HF SINCLAIR CORPORATION
DINO · Industrials · $15.9B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · · not refreshed in 35 days · Shallow moat ·
Price verdict withheld — value if growth stopped today unreliable
The five investor questions
2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $18.4B to $26.9B, increasing; diluted EPS 3.39 to 3.08, decreasing.
Median gross margin 18.7% over 4y, stable.
Median ROIC 7.1%, above the 12% hurdle in 33% of years.
Net debt/EBITDA 1.0x, interest coverage 4x.
Owner earnings changed trend unclear over up to the ten most recent annual observations.
Price vs. value if growth stopped today
A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.
- $1.0B
- $64.04
- $64.04
- $88.30
- 38% above value if growth stopped today
What today’s price assumes: owner earnings growing ~7%/yr over 5 years. The zero-growth estimate assumes owner earnings stay flat (0% growth).
How to read this
We solve for the constant annual change in owner earnings that would make the five-year zero-growth estimate equal today’s price. This keeps the existing model inputs and calculation unchanged; it is an expectations lens, not a forecast.
This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. DINO revenue fell in each of the three most recent year-over-year FY comparisons, so this estimate is flagged as unreliable for this company.
Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 239% above the zero-growth estimate across 48 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.
Score records captured Jul 26, 2026.
Exactly which 50 companies?
FTNT, META, MEDP, IBEX, MSFT, GOOGL, LULU, ANF, IDXX, TXRH, FHI, QLYS, FFIV, ADBE, LLY, MANH, VEEV, GRMN, SSD, MNST, DOCS, MCO, CPRT, NTAP, LRCX, NVDA, CORT, SFM, MPTI, ULTA, SN, RMD, ROL, PAYC, IRMD, INTU, DECK, MORN, LGCY, DAL, GWW, ISRG, MPWR, CTAS, LOPE, MRK, CMG, FAST, BKNG, ORLY
Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF, BKNG.
Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 0% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.
7 years of fundamentals
The business, in plain English
Across the filed record, revenue grew from $11.2B (FY2020) to $26.9B (FY2025) — about 19.2% a year compounded over 5 years.
It earned 6.8% on invested capital in the latest filed year, FY2025. Across the full 6-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was 7.1%. Over the v3 recent window (6 measurable filed years), median ROIC was 7.1%. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 21/100.
The balance sheet carried $2.8B of total debt in FY2025 against $1.0B of owner earnings — roughly 2.7 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 47/100.
Put together: Capital Allocation is the strongest of the five filters (60/100) and Returns on Capital the weakest (21/100), which is how DINO lands at 41/100 — a Shallow moat.
This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.
Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in DINO’s filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.
Visual explainers
The filing-backed explainer service is temporarily unavailable, so no partial or guessed chart is shown.
Moat Score history
Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.
Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars
- Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)tomoat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
- Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0tomoat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
- Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0tomoat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026
Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.
Insider activity
Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”
These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.
The insider-filing service is temporarily unavailable, so no partial or guessed answer is shown for DINO.
Track record
How HF SINCLAIR CORPORATION’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.
How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored DINO on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.
Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The price path is a total-return (dividends reinvested) index built from the same data the forward returns use; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.
What followed, in the years it rated Wide
In the reconstructed history shown, DINO did not rate Wide-moat in any year, so there is no wide-moat track record to report. That absence is itself the honest answer — we don’t manufacture a comparison where the rating never earned one.
Industrials context
#241 of 446 scored Industrials companies, ranked by Moat Score.
Nearest peers by Moat Score
- #239LIND LINDBLAD EXPEDITIONS HOLDINGS, INC.41.2 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
- #240RELL RICHARDSON ELECTRONICS, LTD.41.1 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
- #242GLW CORNING INC /NY41.0 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
- #243SLGN SILGAN HOLDINGS INC40.6 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
Compare DINO with its nearest peers →All Industrials companies on the Index →
Common questions about DINO
- Does HF SINCLAIR CORPORATION have an economic moat?
- Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores HF SINCLAIR CORPORATION (DINO) 41.1 out of 100 — a Shallow moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 50, pricing power 27, returns on capital 21, balance-sheet safety 47, capital allocation 60.
- Is DINO trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
- The value if growth stopped today — a zero-growth baseline — is $64.04 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate and assumes 0% growth. Versus a recent price of $88.30, that is 38% above value if growth stopped today. The model also publishes a capped-growth comparison, but the zero-growth estimate is the cautious baseline. It assumes trailing owner earnings persist and is unreliable for declining businesses. This is an educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
- How has DINO's Moat Score changed over time?
- The record logs 12 readings since Jul 18, 2026; the latest reads 41.1 out of 100 (shallow moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.