Does HF SINCLAIR CORPORATION have an economic moat?

Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores HF SINCLAIR CORPORATION (DINO) 35.8 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The four filters behind that score (each 0–100): pricing power 27, returns on capital 21, balance-sheet safety 47, capital discipline 60.

Is DINO stock trading below its intrinsic value?

Against a deliberately conservative owner-earnings model (9% discount rate, 4% assumed growth, capped at 4%), estimated intrinsic value is $103.74 per share versus a recent price of $88.59 — 15% below value. This is an educational estimate computed from primary SEC filings, not investment advice.

How has DINO's Moat Score changed over time?

The record logs 1 reading since Jul 18, 2026; the latest reads 35.8 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

The Moat Index

HF SINCLAIR CORPORATION

DINO · Industrials · $16.0B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · No moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

No moat

The four filters

Pricing power27

Median gross margin 18.7% over 4y, stable.

Returns on capital21

Median ROIC 7.1%, above the 9% hurdle in 33% of years.

Balance-sheet safety47

Net debt/EBITDA 1.0x, interest coverage 4x.

Capital discipline60

Owner earnings trend unclear, share count shrinking (buybacks).

Margin of safety

Above valueOn sale

15% below value

Owner earnings (normalized): $1.0B
Est. intrinsic value / share: $103.74
Recent price: $88.59
Discount to value: 15% below value

Conservative model: 9% discount rate, 4% assumed growth (capped at 4%), maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A).

7 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Across the filed record, revenue grew from $11.2B (FY2020) to $26.9B (FY2025) — about 19.2% a year compounded over 5 years.

It earned 6.8% on invested capital in FY2025, with a median of 7.1% across 6 filed years. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 21/100.

The balance sheet carried $2.8B of total debt in FY2025 against $1.0B of owner earnings — roughly 2.7 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 47/100.

Put together: Capital Discipline is the strongest of the four filters (60/100) and Returns on Capital the weakest (21/100), which is how DINO lands at 36/100 — a None moat.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

RevenueSales, as filed$26.9B FY2025

Gross marginRevenue kept after cost of goods19.3% FY2023

Return on invested capitalOperating profit on the capital employed6.8% FY2025

Owner earningsCash an owner could take out$1.0B FY2025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in DINO’s filings for that year — the series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Moat Score history

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale35.8 / 100

Score history begins Jul 18, 2026 — the record builds from here and can’t be backfilled.

Tier changesSame-methodology crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

None yet — DINO has read No moat for every logged capture since Jul 18, 2026.

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record can’t be backfilled, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Track record

How HF SINCLAIR CORPORATION’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.

As-of Moat Score (dot colored by tier)Indexed price (total-return (dividends reinvested))Rated Wide-moat that year

How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored DINO on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.

Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The price path is a total-return (dividends reinvested) index built from the same data the forward returns use; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.

What followed, in the years it rated Wide

In the reconstructed history shown, DINO did not rate Wide-moat in any year, so there is no wide-moat track record to report. That absence is itself the honest answer — we don’t manufacture a comparison where the rating never earned one.

Industrials context

#179 of 327 scored Industrials companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

#177UEIC UNIVERSAL ELECTRONICS INC.36.3 out of 100, No moatNo moat
#178GNSS GENASYS INC.36.1 out of 100, No moatNo moat
#180LIND LINDBLAD EXPEDITIONS HOLDINGS, INC.35.6 out of 100, No moatNo moat
#181RCL ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD35.4 out of 100, No moatNo moat

Compare DINO with its nearest peers →All Industrials companies on the Index →

Common questions about DINO

Does HF SINCLAIR CORPORATION have an economic moat?: Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores HF SINCLAIR CORPORATION (DINO) 35.8 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The four filters behind that score (each 0–100): pricing power 27, returns on capital 21, balance-sheet safety 47, capital discipline 60.
Is DINO stock trading below its intrinsic value?: Against a deliberately conservative owner-earnings model (9% discount rate, 4% assumed growth, capped at 4%), estimated intrinsic value is $103.74 per share versus a recent price of $88.59 — 15% below value. This is an educational estimate computed from primary SEC filings, not investment advice.
How has DINO's Moat Score changed over time?: The record logs 1 reading since Jul 18, 2026; the latest reads 35.8 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

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Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell DINO. See the disclaimer.