discretionary context

#359 of 487 scored Consumer Discretionary companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

  1. #357NORD NORDICUS PARTNERS CORPORATION34.5No moat
  2. #358WYNN WYNN RESORTS LTD34.3No moat
  3. #360MG Mistras Group, Inc.34.1No moat
  4. #361BIAF BIOAFFINITY TECHNOLOGIES, INC.33.9No moat

Compare GO with its nearest peers →All Consumer Discretionary companies on the Index →

Common questions about GO

Does Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) 34.3 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 60, pricing power 54, returns on capital 6, balance-sheet safety 28, capital allocation 24.
Is GO trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
The value if growth stopped today — a zero-growth baseline — is $7.05 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate and assumes 0% growth. Versus a recent price of $9.01, that is 28% above value if growth stopped today. The model also publishes a capped-growth comparison, but the zero-growth estimate is the cautious baseline. It assumes trailing owner earnings persist and is unreliable for declining businesses. This is an educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
How has GO's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 16 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 34.3 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell GO. See the disclaimer.