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The Moat Index · Paper portfolio

The Paper Moat Portfolio.

A transparent, rules-only model portfolio: every year we equal-weight the 50 widest economic moats by our Moat Score and hold them until the next reconstitution. The rule is the manager — no name is ever added, dropped, or weighted by hand. We publish the rule up front, date every change, and benchmark it fairly against Berkshire Hathaway.

This is a paper portfolio — a hypothetical, for learning. No money is invested, and nothing here is investment advice, a recommendation, or a prediction. It is not a “beat the market” claim: on a fair, dividend-inclusive benchmark, a broad quality screen like this has roughly kept pace at similar risk. Distinct from Score My Portfolio (your own holdings, in your browser).

● Live recordReal dates, updated nightly, append-only from launch day. This is what the rule has actually done since the fund went live — no retroactive reconstruction.
+9.7%equal-weight, total return · 50/50 priced
+3.2%total return, dividends included — a like-for-like bar

Priced at the close of Sep 2, 2026, updated nightly. Inception Jul 23, 2026. This is a paper portfolio — no money is invested, and there are no costs, taxes, or slippage in these figures.

#CompanyBought
1FORTINET, INC.FTNT2.0%Jul 23, 20261.7%
2Meta Platforms, Inc.META2.0%Jul 23, 2026−1.9%
3Medpace Holdings, Inc.MEDP2.0%Jul 23, 2026−2.2%
4IBEX LIMITEDIBEX2.0%Jul 23, 202620.0%
5MICROSOFT CORPORATIONMSFT2.0%Jul 23, 202630.6%
6Alphabet Inc.GOOGL2.0%Jul 23, 20265.0%
7lululemon athletica inc.LULU2.0%Jul 23, 20268.5%
8Abercrombie & Fitch Co.ANF2.0%Jul 23, 202648.1%
9IDEXX LABORATORIES INC /DEIDXX2.0%Jul 23, 20260.2%
10Texas Roadhouse, Inc.TXRH2.0%Jul 23, 20260.0%
11Federated Hermes, Inc.FHI2.0%Jul 23, 20266.2%
12QUALYS, INC.QLYS2.0%Jul 23, 202627.1%
13F5, INC.FFIV2.0%Jul 23, 2026−0.9%
14ADOBE INC.ADBE2.0%Jul 23, 202631.3%
15MANHATTAN ASSOCIATES, INC.MANH2.0%Jul 23, 202646.6%
16Veeva Systems Inc.VEEV2.0%Jul 23, 202655.1%
17GARMIN LTDGRMN2.0%Jul 23, 202613.9%
18Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.SSD2.0%Jul 23, 2026−5.4%
19Monster Beverage CorpMNST2.0%Jul 23, 2026−52.4%
20Doximity, Inc.DOCS2.0%Jul 23, 202630.0%
21Moody’s CorporationMCO2.0%Jul 23, 20263.4%
22COPART, INC.CPRT2.0%Jul 23, 202619.3%
23NetApp, Inc.NTAP2.0%Jul 23, 20267.8%
24LAM RESEARCH CORPORATIONLRCX2.0%Jul 23, 2026−10.5%
25NVIDIA CORPNVDA2.0%Jul 23, 20267.1%
26CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INCCORT2.0%Jul 23, 202615.0%
27Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.SFM2.0%Jul 23, 20268.5%
28M-tron Industries, Inc.MPTI2.0%Jul 23, 2026−14.5%
29ULTA BEAUTY, INC.ULTA2.0%Jul 23, 202614.7%
30SHARKNINJA, INC.SN2.0%Jul 23, 202619.6%
31ResMed Inc.RMD2.0%Jul 23, 202621.3%
32ROLLINS INCROL2.0%Jul 23, 2026−9.3%
33Paycom Software, Inc.PAYC2.0%Jul 23, 202672.5%
34IRADIMED CORPORATIONIRMD2.0%Jul 23, 2026−7.9%
35INTUIT INC.INTU2.0%Jul 23, 202622.2%
36DECKERS OUTDOOR CORPDECK2.0%Jul 23, 2026−16.2%
37MORNINGSTAR, INC.MORN2.0%Jul 23, 202626.0%
38LEGACY EDUCATION INC.LGCY2.0%Jul 23, 2026−7.6%
39DELTA AIR LINES, INC.DAL2.0%Jul 23, 2026−3.6%
40W.W. GRAINGER, INC.GWW2.0%Jul 23, 2026−5.7%
41Intuitive Surgical, Inc.ISRG2.0%Jul 23, 202611.8%
42MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS INCMPWR2.0%Jul 23, 2026−12.5%
43Cintas CorporationCTAS2.0%Jul 23, 2026−2.4%
44Grand Canyon Education, Inc.LOPE2.0%Jul 23, 20268.2%
45CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL, INC.CMG2.0%Jul 23, 202621.0%
46FASTENAL COFAST2.0%Jul 23, 20264.7%
47Booking Holdings Inc.BKNG2.0%Jul 23, 202615.6%
48O Reilly Automotive IncORLY2.0%Jul 23, 20261.3%
49GRACO INC.GGG2.0%Jul 23, 20261.6%
50JACK HENRY & ASSOCIATES, INC.JKHY2.0%Jul 23, 202613.9%

Book 1 archive

The original v2 book is closed. Its returned timestamped and recorded are shown below as the methodology-boundary archive.

