Does Harley-Davidson, Inc. have an economic moat?

Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) 37.8 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The four filters behind that score (each 0–100): pricing power 35, returns on capital 12, balance-sheet safety 79, capital discipline 40.

Is HOG stock trading below its intrinsic value?

Against a deliberately conservative owner-earnings model (9% discount rate, 0% assumed growth, capped at 4%), estimated intrinsic value is $69.16 per share versus a recent price of $26.58 — 62% below value. This is an educational estimate computed from primary SEC filings, not investment advice.

How has HOG's Moat Score changed over time?

The record logs 3 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 37.8 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

The Moat Index

Harley-Davidson, Inc.

HOG · Consumer Discretionary · $3.0B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · No moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

No moat

The four filters

Pricing power35

Median gross margin 31.5% over 10y, variable.

Returns on capital12

Median ROIC 7.0%, above the 9% hurdle in 10% of years.

Balance-sheet safety79

Net cash position — no leverage risk.

Capital discipline40

Owner earnings -7.1%/yr, share count shrinking (buybacks).

Margin of safety

Above valueOn sale

62% below value

Owner earnings (normalized): $695.0M
Est. intrinsic value / share: $69.16
Recent price: $26.58
Discount to value: 62% below value

Conservative model: 9% discount rate, 0% assumed growth (capped at 4%), maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A).

20 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Harley-Davidson, Inc. booked $3.6B of revenue in FY2025 in the Consumer Discretionary sector and kept 23.9% of it as gross profit — a moderate-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, 9.4% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.

Across the filed record, revenue shrank from $6.1B (FY2007) to $3.6B (FY2025) — about −2.9% a year compounded over 18 years.

It earned 9.2% on invested capital in FY2025, with a median of 9.2% across 19 filed years. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 12/100.

The balance sheet carried $3.0B of total debt in FY2025 against $357.4M of owner earnings — roughly 8.3 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 79/100.

The share count fell 52.3% between FY2009 and FY2025 — management has been retiring shares, which concentrates each remaining owner's claim. Capital Discipline scores it 40/100.

Put together: Balance-Sheet Safety is the strongest of the four filters (79/100) and Returns on Capital the weakest (12/100), which is how HOG lands at 38/100 — a None moat.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

RevenueSales, as filed$3.6B FY2025

Gross marginRevenue kept after cost of goods23.9% FY2025

Return on invested capitalOperating profit on the capital employed9.2% FY2025

Owner earningsCash an owner could take out$357.4M FY2025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in HOG’s filings for that year — the series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Moat Score history

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale37.8 / 100

Score history begins Jul 17, 2026 — the record builds from here and can’t be backfilled.

Tier changesSame-methodology crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

None yet — HOG has read No moat for every logged capture since Jul 17, 2026.

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record can’t be backfilled, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Consumer Discretionary context

#228 of 340 scored Consumer Discretionary companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

#226PBSV PHARMA-BIO SERV, INC.38.1 out of 100, No moatNo moat
#227III Information Services Group Inc.38.1 out of 100, No moatNo moat
#229AIN ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP.37.7 out of 100, No moatNo moat
#230BNED BARNES & NOBLE EDUCATION, INC.37.5 out of 100, No moatNo moat

Compare HOG with its nearest peers →All Consumer Discretionary companies on the Index →

Common questions about HOG

Does Harley-Davidson, Inc. have an economic moat?: Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) 37.8 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The four filters behind that score (each 0–100): pricing power 35, returns on capital 12, balance-sheet safety 79, capital discipline 40.
Is HOG stock trading below its intrinsic value?: Against a deliberately conservative owner-earnings model (9% discount rate, 0% assumed growth, capped at 4%), estimated intrinsic value is $69.16 per share versus a recent price of $26.58 — 62% below value. This is an educational estimate computed from primary SEC filings, not investment advice.
How has HOG's Moat Score changed over time?: The record logs 3 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 37.8 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

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Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell HOG. See the disclaimer.