ALPHA METALLURGICAL RESOURCES, INC.

AMR · Materials · $1.8B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · Shallow moat ·

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Shallow moat
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The five investor questions

Revenue & EPS trend34

2017–2025: revenue 1639883000.00 to 2122605000.00, increasing; diluted EPS 14.35 to -4.75, decreasing. Latest-filed diluted EPS remains usable for Business Trend, but an integer share-count change lacks enough evidence to confirm a comparable EPS basis; valuation growth therefore stays at 0%.

Pricing power

Not enough years of gross-margin data to score pricing power.

Returns on capital77

Median ROIC 17.3%, above the 12% hurdle in 67% of years.

Balance-sheet safety55

Net cash position — no leverage risk.

Capital discipline44

Owner earnings trend unclear, share count n/a.

The pricingPower component abstained: Not enough years of gross-margin data to score pricing power. The other four 20% weights were renormalized over the scored 80%.

Price vs. owner-earnings value range

Above estimateBelow estimate
47% below high estimate
Owner earnings (normalized)
$315.5M
Value range / share
$273.78–$273.78
Conservative high estimate / share
$273.78
Recent price
$143.76
Price vs. high estimate
47% below high estimate

Conservative range under moat-index@2.0.0: low end 11.1×, high end capped at 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 0% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.

10 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Across the filed record, revenue grew from $1.6B (FY2017) to $2.1B (FY2025) — about 3.3% a year compounded over 8 years.

It earned −4.1% on invested capital in FY2025, with a median of 17.3% across 9 filed years. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 77/100.

The balance sheet carried $13.4M of total debt in FY2025. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 55/100.

The share count rose 29.4% between FY2017 and FY2025 — existing owners have been diluted over the record. Capital Discipline scores it 44/100.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

FY2016–FY2025 · 10 fiscal years, normalized from AMR’s SEC filings

RevenueSales, as filed$2.1B FY2025
$0$2B$4B2016201920222025
Gross marginRevenue kept after cost of goods

Not disclosed in AMR’s filings for these years — we don’t estimate it.

Return on invested capitalOperating profit on the capital employed−4.1% FY2025
0%100%2016201920222025
Owner earningsCash an owner could take out−$14.3M FY2025
$0$1B2016201920222025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in AMR’s filings for that year — the series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Moat Score history

9 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale52.4 / 100
0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatJul 20, 2026Jul 21, 2026

Tier changesSame-methodology crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

  1. Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0tomoat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record can’t be backfilled, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Track record

How ALPHA METALLURGICAL RESOURCES, INC.’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.

As-of scores 20182025, one methodology version · reconstructed from filings on file each Dec 31 — never with hindsight

As-of Moat Score (dot colored by tier)Indexed price (total-return (dividends reinvested))Rated Wide-moat that year

How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored AMR on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.

0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatAs-of Moat Score2050100200500Indexed price · log scale (2017 = 100)20182020202220242026

Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The price path is a total-return (dividends reinvested) index built from the same data the forward returns use; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.

What followed, in the years it rated Wide

In the 1 year AMR rated Wide-moat (2023), the median forward total return that followed — measured only after each year’s filings were public — was:

  • 1 year −41% vs the S&P 500’s 24% (price basis) · median over 1 year
  • 3 years None of the 1 year it rated Wide has a fully elapsed 3-year window with a benchmark to compare against yet.
  • 5 years None of the 1 year it rated Wide has a fully elapsed 5-year window with a benchmark to compare against yet.

These are medians computed from the data, not a claim about any one year. The company figures are total returns (dividends reinvested); the S&P 500 is the price-only ^GSPC index, which excludes dividends and so understates the index — the gap flatters the company. A quality rating is not a return forecast, and past returns don’t predict future ones. Educational only, not investment advice.

Materials context

#86 of 304 scored Materials companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

  1. #84XAGE LONGEVITY HEALTH HOLDINGS, INC.53.0 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
  2. #85CHRD Chord Energy Corp52.7 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
  3. #87ANNA AleAnna, Inc.52.2 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
  4. #88AVNT AVIENT CORPORATION52.1 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat

Compare AMR with its nearest peersAll Materials companies on the Index →

Common questions about AMR

Does ALPHA METALLURGICAL RESOURCES, INC. have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores ALPHA METALLURGICAL RESOURCES, INC. (AMR) 52.4 out of 100 — a Shallow moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 34, pricing power not measurable from the filings, returns on capital 77, balance-sheet safety 55, capital discipline 44.
Is AMR trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
The owner-earnings value range is $273.78–$273.78 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate; the low end assumes 0% growth and the high end uses 0% growth, capped at 4% and 18×. Versus a recent price of $143.76, that is 47% below high estimate relative to the high estimate. This is a conservative educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
How has AMR's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 9 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 52.4 out of 100 (shallow moat). No tier changes on record yet. (A methodology upgrade on Jul 20, 2026 re-based the score; readings across engine versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.