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The Moat Index

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.

AESI · Materials · $1.7B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · No moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

34/ 100
No moat

The four filters

Pricing power34

Median gross margin 37.2% over 5y, variable.

Returns on capital50

Median ROIC 11.6%, above the 9% hurdle in 60% of years.

Balance-sheet safety2

Net debt/EBITDA 3.9x, interest coverage 0x.

Capital discipline44

Owner earnings trend unclear, share count n/a.

Margin of safety

Above valueOn sale
162% above value
Owner earnings (normalized)
$59.9M
Est. intrinsic value / share
$5.37
Recent price
$14.07
Discount to value
162% above value

Conservative model: 9% discount rate, 0% assumed growth (capped at 4%), maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A).

6 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. booked $1.1B of revenue in FY2025 in the Materials sector and kept 13.8% of it as gross profit — a thin-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, −4.6% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.

It earned −0.5% on invested capital in FY2025, with a median of 11.6% across 5 filed years. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 50/100.

The balance sheet carried $578.9M of total debt in FY2025. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 2/100.

Put together: Returns on Capital is the strongest of the four filters (50/100) and Balance-Sheet Safety the weakest (2/100), which is how AESI lands at 34/100 — a None moat.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

FY2020–FY2025 · 6 fiscal years, normalized from AESI’s SEC filings

RevenueSales, as filed$1.1B FY2025
$0$500M$1B2020202220242025
Gross marginRevenue kept after cost of goods13.8% FY2025
0%20%40%2020202220242025
Return on invested capitalOperating profit on the capital employed−0.5% FY2025
0%20%2020202220242025
Owner earningsCash an owner could take out−$38.4M FY2025
$0$100M$200M2020202220242025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in AESI’s filings for that year — the series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Moat Score history

1 logged reading since Jul 18, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale34.4 / 100
0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatJul 18, 2026

Score history begins Jul 18, 2026 — the record builds from here and can’t be backfilled.

Tier changesSame-methodology crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

None yet — AESI has read No moat for every logged capture since Jul 18, 2026.

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record can’t be backfilled, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Track record

How Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.

As-of scores 2023–2025, one methodology version · reconstructed from filings on file each Dec 31 — never with hindsight

As-of Moat Score (dot colored by tier)Indexed price (total-return (dividends reinvested))Rated Wide-moat that year

How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored AESI on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.

0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatAs-of Moat Score61152Indexed price · log scale (2024 = 100)2023202420252026

Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The price path is a total-return (dividends reinvested) index built from the same data the forward returns use; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.

What followed, in the years it rated Wide

In the 1 year AESI rated Wide-moat (2024), the median forward total return that followed — measured only after each year’s filings were public — was:

  • 1 year −55% vs the S&P 500’s 17% (price basis) · median over 1 year
  • 3 years None of the 1 year it rated Wide has a fully elapsed 3-year window with a benchmark to compare against yet.
  • 5 years None of the 1 year it rated Wide has a fully elapsed 5-year window with a benchmark to compare against yet.

These are medians computed from the data, not a claim about any one year. The company figures are total returns (dividends reinvested); the S&P 500 is the price-only ^GSPC index, which excludes dividends and so understates the index — the gap flatters the company. A quality rating is not a return forecast, and past returns don’t predict future ones. Educational only, not investment advice.

Materials context

#135 of 231 scored Materials companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

  1. #133COTY COTY INC.34.5No moat
  2. #134RITE MINERALRITE CORPORATION34.4No moat
  3. #136GPK Graphic Packaging Holding Co34.1No moat
  4. #137VAL Valaris Limited34.0No moat

Compare AESI with its nearest peers →All Materials companies on the Index →

Common questions about AESI

Does Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) 34.4 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The four filters behind that score (each 0–100): pricing power 34, returns on capital 50, balance-sheet safety 2, capital discipline 44.
Is AESI stock trading below its intrinsic value?
Against a deliberately conservative owner-earnings model (9% discount rate, 0% assumed growth, capped at 4%), estimated intrinsic value is $5.37 per share versus a recent price of $14.07 — 162% above value. This is an educational estimate computed from primary SEC filings, not investment advice.
How has AESI's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 1 reading since Jul 18, 2026; the latest reads 34.4 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.
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Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell AESI. See the disclaimer.