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The Moat Index · Paper portfolio

The Paper Moat Portfolio.

A transparent, rules-only model portfolio: every year we equal-weight the 50 widest economic moats by our Moat Score and hold them until the next reconstitution. The rule is the manager — no name is ever added, dropped, or weighted by hand. We publish the rule up front, date every change, and benchmark it fairly against Berkshire Hathaway.

This is a paper portfolio — a hypothetical, for learning. No money is invested, and nothing here is investment advice, a recommendation, or a prediction. It is not a “beat the market” claim: on a fair, dividend-inclusive benchmark, a broad quality screen like this has roughly kept pace at similar risk. Distinct from Score My Portfolio (your own holdings, in your browser).

● Live recordReal dates, updated nightly, append-only from launch day. This is what the rule has actually done since the fund went live — no retroactive reconstruction.
+11.0%equal-weight, total return · 50/50 priced
+8.7%total return, dividends included — a like-for-like bar

Priced at the close of Oct 16, 2026, updated nightly. Inception Jul 23, 2026. This is a paper portfolio — no money is invested, and there are no costs, taxes, or slippage in these figures.

#CompanyBought
1FORTINET, INC.FTNT2.0%Jul 23, 202611.3%
2Meta Platforms, Inc.META2.0%Jul 23, 202617.3%
3Medpace Holdings, Inc.MEDP2.0%Jul 23, 20262.0%
4IBEX LIMITEDIBEX2.0%Jul 23, 202640.6%
5MICROSOFT CORPORATIONMSFT2.0%Jul 23, 202639.0%
6Alphabet Inc.GOOGL2.0%Jul 23, 20266.1%
7lululemon athletica inc.LULU2.0%Jul 23, 2026−12.3%
8Abercrombie & Fitch Co.ANF2.0%Jul 23, 202666.2%
9IDEXX LABORATORIES INC /DEIDXX2.0%Jul 23, 20264.2%
10Texas Roadhouse, Inc.TXRH2.0%Jul 23, 2026−11.8%
11Federated Hermes, Inc.FHI2.0%Jul 23, 2026−2.2%
12QUALYS, INC.QLYS2.0%Jul 23, 202634.7%
13F5, INC.FFIV2.0%Jul 23, 202612.0%
14ADOBE INC.ADBE2.0%Jul 23, 202615.1%
15MANHATTAN ASSOCIATES, INC.MANH2.0%Jul 23, 202650.3%
16Veeva Systems Inc.VEEV2.0%Jul 23, 202671.5%
17GARMIN LTDGRMN2.0%Jul 23, 202617.5%
18Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.SSD2.0%Jul 23, 2026−6.0%
19Monster Beverage CorpMNST2.0%Jul 23, 2026−51.0%
20Doximity, Inc.DOCS2.0%Jul 23, 202652.9%
21Moody’s CorporationMCO2.0%Jul 23, 20262.4%
22COPART, INC.CPRT2.0%Jul 23, 20263.4%
23NetApp, Inc.NTAP2.0%Jul 23, 202621.5%
24LAM RESEARCH CORPORATIONLRCX2.0%Jul 23, 2026−18.1%
25NVIDIA CORPNVDA2.0%Jul 23, 20262.2%
26CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INCCORT2.0%Jul 23, 202614.7%
27Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.SFM2.0%Jul 23, 2026−10.2%
28M-tron Industries, Inc.MPTI2.0%Jul 23, 2026−22.2%
29ULTA BEAUTY, INC.ULTA2.0%Jul 23, 202623.3%
30SHARKNINJA, INC.SN2.0%Jul 23, 202627.2%
31ResMed Inc.RMD2.0%Jul 23, 202625.5%
32ROLLINS INCROL2.0%Jul 23, 2026−15.0%
33Paycom Software, Inc.PAYC2.0%Jul 23, 202683.7%
34IRADIMED CORPORATIONIRMD2.0%Jul 23, 2026−5.7%
35INTUIT INC.INTU2.0%Jul 23, 202615.9%
36DECKERS OUTDOOR CORPDECK2.0%Jul 23, 2026−14.2%
37MORNINGSTAR, INC.MORN2.0%Jul 23, 202624.5%
38LEGACY EDUCATION INC.LGCY2.0%Jul 23, 2026−12.2%
39DELTA AIR LINES, INC.DAL2.0%Jul 23, 2026−7.0%
40W.W. GRAINGER, INC.GWW2.0%Jul 23, 2026−2.3%
41Intuitive Surgical, Inc.ISRG2.0%Jul 23, 202628.3%
42MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS INCMPWR2.0%Jul 23, 2026−13.1%
43Cintas CorporationCTAS2.0%Jul 23, 20265.3%
44Grand Canyon Education, Inc.LOPE2.0%Jul 23, 202616.8%
45CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL, INC.CMG2.0%Jul 23, 2026−6.1%
46FASTENAL COFAST2.0%Jul 23, 202611.5%
47Booking Holdings Inc.BKNG2.0%Jul 23, 2026−5.3%
48O Reilly Automotive IncORLY2.0%Jul 23, 20264.0%
49GRACO INC.GGG2.0%Jul 23, 20267.3%
50JACK HENRY & ASSOCIATES, INC.JKHY2.0%Jul 23, 20264.4%

Book 1 archive

The original v2 book is closed. Its returned timestamped and recorded are shown below as the methodology-boundary archive.