○ Book 1 archiveClosed at the v2→v3 methodology boundary. The returned constitution and recorded marks are shown below.

The live scoreboard is briefly unavailable — rather than show a number we can’t stand behind, we’re showing none. Please check back shortly.

◇ Hypothetical backtestA reconstruction of how this exact rule would have behaved in the past — not the live record above, and never a promise about the future.

What the rule would have done, 2013–2024

Backtest score records: moat-index@3.0.0.

Read these before the numbers — on this data they are as large as the result:

  • Survivorship bias inflates every line here. The universe is companies still filing with the SEC today; those that went bankrupt or were acquired at a loss simply aren’t in it, so their failures never drag on the rule. This flatters a quality screen the most, and it is not correctable with this data — plausibly worth a few percent a year.
  • One regime, 5 years. 2013–2024 was a historically strong run for equities. 5 annual observations is a small sample; do not read a durable edge into it.
  • Gross of everything. No transaction costs, taxes, slippage, or capacity limits. Annual reconstitution is assumed frictionless.
  • Not a beat-the-market claim. The honest reading is that a broad, equal-weight quality screen roughly kept pace with a fair benchmark at similar risk, and the recent tape has favored the index.
Rule D — annualized+10.7%Rule D returned +10.7% annualized over 5 years in the base case.
Rule D — delisting stress+10.2%Rule D returned +10.2% annualized over 5 years when every unpriced name was treated as a −100% return.
Berkshire (BRK.B)+17.0%Berkshire returned +17.0% annualized over 5 years on the same total-return basis.
S&P 500 (price)+8.3%The S&P 500 price index returned +8.3% annualized over 5 years, excluding dividends.
Years Rule D beat BRK.B2 of 5Across 2013–2024, Rule D beat BRK.B in 2 of 5 annual return years. Its worst year was −23.6% in 2022.
Rule D (paper)Berkshire (BRK.B)S&P 500 (price)
1.0×1.5×2.0×201220132018202120222024Rule DBRK.BS&P

Growth of a hypothetical $1, each line starting together at the first entry. Rule D is the paper portfolio (equal-weight, total return); Berkshire (BRK.B) is on the same total-return basis — the fair bar. The S&P 500 line is the price index (dividends excluded), shown dashed for reference because it understates the market. Gross of all costs and taxes.

20135040%40%26%25%
2018507%7%3%−7%
20215031%31%32%30%
202249−24%−25%3%−20%
20245011%11%24%24%
Cumulative66%63%119%49%

Each return year is the calendar year after the cohort was scored (entry is the first market close on or after Jan 1). Rule D is the equal-weight mean total return of the top 50 by moat composite that year, excluding names with no elapsed/priced return and renormalizing the rest. Rule D (−100% stress) instead counts every unpriced name as a total loss — a deliberately pessimistic delisting bound. BRK.B is on the same total-return basis; S&P (price) excludes dividends and understates the market.

The data’s own caveats, word for word

  • Point-in-time reconstruction: each score uses only SEC filings on file by Dec 31 of the cohort year; restatements filed later are ignored, and filers with December fiscal year-ends are scored off the prior fiscal year (their 10-K arrives the following spring).
  • Survivorship bias: unless delisted companies were ingested explicitly by CIK, the cohort is drawn from companies still filing with the SEC today — names that failed or delisted since are missing, which flatters any forward-looking comparison. Companies whose filings had already gone stale at the cutoff are computed but excluded from the ranking (the stale count). The same caveat extends to returns: a name that stopped trading mid-window reports null with a note, never a guessed return through its delisting. Price histories are keyed by each company's ticker symbol as of today; a symbol that changed hands between issuers during a window can misattribute price history.
  • Scores are business-quality only: no prices feed them, so the price-vs.-estimate comparison and price-dependent verdicts are absent. Forward returns are a separate join of market data made after scoring and never influence any score.
  • Forward returns start strictly after the information cutoff: entry is the first trading close on or after Jan 1 of the year following the cohort year, and each 1y/3y/5y window runs anchor-to-anchor to the first trading close of the corresponding later year. Windows that have not fully elapsed are null — never annualized or extrapolated from a partial period.
  • Return basis honesty: company returns are total returns (split-adjusted closes with dividends reinvested at the ex-date); the S&P 500 benchmark is the ^GSPC price index, which excludes dividends and therefore understates the index by roughly its dividend yield in any comparison. A second benchmark, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), is computed on the SAME total-return basis as the companies — Berkshire pays no dividend, so its dividend-adjusted series equals its price series, and the same code path is used so the comparison is strictly like-for-like. Each record labels its own returnBasis.
  • Educational, not investment advice. Hindsight makes every backtest look wiser than anyone could have been at the time.

Educational only — not investment advice. The Paper Moat Portfolio is a hypothetical demonstration of a published rule, not a fund, a security, or a solicitation. Past performance — live or backtested — does not predict future results. Scores come from primary SEC filings; see the methodology, the full backtest, and the paper-portfolio feed. The Book 1 archive preserves the closed v2 record. See also the disclaimer. We are not affiliated with Warren Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway.