NRG Energy, Inc
NRG · Utilities · $26.8B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · No moat ·
Doesn't clear the bar
The five investor questions
2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $26.8B to $30.3B, increasing; diluted EPS 8.93 to 4.01, decreasing.
Median gross margin 24.1% over 5y, variable.
Median ROIC 12.2%, above the 12% hurdle in 50% of years.
Net debt/EBITDA 3.6x, interest coverage 2x.
Owner earnings changed trend unclear over up to the ten most recent annual observations.
Price vs. value if growth stopped today
A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.
- $1.6B
- $91.86
- $148.82
- $141.03
- 54% above value if growth stopped today
What today’s price assumes: owner earnings growing ~9%/yr over 5 years. The zero-growth estimate assumes owner earnings stay flat (0% growth).
How to read this
We solve for the constant annual change in owner earnings that would make the five-year zero-growth estimate equal today’s price. This keeps the existing model inputs and calculation unchanged; it is an expectations lens, not a forecast.
This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. Flag status unavailable — four adjacent recent FY revenue observations are required.
Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 4% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.
Fundamentals
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Visual explainers
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Moat Score history
Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.
Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars
- Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)tomoat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
- Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0tomoat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
- Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0tomoat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026
Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.
Insider activity
Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”
These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.
The insider-filing service is temporarily unavailable, so no partial or guessed answer is shown for NRG.
Utilities context
#62 of 101 scored Utilities companies, ranked by Moat Score.
Nearest peers by Moat Score
- #60AWK AMERICAN WATER WORKS COMPANY, INC.34.3 out of 100, No moatNo moat
- #61CLNE CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP.34.2 out of 100, No moatNo moat
- #63CTRI Centuri Holdings, Inc.33.8 out of 100, No moatNo moat
- #64RENX RenX Enterprises Corp.33.2 out of 100, No moatNo moat
Compare NRG with its nearest peers →All Utilities companies on the Index →
Common questions about NRG
- Does NRG Energy, Inc have an economic moat?
- Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores NRG Energy, Inc (NRG) 34.0 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 36, pricing power 14, returns on capital 49, balance-sheet safety 7, capital allocation 64.
- Is NRG trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
- The value if growth stopped today — a zero-growth baseline — is $91.86 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate and assumes 0% growth. Versus a recent price of $141.03, that is 54% above value if growth stopped today. The model also publishes a capped-growth comparison, but the zero-growth estimate is the cautious baseline. It assumes trailing owner earnings persist and is unreliable for declining businesses. This is an educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
- How has NRG's Moat Score changed over time?
- The record logs 16 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 34.0 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.