Does MOSAIC CO have an economic moat?

Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores MOSAIC CO (MOS) 22.9 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The four filters behind that score (each 0–100): pricing power 0, returns on capital 7, balance-sheet safety 23, capital discipline 81.

Is MOS stock trading below its intrinsic value?

Against a deliberately conservative owner-earnings model (9% discount rate, 0% assumed growth, capped at 4%), estimated intrinsic value is $40.78 per share versus a recent price of $22.13 — 46% below value. This is an educational estimate computed from primary SEC filings, not investment advice.

How has MOS's Moat Score changed over time?

The record logs 3 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 22.9 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

The Moat Index

MOSAIC CO

MOS · Materials · $7.0B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · No moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

No moat

The four filters

Pricing power0

Median gross margin 14.6% over 10y, variable.

Returns on capital7

Median ROIC 3.1%, above the 9% hurdle in 20% of years.

Balance-sheet safety23

Net debt/EBITDA 2.6x, interest coverage 3x.

Capital discipline81

Owner earnings +6.9%/yr, share count shrinking (buybacks).

Margin of safety

Above valueOn sale

46% below value

Owner earnings (normalized): $1.2B
Est. intrinsic value / share: $40.78
Recent price: $22.13
Discount to value: 46% below value

Conservative model: 9% discount rate, 0% assumed growth (capped at 4%), maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A).

18 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

MOSAIC CO booked $12.1B of revenue in FY2025 in the Materials sector and kept 15.8% of it as gross profit — a thin-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, 4.5% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.

Across the filed record, revenue grew from $10.3B (FY2009) to $12.1B (FY2025) — about 1.0% a year compounded over 16 years.

It earned 3.2% on invested capital in FY2025, with a median of 9.2% across 17 filed years. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 7/100.

The balance sheet carried $5.1B of total debt in FY2025 against $540.7M of owner earnings — roughly 9.3 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 23/100.

The share count fell 25.4% between FY2012 and FY2025 — management has been retiring shares, which concentrates each remaining owner's claim. Capital Discipline scores it 81/100.

Put together: Capital Discipline is the strongest of the four filters (81/100) and Pricing Power the weakest (0/100), which is how MOS lands at 23/100 — a None moat.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

RevenueSales, as filed$12.1B FY2025

Gross marginRevenue kept after cost of goods15.8% FY2025

Return on invested capitalOperating profit on the capital employed3.2% FY2025

Owner earningsCash an owner could take out$540.7M FY2025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in MOS’s filings for that year — the series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Moat Score history

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale22.9 / 100

Score history begins Jul 17, 2026 — the record builds from here and can’t be backfilled.

Tier changesSame-methodology crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

None yet — MOS has read No moat for every logged capture since Jul 17, 2026.

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record can’t be backfilled, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Materials context

#173 of 214 scored Materials companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

#171RIG Transocean Ltd.23.4 out of 100, No moatNo moat
#172ALB Albemarle Corporation23.1 out of 100, No moatNo moat
#174LQMT LIQUIDMETAL TECHNOLOGIES INC22.5 out of 100, No moatNo moat
#175DYNR DYNARESOURCE, INC.22.3 out of 100, No moatNo moat

Compare MOS with its nearest peers →All Materials companies on the Index →

Common questions about MOS

Does MOSAIC CO have an economic moat?: Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores MOSAIC CO (MOS) 22.9 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The four filters behind that score (each 0–100): pricing power 0, returns on capital 7, balance-sheet safety 23, capital discipline 81.
Is MOS stock trading below its intrinsic value?: Against a deliberately conservative owner-earnings model (9% discount rate, 0% assumed growth, capped at 4%), estimated intrinsic value is $40.78 per share versus a recent price of $22.13 — 46% below value. This is an educational estimate computed from primary SEC filings, not investment advice.
How has MOS's Moat Score changed over time?: The record logs 3 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 22.9 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

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Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell MOS. See the disclaimer.