International revenue
U.S.-listed companies earn meaningful revenue abroad, while the denominator is U.S. domestic production. More foreign earnings can make the ratio look richer without the same change in the businesses’ total economic footprint.
The chart of record
The Buffett Indicator
250%
canonical reading · as of 2026-03-31
Higher than 98% of all quarterly readings since 1951.
That is 61% above the exponential long-run trend (1.4 standard deviations above).
Canonical anchor250.0%Q1 2026
Daily lineAccruing0 of 2 required snapshots
Source-event date2026-03-31Q1 2026 quarter end; retrieved 2026-08-02
Daily estimate accruing since 2026-08-02 — appears once 2 snapshots exist. Until then, this page shows only the canonical quarterly public-source series. The ingest keeps distinct scored-universe snapshots append-only and activates the dashed DISPLAY-class line automatically after the minimum is met. There is no synthetic backfill. Daily values will remain excluded from downloads.
1951–present
U.S. public equities as a share of GDP
Recessions are shaded. The centre line is an exponential fit to the full revised history; bands show ±1 and ±2 standard deviations of log residuals.
View the full chart as a data table
| Quarter | Public equity value ($bn) | GDP, revised ($bn) | Indicator, revised | GDP, first reported ($bn) | First-report vintage | Indicator, first reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 79,674 | 31,865.7 | 250.0% | 31,856.3 | 2026-04-30 | 250.1% |
| Q4 2025 | 83,150 | 31,422.5 | 264.6% | 31,490.1 | 2026-02-20 | 264.1% |
| Q3 2025 | 80,885 | 31,098 | 260.1% | 31,095.1 | 2025-12-23 | 260.1% |
| Q2 2025 | 74,733 | 30,485.7 | 245.1% | 30,331.1 | 2025-07-30 | 246.4% |
| Q1 2025 | 67,587 | 30,042.1 | 225.0% | 29,977.6 | 2025-04-30 | 225.5% |
| Q4 2024 | 70,648 | 29,825.2 | 236.9% | 29,700.6 | 2025-01-30 | 237.9% |
| Q3 2024 | 68,755 | 29,511.7 | 233.0% | 29,349.9 | 2024-10-30 | 234.3% |
| Q2 2024 | 64,640 | 29,147 | 221.8% | 28,629.2 | 2024-07-25 | 225.8% |
| Q1 2024 | 62,742 | 28,708.2 | 218.6% | 28,284.5 | 2024-04-25 | 221.8% |
| Q4 2023 | 57,441 | 28,424.7 | 202.1% | 27,938.8 | 2024-01-25 | 205.6% |
| Q3 2023 | 51,662 | 28,074.8 | 184.0% | 27,623.5 | 2023-10-26 | 187.0% |
| Q2 2023 | 53,642 | 27,530.1 | 194.8% | 26,835 | 2023-07-27 | 199.9% |
| Q1 2023 | 49,928 | 27,216.4 | 183.4% | 26,465.9 | 2023-04-27 | 188.6% |
| Q4 2022 | 46,982 | 26,770.5 | 175.5% | 26,132.5 | 2023-01-26 | 179.8% |
| Q3 2022 | 44,410 | 26,336.3 | 168.6% | 25,663.3 | 2022-10-27 | 173.0% |
| Q2 2022 | 46,675 | 25,861.3 | 180.5% | 24,851.8 | 2022-07-28 | 187.8% |
| Q1 2022 | 56,167 | 25,250.3 | 222.4% | 24,382.7 | 2022-04-28 | 230.4% |
| Q4 2021 | 59,448 | 24,813.6 | 239.6% | 23,992.4 | 2022-01-27 | 247.8% |
| Q3 2021 | 54,866 | 23,982.4 | 228.8% | 23,173.5 | 2021-10-28 | 236.8% |
| Q2 2021 | 54,829 | 23,425.9 | 234.1% | 22,722.6 | 2021-07-29 | 241.3% |
| Q1 2021 | 50,311 | 22,680.7 | 221.8% | 22,048.9 | 2021-04-29 | 228.2% |
| Q4 2020 | 47,015 | 22,087.2 | 212.9% | 21,479.5 | 2021-01-28 | 218.9% |
| Q3 2020 | 40,764 | 21,704.4 | 187.8% | 21,157.6 | 2020-10-29 | 192.7% |
| Q2 2020 | 37,269 | 19,958.3 | 186.7% | 19,408.8 | 2020-07-30 | 192.0% |
| Q1 2020 | 30,577 | 21,751.2 | 140.6% | 21,537.9 | 2020-04-29 | 142.0% |
| Q4 2019 | 38,527 | 21,933.2 | 175.7% | 21,734.3 | 2020-01-30 | 177.3% |
| Q3 2019 | 35,765 | 21,717.2 | 164.7% | 21,525.8 | 2019-10-30 | 166.1% |
| Q2 2019 | 35,691 | 21,397.9 | 166.8% | 21,337.9 | 2019-07-26 | 167.3% |
| Q1 2019 | 34,395 | 21,111.6 | 162.9% | 21,062.7 | 2019-04-26 | 163.3% |
| Q4 2018 | 30,542 | 20,917.9 | 146.0% | 20,891.4 | 2019-02-28 | 146.2% |
