Does Smurfit Westrock plc have an economic moat?

Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) 28.2 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The four filters behind that score (each 0–100): pricing power 29, returns on capital 29, balance-sheet safety 14, capital discipline 40.

Is SW stock trading below its intrinsic value?

Against a deliberately conservative owner-earnings model (9% discount rate, 1% assumed growth, capped at 4%), estimated intrinsic value is $21.53 per share versus a recent price of $44.30 — 106% above value. This is an educational estimate computed from primary SEC filings, not investment advice.

How has SW's Moat Score changed over time?

The record logs 1 reading since Jul 18, 2026; the latest reads 28.2 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

The Moat Index

Smurfit Westrock plc

SW · Materials · $23.1B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · No moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

No moat

The four filters

Pricing power29

Median gross margin 22.0% over 4y, stable.

Returns on capital29

Median ROIC 7.6%, above the 9% hurdle in 50% of years.

Balance-sheet safety14

Net debt/EBITDA 3.0x, interest coverage 2x.

Capital discipline40

Owner earnings +0.7%/yr, share count n/a.

Margin of safety

Above valueOn sale

106% above value

Owner earnings (normalized): $929.5M
Est. intrinsic value / share: $21.53
Recent price: $44.30
Discount to value: 106% above value

Conservative model: 9% discount rate, 1% assumed growth (capped at 4%), maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A).

5 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Smurfit Westrock plc booked $31.2B of revenue in FY2025 in the Materials sector and kept 19.4% of it as gross profit — a moderate-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, 2.2% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.

It earned 4.0% on invested capital in FY2025, with a median of 7.6% across 4 filed years. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 29/100.

The balance sheet carried $13.8B of total debt in FY2025 against $1.1B of owner earnings — roughly 13.0 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 14/100.

Put together: Capital Discipline is the strongest of the four filters (40/100) and Balance-Sheet Safety the weakest (14/100), which is how SW lands at 28/100 — a None moat.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

RevenueSales, as filed$31.2B FY2025

Gross marginRevenue kept after cost of goods19.4% FY2025

Return on invested capitalOperating profit on the capital employed4.0% FY2025

Owner earningsCash an owner could take out$1.1B FY2025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in SW’s filings for that year — the series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Moat Score history

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale28.2 / 100

Score history begins Jul 18, 2026 — the record builds from here and can’t be backfilled.

Tier changesSame-methodology crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

None yet — SW has read No moat for every logged capture since Jul 18, 2026.

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record can’t be backfilled, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Track record

How Smurfit Westrock plc’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.

As-of Moat Score (dot colored by tier)Indexed price (total-return (dividends reinvested))Rated Wide-moat that year

How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored SW on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.

Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The price path is a total-return (dividends reinvested) index built from the same data the forward returns use; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.

What followed, in the years it rated Wide

In the reconstructed history shown, SW did not rate Wide-moat in any year, so there is no wide-moat track record to report. That absence is itself the honest answer — we don’t manufacture a comparison where the rating never earned one.

Materials context

#160 of 231 scored Materials companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

#158HXL HEXCEL CORP /DE/28.8 out of 100, No moatNo moat
#159AVD AMERICAN VANGUARD CORPORATION28.3 out of 100, No moatNo moat
#161NBR NABORS INDUSTRIES LTD28.1 out of 100, No moatNo moat
#162WBI WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC28.1 out of 100, No moatNo moat

Compare SW with its nearest peers →All Materials companies on the Index →

Common questions about SW

Does Smurfit Westrock plc have an economic moat?: Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) 28.2 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The four filters behind that score (each 0–100): pricing power 29, returns on capital 29, balance-sheet safety 14, capital discipline 40.
Is SW stock trading below its intrinsic value?: Against a deliberately conservative owner-earnings model (9% discount rate, 1% assumed growth, capped at 4%), estimated intrinsic value is $21.53 per share versus a recent price of $44.30 — 106% above value. This is an educational estimate computed from primary SEC filings, not investment advice.
How has SW's Moat Score changed over time?: The record logs 1 reading since Jul 18, 2026; the latest reads 28.2 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

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Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell SW. See the disclaimer.