2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $6.5B to $7.1B, increasing; diluted EPS 4.24 to 8.97, increasing.
23
Median gross margin 30.1% over 10y, variable.
77
Median ROIC 17.9%, above the 12% hurdle in 60% of years.
82
Net debt/EBITDA 0.4x, interest coverage 15x.
64
Owner earnings changed trend unclear over up to the ten most recent annual observations.
Price vs. value if growth stopped today
A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.
Above value if growth stopped todayBelow value if growth stopped today
12% below value if growth stopped today
$1.9B
$136.33
$220.85
$119.77
12% below value if growth stopped today
A discount this large is often a warning rather than a bargain — the market may expect earnings to keep falling. See the revenue trend above.
How to read this
What today’s price assumes: owner earnings shrinking ~3%/yr over 5 years. The estimate assumes owner earnings stay flat (0% growth).
We solve for the constant annual change in owner earnings that would make the five-year zero-growth estimate equal today’s price. This keeps the existing model inputs and calculation unchanged; it is an expectations lens, not a forecast.
This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. The recent FY revenue series does not trigger the three-consecutive-declines flag.
Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 255% above the zero-growth estimate across 49 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.
Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF.
Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 4% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.
20 years of fundamentals
The business, in plain English
CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC. booked $7.1B of revenue in FY2025 in the Materials sector and kept 38.5% of it as gross profit — a solid-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, 25.4% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.
Across the filed record, revenue grew from $2.8B (FY2007) to $7.1B (FY2025) — about 5.4% a year compounded over 18 years.
It earned 30.4% on invested capital in the latest filed year, FY2025. Across the full 19-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was 25.7%. Over the v3 recent window (10 measurable filed years), median ROIC was 17.9%. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 77/100.
The balance sheet carried $3.2B of total debt in FY2025 against $1.8B of owner earnings — roughly 1.8 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 82/100.
Put together: Balance-Sheet Safety is the strongest of the five filters (82/100) and Pricing Power the weakest (23/100), which is how CF lands at 62/100 — a Narrow moat.
This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.
FY2006–FY2025 · 20 fiscal years, normalized from CF’s SEC filings
Sales, as filed$7.1B FY2025Revenue kept after cost of goods38.5% FY2025Standard ROIC or separately labeled Operating ROICStandard ROIC 29.8% FY2025
Exact FY and FY-1 financing invested-capital inputs are required.
Cash an owner could take out$1.8B FY2025
The explained ROIC gaps have filed inputs but no meaningful positive invested-capital denominator. Other gaps mean the item is not in the filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.
Flagship explainer
How CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC. makes its money
Start with a dollar of revenue and follow what the filing says remains.
Honest partial: the filing did not provide a normalized tag for Research and development, Selling, general and administrative; those components are omitted, not plugged.
Position size uses shares and filed value from each manager’s 13F. Portfolio weight uses the eligible long-share filing denominator. Changes compare only with the immediately preceding calendar quarter.
What CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC. insiders reported
Records still being gathered — partial as of retrieval Oct 16, 2026.
Partial coverage: the incomplete Form 4 walk cannot establish no activity, an activity date, or zero counts.
Moat Score history
29 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten
Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale62.1 / 100
Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.
Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars
Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.
Insider activity
Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”
These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.
This machine-readable surface covers SEC ownership filings from 2003; it does not represent earlier paper-era records.
Records still being gathered — partial as of retrieval Oct 16, 2026.
31 filings were skipped because the SEC primary document returned 404; the omission is disclosed and aggregates are withheld.
Trailing-12-month totals and the 90-day cluster result are withheld because this issuer walk is incomplete.
No reported Form 4 rows were captured for CF; the incomplete walk cannot establish zero activity, zero counts, or a negative cluster result.
A filing source-event date will appear when a Form 4 row is captured.
Retrieved .
Track record
How CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC.’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.
Point-in-time scores 2011–2025, one methodology version · reconstructed from filings on file each Dec 31 — never with hindsight
Point-in-time Moat Score (dot colored by tier)Indexed price (total-return (dividends reinvested))Rated Wide-moat that year
How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored CF on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.
Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The price path is a total-return (dividends reinvested) index built from the same data the forward returns use; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.
What followed, in the years it rated Wide
In the reconstructed history shown, CF did not rate Wide-moat in any year, so there is no wide-moat track record to report. That absence is itself the honest answer — we don’t manufacture a comparison where the rating never earned one.
Materials context
#45 of 310 scored Materials companies, ranked by Moat Score.
Does CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC. have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC. (CF) 62.1 out of 100 — a Narrow moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 64, pricing power 23, returns on capital 77, balance-sheet safety 82, capital allocation 64.
Is CF trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
The value if growth stopped today — a zero-growth baseline — is $136.33 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate and assumes 0% growth. Versus a recent price of $119.77, that is 12% below value if growth stopped today. The model also publishes a capped-growth comparison, but the zero-growth estimate is the cautious baseline. It assumes trailing owner earnings persist and is unreliable for declining businesses. This is an educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
How has CF's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 29 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 62.1 out of 100 (narrow moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.
Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell CF. See the disclaimer.