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CAREDX, INC.

CDNA · Healthcare · $1.9B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · Shallow moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

Shallow moat
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The five investor questions

43

2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $296M to $380M, increasing; diluted EPS -0.59 to -0.40, increasing. Latest-filed diluted EPS remains usable for Business Trend, but an integer share-count change lacks enough evidence to confirm a comparable EPS basis; valuation growth therefore stays at 0%.

88

Median gross margin 60.6% over 4y, stable.

4

Median ROIC -25.9%, above the 12% hurdle in 10% of years.

55

Net cash position — no leverage risk.

24

Owner earnings changed trend unclear over up to the ten most recent annual observations.

Price vs. value if growth stopped today

A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.

Above value if growth stopped todayBelow value if growth stopped today
No price data
Not reported
Unavailable — insufficient owner-earnings data
Unavailable — insufficient growth-model data
$37.14
No price data

This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. The recent FY revenue series does not trigger the three-consecutive-declines flag.

Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 239% above the zero-growth estimate across 48 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.

Score records captured Jul 26, 2026.

Exactly which 50 companies?

FTNT, META, MEDP, IBEX, MSFT, GOOGL, LULU, ANF, IDXX, TXRH, FHI, QLYS, FFIV, ADBE, LLY, MANH, VEEV, GRMN, SSD, MNST, DOCS, MCO, CPRT, NTAP, LRCX, NVDA, CORT, SFM, MPTI, ULTA, SN, RMD, ROL, PAYC, IRMD, INTU, DECK, MORN, LGCY, DAL, GWW, ISRG, MPWR, CTAS, LOPE, MRK, CMG, FAST, BKNG, ORLY

Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF, BKNG.

Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 0% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.

15 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Across the filed record, revenue grew from $20.5M (FY2012) to $380M (FY2025) — about 25.2% a year compounded over 13 years.

It earned −10.2% on invested capital in the latest filed year, FY2025. Across the full 12-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was −25.9%. Over the v3 recent window (10 measurable filed years), median ROIC was −25.9%. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 4/100.

CDNA's latest filed year, FY2025, doesn't disclose total debt in a form the methodology can use, so current leverage is treated as unmeasured — never assumed to be zero.

Put together: Pricing Power is the strongest of the five filters (88/100) and Returns on Capital the weakest (4/100), which is how CDNA lands at 43/100 — a Shallow moat.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

FY2011–FY2025 · 15 fiscal years, normalized from CDNA’s SEC filings

Sales, as filed$380M FY2025
$0$200M$400M2011201620212025
Revenue kept after cost of goods64.2% FY2019
0%50%100%2011201620212025
Standard ROIC or separately labeled Operating ROICROIC −10.2% FY2025

Not meaningful FY2013: invested capital is negative (cash exceeds debt + equity)

−100%0%2011201620212025
Cash an owner could take out−$21.4M FY2025
−$200M−$100M$02011201620212025

The explained ROIC gaps have filed inputs but no meaningful positive invested-capital denominator. Other gaps mean the item is not in the filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Flagship explainer

How CAREDX, INC. makes its money

CAREDX, INC.'s filing does not supply enough comparable lines for a truthful flow chart — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of revenueSource
$380M100%
−$30.8M−8%
Income before tax−$21.1M−6%
Income tax$2710000%
−$21.4M−6%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What CAREDX, INC. owns — and owes

CAREDX, INC.'s filing tags don't support a full breakdown — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of assetsSource
Total assets$413M100%
Cash and equivalents$65.4M16%
Stockholders’ equity$303M73%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What drives CAREDX, INC.’s return on equity?

ROE is five filed business factors multiplied together.

DuPont return on equity factor treeReturn on equity branches into tax burden, interest burden, operating margin, asset turnover, and the equity multiplier.Return on equity−6%Tax burden101%net income ÷ pretax incomeInterest burden68%pretax ÷ operating incomeOperating margin−8%operating income ÷ revenueAsset turnover0.84×revenue ÷ average assetsEquity multiplier1.33×average assets ÷ average equityAs of 2025-12-31 · 1 SEC filing sourceBuy Like Buffett · buylikebuffett.com
DuPont source inputs
InputValueFiscal yearSource
−$21.4MFY2025
Income before tax−$21.1MFY2025
Operating income−$30.8MFY2025
$380MFY2025
Ending assets$413MFY2025
Beginning assets$491MFY2024
$303MFY2025
$378MFY2024
Source:
  • SEC filingFiling detailsAccession 0001217234-26-000018
· event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set
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Flagship explainer

Where CAREDX, INC.'s cash went

CAREDX, INC.’s filing does not supply enough provenance-matched cash-flow lines for a truthful flow chart — here’s what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of cash from operationsSource
Cash from operations$42M100%
Depreciation and amortization$15M36%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Curated 19-manager tier

Who reported holding CAREDX, INC.

Delayed public 13F reports for 2026-Q2—not live positions, trades, or recommendations.

0 holding0 exited1 not holding1/19 resolved18 unavailable

Named manager positions and quarter-over-quarter changes
ManagerReported positionQuarter-over-quarterFiling accession
Markel / Markel-GaynerNo position reportedNo position reported
Abrams CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Akre CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Baupost GroupUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Berkshire HathawayUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Brave Warrior AdvisorsUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Dodge & CoxUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
First EagleUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
FundsmithUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Gardner Russo & QuinnUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Gates Foundation TrustUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Mairs & PowerUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Oakmark / Harris AssociatesUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Pershing SquareUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Polen CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Sequoia / Ruane CunniffUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Southeastern Asset ManagementUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Tweedy, BrowneUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Yacktman Asset ManagementUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable

Position size uses shares and filed value from each manager’s 13F. Portfolio weight uses the eligible long-share filing denominator. Changes compare only with the immediately preceding calendar quarter.

Source: · event Jun 30, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026

Flagship explainer

What CAREDX, INC. insiders reported

Insider activity is unavailable from the source; no zero-activity claim is shown.

Unavailable: Form 4 activity could not be retrieved for this rendering.

Moat Score history

16 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale42.6 / 100
0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatJul 17, 2026Jul 26, 2026

Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.

Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

  1. Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)moat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
  2. Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0moat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
  3. Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0moat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Insider activity

Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”

These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.

The insider-filing service is temporarily unavailable, so no partial or guessed answer is shown for CDNA.

Track record

How CAREDX, INC.’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.

Point-in-time scores 2014–2025, one methodology version · reconstructed from filings on file each Dec 31 — never with hindsight

Point-in-time Moat Score (dot colored by tier)Indexed price (total-return (dividends reinvested))Rated Wide-moat that year

How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored CDNA on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.

0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatPoint-in-time Moat Score501002005001,000Indexed price · log scale (2015 = 100)2014201620182020202220242026

Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The price path is a total-return (dividends reinvested) index built from the same data the forward returns use; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.

What followed, in the years it rated Wide

In the reconstructed history shown, CDNA did not rate Wide-moat in any year, so there is no wide-moat track record to report. That absence is itself the honest answer — we don’t manufacture a comparison where the rating never earned one.

Healthcare context

#287 of 710 scored Healthcare companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

  1. #285QSI QUANTUM-SI INCORPORATED42.8Shallow moat
  2. #286SCLX Scilex Holding Co42.8Shallow moat
  3. #288ARDX ARDELYX, INC.42.6Shallow moat
  4. #289MRVI Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc.42.6Shallow moat

Compare CDNA with its nearest peers →All Healthcare companies on the Index →

Common questions about CDNA

Does CAREDX, INC. have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores CAREDX, INC. (CDNA) 42.6 out of 100 — a Shallow moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 43, pricing power 88, returns on capital 4, balance-sheet safety 55, capital allocation 24.
How has CDNA's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 16 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 42.6 out of 100 (shallow moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell CDNA. See the disclaimer.