AUTOLIV, INC.
ALV · Consumer Discretionary · $8.7B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · · Narrow moat ·
On the watchlist
The five investor questions
2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $8.2B to $10.8B, increasing; diluted EPS 4.96 to 9.55, increasing.
Median gross margin 18.5% over 10y, stable.
Median ROIC 13.9%, above the 12% hurdle in 90% of years.
Net debt/EBITDA 1.0x, interest coverage 11x.
Owner earnings changed +2.9%/yr over up to the ten most recent annual observations.
Price vs. value if growth stopped today
A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.
- $488M
- $72.59
- $117.59
- $115.96
- 60% above value if growth stopped today
What today’s price assumes: owner earnings growing ~10%/yr over 5 years. The zero-growth estimate assumes owner earnings stay flat (0% growth).
How to read this
We solve for the constant annual change in owner earnings that would make the five-year zero-growth estimate equal today’s price. This keeps the existing model inputs and calculation unchanged; it is an expectations lens, not a forecast.
This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. The recent FY revenue series does not trigger the three-consecutive-declines flag.
Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 255% above the zero-growth estimate across 49 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.
Score records captured Oct 16, 2026.
Exactly which 50 companies?
FTNT, IBEX, META, MEDP, MSFT, GOOG, LULU, ANF, IDXX, TXRH, FHI, QLYS, FFIV, ADBE, LLY, MANH, CPRT, VEEV, RMD, GRMN, PCTY, EAT, UI, SSD, MNST, DOCS, LRCX, MCO, NTAP, NVDA, CORT, SFM, MPTI, ULTA, SN, ROL, CTAS, PAYC, IRMD, DECK, MORN, INTU, JKHY, TPR, LGCY, DAL, GWW, ISRG, MPWR, LOPE
Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF.
Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 4% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.
19 years of fundamentals
The business, in plain English
AUTOLIV, INC. booked $10.8B of revenue in FY2025 in the Consumer Discretionary sector and kept 19.2% of it as gross profit — a moderate-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, 6.8% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.
Across the filed record, revenue grew from $6.5B (FY2008) to $10.8B (FY2025) — about 3.1% a year compounded over 17 years.
It earned 19.7% on invested capital in the latest filed year, FY2025. Across the full 18-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was 13.9%. Over the v3 recent window (10 measurable filed years), median ROIC was 13.9%. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 70/100.
The balance sheet carried $2.2B of total debt in FY2025 against $735M of owner earnings — roughly 2.9 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 62/100.
Put together: Business Trend is the strongest of the five filters (94/100) and Pricing Power the weakest (29/100), which is how ALV lands at 65/100 — a Narrow moat.
This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.
Exact FY and FY-1 financing invested-capital inputs are required.
The explained ROIC gaps have filed inputs but no meaningful positive invested-capital denominator. Other gaps mean the item is not in the filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.
Visual explainers
The filing-backed explainer service is temporarily unavailable, so no partial or guessed chart is shown.
Moat Score history
Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.
Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars
- Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)tomoat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
- Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0tomoat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
- Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0tomoat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026
Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.
Insider activity
Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”
These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.
The insider-filing service is temporarily unavailable, so no partial or guessed answer is shown for ALV.
Consumer Discretionary context
#104 of 487 scored Consumer Discretionary companies, ranked by Moat Score.
Nearest peers by Moat Score
- #102PSMT PriceSmart, Inc.65.3 out of 100, Narrow moatNarrow moat
- #103PZZA PAPA JOHN’S INTERNATIONAL, INC.64.8 out of 100, Narrow moatNarrow moat
- #105PAG Penske Automotive Group, Inc.64.3 out of 100, Narrow moatNarrow moat
- #106WLDN WILLDAN GROUP, INC.64.2 out of 100, Narrow moatNarrow moat
Compare ALV with its nearest peers →All Consumer Discretionary companies on the Index →
Common questions about ALV
- Does AUTOLIV, INC. have an economic moat?
- Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores AUTOLIV, INC. (ALV) 64.8 out of 100 — a Narrow moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 94, pricing power 29, returns on capital 70, balance-sheet safety 62, capital allocation 68.
- Is ALV trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
- The value if growth stopped today — a zero-growth baseline — is $72.59 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate and assumes 0% growth. Versus a recent price of $115.96, that is 60% above value if growth stopped today. The model also publishes a capped-growth comparison, but the zero-growth estimate is the cautious baseline. It assumes trailing owner earnings persist and is unreliable for declining businesses. This is an educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
- How has ALV's Moat Score changed over time?
- The record logs 29 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 64.8 out of 100 (narrow moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.