○ Book 1 archiveClosed at the v2→v3 methodology boundary. The returned constitution and recorded marks are shown below.
−1.1%equal-weight, total return · 50/50 priced
−0.1%total return, dividends included — a like-for-like bar

Priced at the close of Jul 22, 2026, updated nightly. Inception Jul 21, 2026. This is a paper portfolio — no money is invested, and there are no costs, taxes, or slippage in these figures.

#CompanyBought
1FORTINET, INC.FTNT2.0%Jul 21, 2026−1.9%
2Meta Platforms, Inc.META2.0%Jul 21, 2026−2.6%
3ALIGN TECHNOLOGY, INC.ALGN2.0%Jul 21, 2026−2.8%
4IBEX LIMITEDIBEX2.0%Jul 21, 2026−5.3%
5IDEXX LABORATORIES INC /DEIDXX2.0%Jul 21, 2026−1.4%
6lululemon athletica inc.LULU2.0%Jul 21, 2026−2.8%
7ALPHABET INC.GOOGL2.0%Jul 21, 2026−1.5%
8F5, INC.FFIV2.0%Jul 21, 2026−2.0%
9MICROSOFT CORPORATIONMSFT2.0%Jul 21, 2026−1.9%
10Texas Roadhouse, Inc.TXRH2.0%Jul 21, 2026−1.5%
11Moody’s CorporationMCO2.0%Jul 21, 2026−0.2%
12CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL, INC.CMG2.0%Jul 21, 2026−3.4%
13QUALYS, INC.QLYS2.0%Jul 21, 2026−2.5%
14MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC.MKTX2.0%Jul 21, 20260.6%
15Medpace Holdings, Inc.MEDP2.0%Jul 21, 2026−0.7%
16YETI Holdings, Inc.YETI2.0%Jul 21, 20261.6%
17CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INCCORT2.0%Jul 21, 2026−5.0%
18Veeva Systems Inc.VEEV2.0%Jul 21, 2026−2.5%
19Doximity, Inc.DOCS2.0%Jul 21, 2026−2.9%
20ADOBE INC.ADBE2.0%Jul 21, 2026−3.9%
21Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.SSD2.0%Jul 21, 20260.8%
22MANHATTAN ASSOCIATES, INC.MANH2.0%Jul 21, 2026−6.3%
23Mastercard IncMA2.0%Jul 21, 2026−1.2%
24Monster Beverage CorpMNST2.0%Jul 21, 20261.3%
25Grand Canyon Education, Inc.LOPE2.0%Jul 21, 2026−1.2%
26COPART, INC.CPRT2.0%Jul 21, 20260.0%
27M-tron Industries, Inc.MPTI2.0%Jul 21, 20261.2%
28NetApp, Inc.NTAP2.0%Jul 21, 20260.5%
29ULTA BEAUTY, INC.ULTA2.0%Jul 21, 2026−1.2%
30SHARKNINJA, INC.SN2.0%Jul 21, 2026−0.5%
31NVIDIA CORPNVDA2.0%Jul 21, 20262.3%
32Arista Networks, Inc.ANET2.0%Jul 21, 20260.2%
33GRACO INC.GGG2.0%Jul 21, 20261.0%
34LAM RESEARCH CORPORATIONLRCX2.0%Jul 21, 2026−0.8%
35ResMed Inc.RMD2.0%Jul 21, 2026−1.5%
36EXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OF WASHINGTON, INC.EXPD2.0%Jul 21, 2026−0.6%
37KORN FERRYKFY2.0%Jul 21, 20260.1%
38OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC.ODFL2.0%Jul 21, 2026−0.8%
39EXPONENT, INC.EXPO2.0%Jul 21, 20260.1%
40COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS CORPORATIONCTSH2.0%Jul 21, 2026−1.0%
41Abercrombie & Fitch Co.ANF2.0%Jul 21, 20264.3%
42ROLLINS INCROL2.0%Jul 21, 2026−0.9%
43REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.REGN2.0%Jul 21, 2026−3.6%
44INTUIT INC.INTU2.0%Jul 21, 2026−1.9%
45LEGACY EDUCATION INC.LGCY2.0%Jul 21, 2026−1.9%
46O Reilly Automotive IncORLY2.0%Jul 21, 2026−1.6%
47MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS INCMPWR2.0%Jul 21, 20261.1%
48MORNINGSTAR, INC.MORN2.0%Jul 21, 20260.7%
49Intuitive Surgical, Inc.ISRG2.0%Jul 21, 2026−2.7%
50DECKERS OUTDOOR CORPDECK2.0%Jul 21, 2026−0.8%
◇ Hypothetical backtestA reconstruction of how this exact rule would have behaved in the past — not the live record above, and never a promise about the future.

