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ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC.

ALK · Industrials · $5.3B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · No moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

No moat
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The five investor questions

60

2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $6.2B to $14.2B, increasing; diluted EPS 3.77 to 0.83, decreasing.

—

Not enough years of gross-margin data to score pricing power.

18

Median ROIC 6.7%, above the 12% hurdle in 30% of years.

0

Net debt/EBITDA 4.3x, interest coverage 1x.

33

Owner earnings changed -20.6%/yr over up to the ten most recent annual observations.

The pricingPower component abstained: Not enough years of gross-margin data to score pricing power. The other four 20% weights were renormalized over the scored 80%.

Price vs. value if growth stopped today

A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.

Above value if growth stopped todayBelow value if growth stopped today
104% above value if growth stopped today
$235M
$22.60
$22.60
$46.13
104% above value if growth stopped today

What today’s price assumes: owner earnings growing ~15%/yr over 5 years. The zero-growth estimate assumes owner earnings stay flat (0% growth).

How to read this

We solve for the constant annual change in owner earnings that would make the five-year zero-growth estimate equal today’s price. This keeps the existing model inputs and calculation unchanged; it is an expectations lens, not a forecast.

This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. The recent FY revenue series does not trigger the three-consecutive-declines flag.

Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 239% above the zero-growth estimate across 48 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.

Score records captured Jul 26, 2026.

Exactly which 50 companies?

FTNT, META, MEDP, IBEX, MSFT, GOOGL, LULU, ANF, IDXX, TXRH, FHI, QLYS, FFIV, ADBE, LLY, MANH, VEEV, GRMN, SSD, MNST, DOCS, MCO, CPRT, NTAP, LRCX, NVDA, CORT, SFM, MPTI, ULTA, SN, RMD, ROL, PAYC, IRMD, INTU, DECK, MORN, LGCY, DAL, GWW, ISRG, MPWR, CTAS, LOPE, MRK, CMG, FAST, BKNG, ORLY

Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF, BKNG.

Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 0% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.

19 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Across the filed record, revenue grew from $3.7B (FY2008) to $14.2B (FY2025) — about 8.3% a year compounded over 17 years.

It earned 2.4% on invested capital in the latest filed year, FY2025. Across the full 18-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was 10.4%. Over the v3 recent window (10 measurable filed years), median ROIC was 6.7%. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 18/100.

The balance sheet carried $5.3B of total debt in FY2025 against $100M of owner earnings — roughly 53.1 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 0/100.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

FY2007–FY2025 · 19 fiscal years, normalized from ALK’s SEC filings

Sales, as filed$14.2B FY2025
$0$10B2007201320192025
Revenue kept after cost of goods

Not disclosed in ALK’s filings for these years — we don’t estimate it.

Standard ROIC or separately labeled Operating ROICROIC 2.4% FY2025
−25%0%25%2007201320192025
Cash an owner could take out$100M FY2025
−$1B$0$1B2007201320192025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in ALK’s filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Flagship explainer

How ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. makes its money

ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC.'s filing does not supply enough comparable lines for a truthful flow chart — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of revenueSource
$14.2B100%
$303M2%
Income before tax$146M1%
Income tax$46M0%
$100M1%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. owns — and owes

ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC.'s filing tags don't support a full breakdown — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of assetsSource
Total assets$20.4B100%
Cash and equivalents$627M3%
$5.3B26%
Stockholders’ equity$4.1B20%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What drives ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC.’s return on equity?

ROE is five filed business factors multiplied together.

DuPont return on equity factor treeReturn on equity branches into tax burden, interest burden, operating margin, asset turnover, and the equity multiplier.Return on equity2%Tax burden68%net income ÷ pretax incomeInterest burden48%pretax ÷ operating incomeOperating margin2%operating income ÷ revenueAsset turnover0.71×revenue ÷ average assetsEquity multiplier4.73×average assets ÷ average equityAs of 2025-12-31 · 1 SEC filing sourceBuy Like Buffett · buylikebuffett.com
DuPont source inputs
InputValueFiscal yearSource
$100MFY2025
Income before tax$146MFY2025
Operating income$303MFY2025
$14.2BFY2025
Ending assets$20.4BFY2025
Beginning assets$19.8BFY2024
$4.1BFY2025
$4.4BFY2024
Source:
  • SEC filingFiling detailsAccession 0000766421-26-000010
· event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set
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Flagship explainer

Where ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC.'s cash went

ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC.’s filing does not supply enough provenance-matched cash-flow lines for a truthful flow chart — here’s what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of cash from operationsSource
Cash from operations$1.2B100%
Depreciation and amortization$795M64%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Curated 19-manager tier

Who reported holding ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC.

Delayed public 13F reports for 2026-Q1—not live positions, trades, or recommendations.

