Buy Like Buffett
Watchlist

AES CORP

AES · Utilities · $10.6B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · No moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

No moat
Share / Embed this score
Embed this score

The five investor questions

60

2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $11.1B to $12.2B, increasing; diluted EPS -0.61 to 1.26, increasing.

31

Median gross margin 23.1% over 10y, stable.

—

Not enough years of ROIC data to score returns on capital.

28

Net debt/EBITDA n/ax, interest coverage 1x.

28

Owner earnings changed trend unclear over up to the ten most recent annual observations.

The returnsOnCapital component abstained: Not enough years of ROIC data to score returns on capital. The other four 20% weights were renormalized over the scored 80%.

Price vs. value if growth stopped today

A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.

Above value if growth stopped todayBelow value if growth stopped today
282% above value if growth stopped today
$249M
$3.88
$6.29
$14.84
282% above value if growth stopped today

What today’s price assumes: owner earnings growing ~31%/yr over 5 years. The zero-growth estimate assumes owner earnings stay flat (0% growth).

How to read this

We solve for the constant annual change in owner earnings that would make the five-year zero-growth estimate equal today’s price. This keeps the existing model inputs and calculation unchanged; it is an expectations lens, not a forecast.

This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. The recent FY revenue series does not trigger the three-consecutive-declines flag.

Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 239% above the zero-growth estimate across 48 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.

Score records captured Jul 26, 2026.

Exactly which 50 companies?

FTNT, META, MEDP, IBEX, MSFT, GOOGL, LULU, ANF, IDXX, TXRH, FHI, QLYS, FFIV, ADBE, LLY, MANH, VEEV, GRMN, SSD, MNST, DOCS, MCO, CPRT, NTAP, LRCX, NVDA, CORT, SFM, MPTI, ULTA, SN, RMD, ROL, PAYC, IRMD, INTU, DECK, MORN, LGCY, DAL, GWW, ISRG, MPWR, CTAS, LOPE, MRK, CMG, FAST, BKNG, ORLY

Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF, BKNG.

Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 4% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.

20 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

AES CORP booked $12.2B of revenue in FY2025 in the Utilities sector and kept 18.1% of it as gross profit — a moderate-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, 7.4% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.

Across the filed record, revenue shrank from $13.1B (FY2009) to $12.2B (FY2025) — about −0.4% a year compounded over 16 years.

AES's latest filed year, FY2025, doesn't disclose total debt in a form the methodology can use, so current leverage is treated as unmeasured — never assumed to be zero.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

FY2006–FY2025 · 20 fiscal years, normalized from AES’s SEC filings

Sales, as filed$12.2B FY2025
$0$10B2006201320202025
Revenue kept after cost of goods18.1% FY2025
0%20%2006201320202025
Standard ROIC or separately labeled Operating ROIC

Not disclosed in AES’s filings for these years — we don’t estimate it.

Cash an owner could take out$910M FY2025
$02006201320202025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in AES’s filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Flagship explainer

How AES CORP makes its money

AES CORP's filing does not supply enough comparable lines for a truthful flow chart — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of revenueSource
$12.2B100%
Cost of revenue$10.0B82%
$2.2B18%
Income before tax$75M1%
Income tax−$181M−1%
$910M7%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What AES CORP owns — and owes

AES CORP's filing tags don't support a full breakdown — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of assetsSource
Total assets$51.8B100%
Cash and equivalents$1.4B3%
Stockholders’ equity$4.1B8%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What drives AES CORP’s return on equity?

One or more filed inputs needed for the five-factor decomposition are unavailable.

DuPont source inputs
InputValueFiscal yearSource
Net income$910MFY2025
Income before tax$75MFY2025
Operating incomeUnavailableFY2025
Revenue$12.2BFY2025
Ending assets$51.8BFY2025
Beginning assets$47.4BFY2024
Ending equity$4.1BFY2025
Beginning equity$3.6BFY2024
Source:
  • SEC filingFiling detailsAccession 0000874761-26-000063
· event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

Where AES CORP's cash went

AES CORP’s filing does not supply enough provenance-matched cash-flow lines for a truthful flow chart — here’s what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of cash from operationsSource
Cash from operations$4.3B100%
Depreciation and amortization−$1.5B−34%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Curated 19-manager tier

Who reported holding AES CORP

Delayed public 13F reports for 2026-Q2—not live positions, trades, or recommendations.