| Q3 2018 | 35,842 | 20,798.7 | 172.3% | 20,659 | 2018-10-26 | 173.5% |
| Q2 2018 | 33,893 | 20,580.9 | 164.7% | 20,402.5 | 2018-07-27 | 166.1% |
| Q1 2018 | 32,810 | 20,328.6 | 161.4% | 19,965.3 | 2018-04-27 | 164.3% |
| Q4 2017 | 33,170 | 20,037.1 | 165.5% | 19,738.9 | 2018-01-26 | 168.0% |
| Q3 2017 | 31,346 | 19,692.6 | 159.2% | 19,495.5 | 2017-10-27 | 160.8% |
| Q2 2017 | 30,201 | 19,438.6 | 155.4% | 19,226.7 | 2017-07-28 | 157.1% |
| Q1 2017 | 29,404 | 19,280.1 | 152.5% | 19,007.3 | 2017-04-28 | 154.7% |
| Q4 2016 | 27,914 | 19,089.4 | 146.2% | 18,860.8 | 2017-01-27 | 148.0% |
| Q3 2016 | 27,000 | 18,892.6 | 142.9% | 18,651.2 | 2016-10-28 | 144.8% |
| Q2 2016 | 26,074 | 18,711.7 | 139.3% | 18,437.6 | 2016-07-29 | 141.4% |
| Q1 2016 | 25,548 | 18,525.9 | 137.9% | 18,221.1 | 2016-04-28 | 140.2% |
| Q4 2015 | 25,712 | 18,435.1 | 139.5% | 18,128.2 | 2016-01-29 | 141.8% |
| Q3 2015 | 24,557 | 18,401.6 | 133.5% | 18,034.8 | 2015-10-29 | 136.2% |
| Q2 2015 | 26,686 | 18,279.8 | 146.0% | 17,840.5 | 2015-07-30 | 149.6% |
| Q1 2015 | 26,863 | 18,063.5 | 148.7% | 17,710 | 2015-04-29 | 151.7% |
| Q4 2014 | 26,691 | 17,912.1 | 149.0% | 17,710.7 | 2015-01-30 | 150.7% |
| Q3 2014 | 25,558 | 17,804.2 | 143.5% | 17,535.4 | 2014-10-30 | 145.8% |
| Q2 2014 | 25,728 | 17,518.5 | 146.9% | 17,294.7 | 2014-07-30 | 148.8% |
| Q1 2014 | 24,579 | 17,197.7 | 142.9% | 17,149.6 | 2014-04-30 | 143.3% |
| Q4 2013 | 24,145 | 17,192 | 140.4% | 17,102.5 | 2014-01-30 | 141.2% |
| Q3 2013 | 22,163 | 16,953.8 | 130.7% | 16,857.6 | 2013-11-07 | 131.5% |
| Q2 2013 | 21,012 | 16,728.7 | 125.6% | 16,633.4 | 2013-07-31 | 126.3% |
| Q1 2013 | 20,609 | 16,648.2 | 123.8% | 16,010.2 | 2013-04-26 | 128.7% |
| Q4 2012 | 18,658 | 16,420.4 | 113.6% | 15,829 | 2013-01-30 | 117.9% |
| Q3 2012 | 18,722 | 16,319.5 | 114.7% | 15,775.7 | 2012-10-26 | 118.7% |
| Q2 2012 | 17,800 | 16,207.1 | 109.8% | 15,595.9 | 2012-07-27 | 114.1% |
| Q1 2012 | 18,480 | 16,068.8 | 115.0% | 15,461.8 | 2012-04-27 | 119.5% |
| Q4 2011 | 16,509 | 15,842.3 | 104.2% | 15,294.3 | 2012-01-27 | 107.9% |
| Q3 2011 | 14,996 | 15,647.7 | 95.8% | 15,198.6 | 2011-10-27 | 98.7% |
| Q2 2011 | 17,730 | 15,557.5 | 114.0% | 15,003.8 | 2011-07-29 | 118.2% |
| Q1 2011 | 17,848 | 15,351.4 | 116.3% | 15,006.4 | 2011-04-28 | 118.9% |
| Q4 2010 | 16,852 | 15,309.5 | 110.1% | 14,870.4 | 2011-01-28 | 113.3% |
| Q3 2010 | 15,170 | 15,141.6 | 100.2% | 14,730.2 | 2010-10-29 | 103.0% |
| Q2 2010 | 13,718 | 14,980.2 | 91.6% | 14,597.7 | 2010-07-30 | 94.0% |
| Q1 2010 | 15,319 | 14,764.6 | 103.8% | 14,601.4 | 2010-04-30 | 104.9% |
| Q4 2009 | 14,448 | 14,651.2 | 98.6% | 14,463.4 | 2010-01-29 | 99.9% |
| Q3 2009 | 13,766 | 14,448.9 | 95.3% | 14,301.5 | 2009-10-29 | 96.3% |
| Q2 2009 | 11,809 | 14,381.2 | 82.1% | 14,149.8 | 2009-07-31 | 83.5% |
| Q1 2009 | 10,117 | 14,430.9 | 70.1% | 14,075.5 | 2009-04-29 | 71.9% |
| Q4 2008 | 11,424 | 14,608.2 | 78.2% | 14,264.6 | 2009-01-30 | 80.1% |
| Q3 2008 | 14,504 | 14,899 | 97.3% | 14,429.2 | 2008-10-30 | 100.5% |
| Q2 2008 | 15,851 | 14,865.7 | 106.6% | 14,256.5 | 2008-07-31 | 111.2% |
| Q1 2008 | 16,244 | 14,706.5 | 110.5% | 14,185.2 | 2008-04-30 | 114.5% |
| Q4 2007 | 18,022 | 14,715.1 | 122.5% | 14,080.8 | 2008-01-30 | 128.0% |
| Q3 2007 | 18,877 | 14,564.1 | 129.6% | 13,926.7 | 2007-10-31 | 135.5% |
| Q2 2007 | 18,862 | 14,402.1 | 131.0% | 13,755.9 | 2007-07-27 | 137.1% |
| Q1 2007 | 18,031 | 14,215.7 | 126.8% | 13,632.6 | 2007-04-27 | 132.3% |
| Q4 2006 | 17,895 | 14,039.6 | 127.5% | 13,487.2 | 2007-01-31 | 132.7% |
| Q3 2006 | 16,809 | 13,870.2 | 121.2% | 13,308.3 | 2006-10-27 | 126.3% |
| Q2 2006 | 16,253 | 13,753.4 | 118.2% | 13,193.9 | 2006-07-28 | 123.2% |
| Q1 2006 | 16,725 | 13,599.2 | 123.0% | 13,020.9 | 2006-04-28 | 128.4% |
| Q4 2005 | 15,935 | 13,324.2 | 119.6% | 12,735.3 | 2006-01-27 | 125.1% |
| Q3 2005 | 15,693 | 13,142.6 | 119.4% | 12,589.6 | 2005-10-28 | 124.7% |
| Q2 2005 | 15,177 | 12,922.7 | 117.4% | 12,376.2 | 2005-07-29 | 122.6% |
| Q1 2005 | 14,866 | 12,767.3 | 116.4% | 12,182.7 | 2005-04-28 | 122.0% |
| Q4 2004 | 15,264 | 12,527.2 | 121.8% | 11,967 | 2005-01-28 | 127.5% |
| Q3 2004 | 13,893 | 12,305.3 | 112.9% | 11,803.5 | 2004-10-29 | 117.7% |
| Q2 2004 | 14,172 | 12,112.8 | 117.0% | 11,649.3 | 2004-07-30 | 121.7% |
| Q1 2004 | 14,025 | 11,923.4 | 117.6% | 11,447.8 | 2004-04-29 | 122.5% |
| Q4 2003 | 13,617 | 11,772.2 | 115.7% | 11,246.3 | 2004-01-30 | 121.1% |
| Q3 2003 | 12,171 | 11,566.7 | 105.2% | 11,038.4 | 2003-10-30 | 110.3% |
| Q2 2003 | 11,716 | 11,312.8 | 103.6% | 10,777.3 | 2003-07-31 | 108.7% |
| Q1 2003 | 10,096 | 11,174.1 | 90.4% | 10,697.6 | 2003-04-25 | 94.4% |
| Q4 2002 | 10,435 | 11,061.4 | 94.3% | 10,572.3 | 2003-01-30 | 98.7% |
| Q3 2002 | 9,717 | 10,984 | 88.5% | 10,486.1 | 2002-10-31 | 92.7% |
| Q2 2002 | 11,663 | 10,887.5 | 107.1% | 10,369.9 | 2002-07-31 | 112.5% |
| Q1 2002 | 13,309 | 10,783.5 | 123.4% | 10,431.3 | 2002-04-26 | 127.6% |
| Q4 2001 | 13,190 | 10,660.5 | 123.7% | 10,221.6 | 2002-01-30 | 129.0% |
| Q3 2001 | 11,755 | 10,598 | 110.9% | 10,247.7 | 2001-10-31 | 114.7% |
| Q2 2001 | 13,952 | 10,599 | 131.6% | 10,217.6 | 2001-07-27 | 136.6% |
| Q1 2001 | 12,972 | 10,470.2 | 123.9% | 10,243.6 | 2001-04-27 | 126.6% |
| Q4 2000 | 14,815 | 10,435.7 | 142.0% | 10,125 | 2001-01-31 | 146.3% |
| Q3 2000 | 16,613 | 10,318.2 | 161.0% | 10,063.3 | 2000-10-27 | 165.1% |
| Q2 2000 | 16,487 | 10,247.7 | 160.9% | 9,937.3 | 2000-07-28 | 165.9% |
| Q1 2000 | 17,211 | 10,002.2 | 172.1% | 9,697.2 | 2000-04-27 | 177.5% |
| Q4 1999 | 16,212 | 9,900.2 | 163.8% | 9,477.1 | 2000-01-28 | 171.1% |
| Q3 1999 | 13,454 | 9,686.6 | 138.9% | 9,276.3 | 1999-10-28 | 145.0% |
| Q2 1999 | 14,283 | 9,526.2 | 149.9% | 8,893.3 | 1999-07-29 | 160.6% |
| Q1 1999 | 13,226 | 9,411.7 | 140.5% | 8,807.9 | 1999-04-30 | 150.2% |
| Q4 1998 | 12,787 | 9,294 | 137.6% | 8,672.8 | 1999-01-29 | 147.4% |
| Q3 1998 | 10,674 | 9,121.1 | 117.0% | 8,526.5 | 1998-10-30 | 125.2% |
| Q2 1998 | 12,105 | 8,969.7 | 134.9% | 8,431.7 | 1998-07-31 | 143.6% |
| Q1 1998 | 11,823 | 8,866.5 | 133.3% | 8,332.2 | 1998-04-30 | 141.9% |
| Q4 1997 | 10,433 | 8,765.9 | 119.0% | 8,241.5 | 1998-01-30 | 126.6% |
| Q3 1997 | 10,270 | 8,662.8 | 118.5% | 8,131.7 | 1997-10-31 | 126.3% |
| Q2 1997 | 9,363 | 8,518.8 | 109.9% | 8,004.8 | 1997-07-31 | 117.0% |
| Q1 1997 | 8,077 | 8,362.7 | 96.6% | 7,866 | 1997-04-30 | 102.7% |
| Q4 1996 | 8,053 | 8,259.8 | 97.5% | 7,731.7 | 1997-01-31 | 104.2% |
| Q3 1996 | 8,510 | 8,131.4 | 104.7% | 7,616 | 1996-10-30 | 111.7% |
| Q2 1996 | 8,360 | 8,032.8 | 104.1% | 7,538.1 | 1996-08-01 | 110.9% |
| Q1 1996 | 8,031 | 7,868.5 | 102.1% | 7,430.7 | 1996-05-02 | 108.1% |
| Q4 1995 | 7,691 | 7,772.6 | 98.9% | 7,348.1 | 1996-02-23 | 104.7% |
| Q3 1995 | 7,228 | 7,683.1 | 94.1% | 7,113.2 | 1995-10-27 | 101.6% |
| Q2 1995 | 6,678 | 7,581 | 88.1% | 7,011.8 | 1995-07-28 | 95.2% |
| Q1 1995 | 6,156 | 7,522.3 | 81.8% | 6,982.9 | 1995-04-28 | 88.2% |
| Q4 1994 | 5,691 | 7,455.3 | 76.3% | 6,891.1 | 1995-01-27 | 82.6% |
| Q3 1994 | 5,684 | 7,331.1 | 77.5% | 6,775.9 | 1994-10-28 | 83.9% |
| Q2 1994 | 5,434 | 7,246.9 | 75.0% | 6,683.6 | 1994-07-29 | 81.3% |
| Q1 1994 | 5,509 | 7,115.7 | 77.4% | 6,609.4 | 1994-04-28 | 83.4% |
| Q4 1993 | 5,753 | 7,013.7 | 82.0% | 6,510.8 | 1994-01-28 | 88.4% |
| Q3 1993 | 5,533 | 6,882.1 | 80.4% | 6,396.3 | 1993-10-28 | 86.5% |
| Q2 1993 | 5,332 | 6,808.9 | 78.3% | 6,206.9 | 1993-07-29 | 85.9% |
| Q1 1993 | 5,305 | 6,729.5 | 78.8% | 6,158.8 | 1993-04-29 | 86.1% |
| Q4 1992 | 5,108 | 6,680.8 | 76.5% | 6,061.9 | 1993-01-28 | 84.3% |
| Q3 1992 | 4,604 | 6,566.6 | 70.1% | 5,967.1 | 1992-10-27 | 77.2% |
| Q2 1992 | 4,484 | 6,470.8 | 69.3% | 5,893.6 | 1992-07-30 | 76.1% |
| Q1 1992 | 4,501 | 6,363.1 | 70.7% | 5,809.3 | 1992-04-28 | 77.5% |
| Q4 1991 | 4,569 | 6,264.5 | 72.9% | 5,736.6 | 1992-01-29 | 79.6% |
| Q3 1991 | 4,048 | 6,205.9 | 65.2% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1991 | 3,824 | 6,126.9 | 62.4% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1991 | 3,852 | 6,035.2 | 63.8% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1990 | 3,334 | 6,004.7 | 55.5% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1990 | 3,011 | 6,015.1 | 50.1% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1990 | 3,589 | 5,960 | 60.2% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1990 | 3,450 | 5,872.7 | 58.8% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1989 | 3,616 | 5,747.2 | 62.9% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1989 | 3,565 | 5,695.4 | 62.6% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1989 | 3,304 | 5,612.5 | 58.9% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1989 | 3,092 | 5,511.3 | 56.1% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1988 | 2,947 | 5,399.5 | 54.6% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1988 | 2,864 | 5,282.8 | 54.2% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1988 | 2,900 | 5,190 | 55.9% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1988 | 2,772 | 5,073.4 | 54.6% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1987 | 2,616 | 5,008 | 52.2% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1987 | 3,363 | 4,884.6 | 68.9% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1987 | 3,199 | 4,806.2 | 66.6% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1987 | 3,136 | 4,722.2 | 66.4% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1986 | 2,610 | 4,657.6 | 56.0% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1986 | 2,382 | 4,607.7 | 51.7% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1986 | 2,622 | 4,545.3 | 57.7% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1986 | 2,514 | 4,507.9 | 55.8% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1985 | 2,226 | 4,444.1 | 50.1% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1985 | 1,886 | 4,386.8 | 43.0% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1985 | 2,012 | 4,294.9 | 46.9% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1985 | 1,906 | 4,230.2 | 45.1% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1984 | 1,763 | 4,148.6 | 42.5% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1984 | 1,744 | 4,084.3 | 42.7% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1984 | 1,629 | 4,009.6 | 40.6% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1984 | 1,720 | 3,908.1 | 44.0% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1983 | 1,830 | 3,794.7 | 48.2% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1983 | 1,890 | 3,689.2 | 51.2% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1983 | 1,924 | 3,578.8 | 53.8% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1983 | 1,709 | 3,473.4 | 49.2% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1982 | 1,545 | 3,402.6 | 45.4% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1982 | 1,312 | 3,366.3 | 39.0% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1982 | 1,196 | 3,332 | 35.9% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1982 | 1,224 | 3,274.3 | 37.4% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1981 | 1,366 | 3,280.8 | 41.6% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1981 | 1,264 | 3,260.6 | 38.8% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1981 | 1,463 | 3,162.5 | 46.3% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1981 | 1,489 | 3,124.2 | 47.6% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1980 | 1,476 | 2,985.6 | 49.4% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1980 | 1,342 | 2,856.5 | 47.0% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1980 | 1,200 | 2,797.4 | 42.9% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1980 | 1,056 | 2,789.8 | 37.8% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1979 | 1,132 | 2,723.9 | 41.6% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1979 | 1,107 | 2,667.6 | 41.5% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1979 | 1,040 | 2,591.2 | 40.1% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1979 | 1,020 | 2,526.6 | 40.4% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1978 | 958 | 2,476.9 | 38.7% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1978 | 1,005 | 2,395.1 | 42.0% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1978 | 933 | 2,331.6 | 40.0% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1978 | 865 | 2,202.8 | 39.3% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1977 | 912 | 2,164.3 | 42.2% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1977 | 938 | 2,118.5 | 44.3% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1977 | 977 | 2,055.9 | 47.5% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1977 | 948 | 1,988.6 | 47.7% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1976 | 1,025 | 1,934.3 | 53.0% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1976 | 990 | 1,886.6 | 52.5% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1976 | 978 | 1,852.3 | 52.8% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1976 | 959 | 1,820.5 | 52.7% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1975 | 830 | 1,761.8 | 47.1% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1975 | 774 | 1,709.8 | 45.3% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1975 | 882 | 1,651.9 | 53.4% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1975 | 765 | 1,616.1 | 47.3% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1974 | 623 | 1,599.7 | 39.0% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1974 | 602 | 1,560 | 38.6% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1974 | 808 | 1,530.1 | 52.8% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1974 | 901 | 1,491.2 | 60.4% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1973 | 928 | 1,476.3 | 62.9% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1973 | 1,092 | 1,433.8 | 76.2% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1973 | 1,021 | 1,413.9 | 72.2% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1973 | 1,106 | 1,377.5 | 80.3% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1972 | 1,193 | 1,328.9 | 89.8% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1972 | 1,049 | 1,290.6 | 81.3% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1972 | 1,024 | 1,266.4 | 80.9% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1972 | 1,026 | 1,230.6 | 83.4% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1971 | 967 | 1,190.3 | 81.3% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1971 | 904 | 1,177.7 | 76.7% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1971 | 911 | 1,156.3 | 78.8% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1971 | 913 | 1,135.2 | 80.4% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1970 | 825 | 1,088.6 | 75.8% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1970 | 749 | 1,086.1 | 68.9% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1970 | 643 | 1,067.4 | 60.2% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1970 | 808 | 1,051.2 | 76.9% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1969 | 834 | 1,038.1 | 80.3% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1969 | 876 | 1,030 | 85.0% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1969 | 901 | 1,009 | 89.3% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1969 | 940 | 993.3 | 94.6% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1968 | 990 | 968 | 102.2% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1968 | 895 | 950.8 | 94.2% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1968 | 879 | 934.3 | 94.1% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1968 | 771 | 909.4 | 84.8% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1967 | 830 | 881.4 | 94.1% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1967 | 805 | 865.2 | 93.0% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1967 | 755 | 849 | 88.9% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1967 | 742 | 844.2 | 88.0% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1966 | 656 | 833.3 | 78.7% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1966 | 612 | 819.6 | 74.6% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1966 | 681 | 805 | 84.6% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1966 | 710 | 795.7 | 89.2% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1965 | 730 | 771.9 | 94.6% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1965 | 689 | 749.3 | 91.9% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1965 | 633 | 730.2 | 86.7% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1965 | 658 | 717.8 | 91.7% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1964 | 642 | 697.3 | 92.1% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1964 | 628 | 692 | 90.7% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1964 | 607 | 678.7 | 89.4% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1964 | 588 | 669.8 | 87.8% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1963 | 553 | 653.9 | 84.6% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1963 | 577 | 644.4 | 89.6% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1963 | 554 | 629.8 | 88.0% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1963 | 528 | 621.7 | 84.9% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1962 | 499 | 612.3 | 81.5% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1962 | 408 | 609 | 67.1% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1962 | 386 | 600.4 | 64.4% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1962 | 506 | 594 | 85.1% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1961 | 516 | 580.6 | 88.9% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1961 | 480 | 567.7 | 84.5% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1961 | 468 | 555.5 | 84.2% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1961 | 467 | 545 | 85.6% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1960 | 421 | 540.2 | 77.9% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1960 | 377 | 545.6 | 69.0% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1960 | 403 | 541.1 | 74.5% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1960 | 394 | 542.6 | 72.7% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1959 | 417 | 528.6 | 78.9% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1959 | 395 | 525 | 75.2% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1959 | 401 | 522.7 | 76.8% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1959 | 387 | 510.3 | 75.7% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1958 | 379 | 499.6 | 75.9% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1958 | 365 | 485.8 | 75.1% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1958 | 332 | 472 | 70.4% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1958 | 315 | 467.5 | 67.4% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1957 | 299 | 474.9 | 63.0% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1957 | 299 | 479.5 | 62.3% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1957 | 326 | 472 | 69.1% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1957 | 307 | 469.8 | 65.3% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1956 | 321 | 460.5 | 69.7% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1956 | 299 | 451.2 | 66.3% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1956 | 305 | 446 | 68.4% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1956 | 315 | 439.7 | 71.5% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1955 | 296 | 437.1 | 67.8% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1955 | 293 | 430.2 | 68.1% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1955 | 277 | 421.5 | 65.8% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1955 | 254 | 413.1 | 61.4% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1954 | 246 | 399.7 | 61.7% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1954 | 244 | 391 | 62.3% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1954 | 224 | 386.1 | 58.0% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1954 | 207 | 385.3 | 53.8% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1953 | 195 | 386 | 50.5% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1953 | 180 | 391.2 | 46.1% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1953 | 185 | 391.7 | 47.1% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1953 | 194 | 388 | 49.9% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1952 | 197 | 380.8 | 51.8% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q3 1952 | 207 | 367.7 | 56.4% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q2 1952 | 208 | 361 | 57.6% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q1 1952 | 202 | 359.8 | 56.1% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
| Q4 1951 | 198 | 356.2 | 55.5% | Not available in ALFRED | Not available | Not available |
The honesty section
Why this indicator may overstate—or understate—today
A high ratio is a fact about two aggregates. It is not, by itself, a forecast. The denominator and the businesses inside the numerator have changed.
Margin regime
GDP measures output, not corporate earnings. If listed companies retain a larger share of output as profit—or the public market tilts toward high-margin businesses—the same GDP can support a higher equity value. Mean reversion would cut the other way.
Interest rates
Lower discount rates raise the present value of distant cash flows; higher rates reduce it. Buffett’s original discussion made rates one of the two central variables behind long market eras, so comparing ratios across rate regimes needs humility.
Public vs. private markets
The numerator counts public corporate equities, while GDP includes output from public firms, private firms, government, and households. A shift of economic activity between public and private ownership changes the ratio even without a valuation change.