0 holding0 exited19 not holding19/19 resolved

Named manager positions and quarter-over-quarter changes
ManagerReported positionQuarter-over-quarterFiling accession
Abrams CapitalNo position reportedNo position reported
Akre CapitalNo position reportedNo position reported
Baupost GroupNo position reportedNo position reported
Berkshire HathawayNo position reportedNo position reported
Brave Warrior AdvisorsNo position reportedNo position reported
Dodge & CoxNo position reportedNo position reported
First EagleNo position reportedNo position reported
FundsmithNo position reportedNo position reported
Gardner Russo & QuinnNo position reportedNo position reported
Gates Foundation TrustNo position reportedNo position reported
Mairs & PowerNo position reportedNo position reported
Markel / Markel-GaynerNo position reportedNo position reported
Oakmark / Harris AssociatesNo position reportedNo position reported
Pershing SquareNo position reportedNo position reported
Polen CapitalNo position reportedNo position reported
Sequoia / Ruane CunniffNo position reportedNo position reported
Southeastern Asset ManagementNo position reportedNo position reported
Tweedy, BrowneNo position reportedNo position reported
Yacktman Asset ManagementNo position reportedNo position reported

Position size uses shares and filed value from each manager’s 13F. Portfolio weight uses the eligible long-share filing denominator. Changes compare only with the immediately preceding calendar quarter.

Source:
38 SEC filings
  1. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000813917-26-000022 · filed Feb 17, 2026
  2. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0000813917-26-000038 · filed May 15, 2026
  3. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000860643-26-000001 · filed Feb 12, 2026
  4. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0000860643-26-000003 · filed May 13, 2026
  5. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000905567-26-000001 · filed Feb 3, 2026
  6. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0000905567-26-000002 · filed May 1, 2026
  7. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000919574-26-000775 · filed Feb 13, 2026
  8. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0000919574-26-003132 · filed May 15, 2026
  9. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001061768-26-000005 · filed Feb 13, 2026
  10. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001061768-26-000007 · filed May 14, 2026
  11. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001096343-26-000011 · filed Feb 6, 2026
  12. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001096343-26-000044 · filed May 1, 2026
  13. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001104659-26-016458 · filed Feb 17, 2026
  14. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001104659-26-062592 · filed May 15, 2026
  15. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001112520-26-000008 · filed Feb 13, 2026
  16. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001112520-26-000009 · filed May 14, 2026
  17. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-000654 · filed Feb 12, 2026
  18. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-000791 · filed Feb 13, 2026
  19. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-001057 · filed Feb 17, 2026
  20. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-001068 · filed Feb 17, 2026
  21. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-001091 · filed Feb 17, 2026
  22. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-001819 · filed May 14, 2026
  23. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-001911 · filed May 14, 2026
  24. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-001966 · filed May 14, 2026
  25. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-002294 · filed May 15, 2026
  26. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-002336 · filed May 15, 2026
  27. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-033986 · filed Feb 3, 2026
  28. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-050636 · filed Feb 13, 2026
  29. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-054580 · filed Feb 17, 2026
  30. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-208439 · filed May 6, 2026
  31. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-223352 · filed May 14, 2026
  32. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-226661 · filed May 15, 2026
  33. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001325447-26-000004 · filed Feb 4, 2026
  34. 13F-HR/A · Q1 2026 · Amendment RESTATEMENTFiling detailsAccession 0001325447-26-000018 · filed May 14, 2026
  35. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001398344-26-003084 · filed Feb 13, 2026
  36. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001398344-26-009296 · filed May 15, 2026
  37. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001569205-26-000002 · filed Feb 17, 2026
  38. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001569205-26-000005 · filed May 15, 2026
· event Mar 31, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026

Flagship explainer

What ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. insiders reported

Insider activity is unavailable from the source; no zero-activity claim is shown.

Unavailable: Form 4 activity could not be retrieved for this rendering.

Moat Score history

16 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale27.7 / 100
0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatJul 20, 2026Jul 26, 2026

Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.

Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

  1. Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)moat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
  2. Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0moat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
  3. Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0moat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Insider activity

Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”

These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.

The insider-filing service is temporarily unavailable, so no partial or guessed answer is shown for ALK.

Industrials context

#352 of 428 scored Industrials companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

  1. #350ARTW ARTS WAY MANUFACTURING CO INC28.2No moat
  2. #351GFF GRIFFON CORPORATION27.7No moat
  3. #353ULH UNIVERSAL LOGISTICS HOLDINGS, INC.27.5No moat
  4. #354WKC WORLD KINECT CORPORATION27.4No moat

Compare ALK with its nearest peers →All Industrials companies on the Index →

Common questions about ALK

Does ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK) 27.7 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 60, pricing power not measurable from the filings, returns on capital 18, balance-sheet safety 0, capital allocation 33.
Is ALK trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
The value if growth stopped today — a zero-growth baseline — is $22.60 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate and assumes 0% growth. Versus a recent price of $46.13, that is 104% above value if growth stopped today. The model also publishes a capped-growth comparison, but the zero-growth estimate is the cautious baseline. It assumes trailing owner earnings persist and is unreliable for declining businesses. This is an educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
How has ALK's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 16 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 27.7 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell ALK. See the disclaimer.