0 holding0 exited0 not holding0/19 resolved19 unavailable

Named manager positions and quarter-over-quarter changes
ManagerReported positionQuarter-over-quarterFiling accession
Abrams CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Akre CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Baupost GroupUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Berkshire HathawayUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Brave Warrior AdvisorsUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Dodge & CoxUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
First EagleUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
FundsmithUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Gardner Russo & QuinnUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Gates Foundation TrustUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Mairs & PowerUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Markel / Markel-GaynerUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Oakmark / Harris AssociatesUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Pershing SquareUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Polen CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Sequoia / Ruane CunniffUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Southeastern Asset ManagementUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Tweedy, BrowneUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Yacktman Asset ManagementUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable

Position size uses shares and filed value from each manager’s 13F. Portfolio weight uses the eligible long-share filing denominator. Changes compare only with the immediately preceding calendar quarter.

Source: Filing source unavailable · event Jun 30, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026

Flagship explainer

What AES CORP insiders reported

Records still being gathered — partial as of retrieval Aug 19, 2026.

Partial coverage: the incomplete Form 4 walk cannot establish no activity, an activity date, or zero counts.

Moat Score history

16 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale36.5 / 100
0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatJul 26, 2026

Score history begins Jul 26, 2026 — the record builds forward from here.

Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

  1. Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)moat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
  2. Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0moat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
  3. Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0moat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Insider activity

Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”

These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.

This machine-readable surface covers SEC ownership filings from 2003; it does not represent earlier paper-era records.

Records still being gathered — partial as of retrieval Aug 19, 2026.

107 filings were skipped because the SEC primary document returned 404; the omission is disclosed and aggregates are withheld.

Trailing-12-month totals and the 90-day cluster result are withheld because this issuer walk is incomplete.

No reported Form 4 rows were captured for AES; the incomplete walk cannot establish zero activity, zero counts, or a negative cluster result.

A filing source-event date will appear when a Form 4 row is captured.

Retrieved .

Track record

How AES CORP’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.

Point-in-time scores 2011–2025, one methodology version · reconstructed from filings on file each Dec 31 — never with hindsight

Point-in-time Moat Score (dot colored by tier)Indexed price (total-return (dividends reinvested))Rated Wide-moat that year

How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored AES on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.

0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatPoint-in-time Moat Score100Indexed price · log scale 201120142017202020232025

Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The indexed price path isn't available for this company yet; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.

What followed, in the years it rated Wide

In the reconstructed history shown, AES did not rate Wide-moat in any year, so there is no wide-moat track record to report. That absence is itself the honest answer — we don’t manufacture a comparison where the rating never earned one.

Utilities context

#49 of 101 scored Utilities companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

  1. #47SENR Strategic Environmental & Energy Resources, Inc.37.0No moat
  2. #48KNTK KINETIK HOLDINGS INC.36.6No moat
  3. #50XEL XCEL ENERGY INC36.1No moat
  4. #51HTO H2O AMERICA36.0No moat

Compare AES with its nearest peers →All Utilities companies on the Index →

Common questions about AES

Does AES CORP have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores AES CORP (AES) 36.5 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 60, pricing power 31, returns on capital not measurable from the filings, balance-sheet safety 28, capital allocation 28.
Is AES trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
The value if growth stopped today — a zero-growth baseline — is $3.88 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate and assumes 0% growth. Versus a recent price of $14.84, that is 282% above value if growth stopped today. The model also publishes a capped-growth comparison, but the zero-growth estimate is the cautious baseline. It assumes trailing owner earnings persist and is unreliable for declining businesses. This is an educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
How has AES's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 16 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 36.5 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell AES. See the disclaimer.