What Buffett actually said
In his 2001 Fortune article, Buffett called market value relative to GNP “probably the best single measure” of where valuations stood. In the same primary source, he did not present it as a mechanical trading rule: he discussed rates and profit margins, warned that extrapolating the late-1990s relationship would be unrealistic, and acknowledged limits in what the ratio can tell an investor. Read the Berkshire-hosted Fortune article (PDF).
Reproducible methodology
Exactly what we calculate
- Numerator: Federal Reserve Z.1 BOGZ1LM883164115Q, All Domestic Sectors; Public Corporate Equities; Liability, Market Value Levels. Quarterly, end of period, millions of dollars.
- Denominator: BEA current-dollar GDP, NIPA Table 1.1.5, distributed as FRED/ALFRED GDP. Quarterly, seasonally adjusted annual rate, billions of dollars.
- Transformation:
(Z.1 ÷ 1,000) ÷ GDP × 100. The quarter-end equity stock is aligned to GDP for the same quarter. - Revision view: revised GDP is the value retrieved 2026-08-02. First-reported GDP uses the first ALFRED release vintage after that quarter; ALFRED’s vintage record begins in 1991, so earlier first-report cells remain explicitly unavailable.
- Trend: ordinary least squares on the natural log of the revised ratio against sequential quarter; bands are one and two population standard deviations of log residuals.
- Recessions: FRED USRECQ; quarterly NBER recession indicator.
- Daily bridge: beginning 2026-08-02, retain each distinct scored-universe market-cap snapshot append-only. After 2 real snapshots exist, scale the sequence to the latest Z.1 anchor and display it as a separate dashed line. Before then, render no estimate. No synthetic backfill is permitted, and this DISPLAY-class layer never enters the public-source export.
Why not the Wilshire proxy?
Buffett described a market-value aggregate, not a price index. The familiar FRED Wilshire 5000 Full Cap Price Index is now discontinued and never was the Z.1 stock used here. Proxy-based public charts are still useful directional checks: Advisor Perspectives/dshort and MarketXLS likewise show an elevated ratio in 2026. They cannot agree with this series to rounding because their numerator, observation date, coverage, and index construction differ. Using the maintained public-corporate-equity level avoids silently splicing or extrapolating a discontinued proxy.
Vintage honesty
GDP changes after the headline
The chart uses revised GDP because it is the best current historical estimate. The open dataset also preserves what GDP was first reported to be, plus the exact ALFRED vintage date, so a reader can reproduce either view without pretending today’s history was known then.
Q1 2026250.0%using GDP revised through 2026-08-02
As first reported250.1%ALFRED vintage 2026-04-30
Use the work
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Open canonical dataset
298 quarterly observations, CC BY 4.0, with source IDs, GDP vintage stamps, recession flags, and SHA-256 checksums. FMP-derived display estimates are excluded.
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FAQ
Questions worth asking
What is the Buffett Indicator?
It is the market value of publicly traded U.S. corporate equities divided by current-dollar U.S. GDP. This page uses Federal Reserve Z.1 series BOGZ1LM883164115Q and BEA/FRED series GDP.
Is the Buffett Indicator a market-timing signal?
No. It describes aggregate valuation relative to domestic output. International revenue, profitability, interest rates, and the split between public and private markets can all change what a given reading means.
Why does this page not use the Wilshire 5000?
The familiar FRED Wilshire 5000 Full Cap Price Index series is discontinued and is a price index rather than the maintained Z.1 market-value stock Buffett's construction calls for. We use the public-equity liability level directly.
What is the daily estimate?
It is a future display-only bridge after the last Z.1 quarter. Real scored-universe snapshots have been accruing since 2026-08-02; the line appears automatically once 2 distinct snapshots exist. There is no synthetic backfill, and daily values remain outside the downloadable public-source dataset.
What does as first reported versus as revised mean?
BEA revises GDP. ALFRED stores historical vintages, so this dataset carries the first available GDP value and its release vintage alongside today's revised value wherever ALFRED coverage permits.
Educational context, not investment advice. A historically high or low aggregate valuation ratio does not identify a market top, bottom, or suitable action for any person.