What the rule would have done, 2012–2025

Backtest score records: moat-index@3.0.0.

Read these before the numbers — on this data they are as large as the result:

  • Survivorship bias inflates every line here. The universe is companies still filing with the SEC today; those that went bankrupt or were acquired at a loss simply aren’t in it, so their failures never drag on the rule. This flatters a quality screen the most, and it is not correctable with this data — plausibly worth a few percent a year.
  • One regime, 14 years. 2012–2025 was a historically strong run for equities. 14 annual observations is a small sample; do not read a durable edge into it.
  • Gross of everything. No transaction costs, taxes, slippage, or capacity limits. Annual reconstitution is assumed frictionless.
  • Not a beat-the-market claim. The honest reading is that a broad, equal-weight quality screen roughly kept pace with a fair benchmark at similar risk, and the recent tape has favored the index.
Rule D — annualized+13.3%Rule D returned +13.3% annualized over 14 years in the base case.
Rule D — delisting stress+12.9%Rule D returned +12.9% annualized over 14 years when every unpriced name was treated as a −100% return.
Berkshire (BRK.B)+14.2%Berkshire returned +14.2% annualized over 14 years on the same total-return basis.
S&P 500 (price)+12.8%The S&P 500 price index returned +12.8% annualized over 14 years, excluding dividends.
Years Rule D beat BRK.B7 of 14Across 2012–2025, Rule D beat BRK.B in 7 of 14 annual return years. Its worst year was −23.6% in 2022.
Rule D (paper)Berkshire (BRK.B)S&P 500 (price)
1×2×3×4×5×6×2011201220152018202120242025Rule DBRK.BS&P

Growth of a hypothetical $1, each line starting together at the first entry. Rule D is the paper portfolio (equal-weight, total return); Berkshire (BRK.B) is on the same total-return basis — the fair bar. The S&P 500 line is the price index (dividends excluded), shown dashed for reference because it understates the market. Gross of all costs and taxes.

20125012%12%20%15%
20135040%40%26%25%
20145014%14%27%12%
201550−7%−7%−12%−2%
20165012%12%25%12%
20175031%31%20%19%
2018507%7%3%−7%
20195022%22%13%30%
20205029%29%0%14%
20215031%31%32%30%
202249−24%−25%3%−20%
20234922%20%17%24%
20245011%11%24%24%
2025502%2%10%17%
Cumulative472%449%540%437%

Each return year is the calendar year after the cohort was scored (entry is the first market close on or after Jan 1). Rule D is the equal-weight mean total return of the top 50 by moat composite that year, excluding names with no elapsed/priced return and renormalizing the rest. Rule D (−100% stress) instead counts every unpriced name as a total loss — a deliberately pessimistic delisting bound. BRK.B is on the same total-return basis; S&P (price) excludes dividends and understates the market.

The data’s own caveats, word for word

  • Point-in-time reconstruction: each score uses only SEC filings on file by Dec 31 of the cohort year; restatements filed later are ignored, and filers with December fiscal year-ends are scored off the prior fiscal year (their 10-K arrives the following spring).
  • Survivorship bias: unless delisted companies were ingested explicitly by CIK, the cohort is drawn from companies still filing with the SEC today — names that failed or delisted since are missing, which flatters any forward-looking comparison. Companies whose filings had already gone stale at the cutoff are computed but excluded from the ranking (the stale count). The same caveat extends to returns: a name that stopped trading mid-window reports null with a note, never a guessed return through its delisting. Price histories are keyed by each company's ticker symbol as of today; a symbol that changed hands between issuers during a window can misattribute price history.
  • Scores are business-quality only: no prices feed them, so the price-vs.-estimate comparison and price-dependent verdicts are absent. Forward returns are a separate join of market data made after scoring and never influence any score.
  • Forward returns start strictly after the information cutoff: entry is the first trading close on or after Jan 1 of the year following the cohort year, and each 1y/3y/5y window runs anchor-to-anchor to the first trading close of the corresponding later year. Windows that have not fully elapsed are null — never annualized or extrapolated from a partial period.
  • Return basis honesty: company returns are total returns (split-adjusted closes with dividends reinvested at the ex-date); the S&P 500 benchmark is the ^GSPC price index, which excludes dividends and therefore understates the index by roughly its dividend yield in any comparison. A second benchmark, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), is computed on the SAME total-return basis as the companies — Berkshire pays no dividend, so its dividend-adjusted series equals its price series, and the same code path is used so the comparison is strictly like-for-like. Each record labels its own returnBasis.
  • Educational, not investment advice. Hindsight makes every backtest look wiser than anyone could have been at the time.

Educational only — not investment advice. The Paper Moat Portfolio is a hypothetical demonstration of a published rule, not a fund, a security, or a solicitation. Past performance — live or backtested — does not predict future results. Scores come from primary SEC filings; see the methodology, the full backtest, and the paper-portfolio feed. The Book 1 archive preserves the closed v2 record. See also the disclaimer. We are not affiliated with Warren Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway.