CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC.

CF · Materials · $18.7B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · Narrow moat

Wonderful & reasonably priced

Narrow moat

The four filters

Pricing power23

Median gross margin 30.1% over 10y, variable.

Returns on capital81

Median ROIC 17.9%, above the 9% hurdle in 70% of years.

Balance-sheet safety82

Net debt/EBITDA 0.4x, interest coverage 15x.

Capital discipline64

Owner earnings trend unclear, share count shrinking (buybacks).

Margin of safety

Above valueOn sale

35% below value

Owner earnings (normalized): $1.9B
Est. intrinsic value / share: $186.46
Recent price: $121.70
Discount to value: 35% below value

Conservative model: 9% discount rate, 2% assumed growth (capped at 4%), maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A).

Moat Score history

Score history begins 2026-07-17. Check back as the record builds.

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record can't be backfilled, which is exactly why it's worth keeping.

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Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell CF. See the disclaimer.