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Carlyle Group Inc.

CG · Other · $16.2B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · Shallow moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

Shallow moat
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The five investor questions

10

2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $8.8B to $4.8B, decreasing; diluted EPS 8.20 to 2.18, decreasing. Latest-filed diluted EPS remains usable for Business Trend, but an integer share-count change lacks enough evidence to confirm a comparable EPS basis; valuation growth therefore stays at 0%.

100

Median gross margin 98.4% over 2y, very stable.

—

Not enough years of ROIC data to score returns on capital.

48

Net debt/EBITDA n/ax, interest coverage 10x.

60

Owner earnings changed +50.0%/yr over up to the ten most recent annual observations.

The returnsOnCapital component abstained: Not enough years of ROIC data to score returns on capital. The other four 20% weights were renormalized over the scored 80%.

Price vs. value if growth stopped today

A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.

Above value if growth stopped todayBelow value if growth stopped today
30% above value if growth stopped today
$1.1B
$35.03
$35.03
$45.40
30% above value if growth stopped today

What today’s price assumes: owner earnings growing ~5%/yr over 5 years. The zero-growth estimate assumes owner earnings stay flat (0% growth).

How to read this

We solve for the constant annual change in owner earnings that would make the five-year zero-growth estimate equal today’s price. This keeps the existing model inputs and calculation unchanged; it is an expectations lens, not a forecast.

This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. The recent FY revenue series does not trigger the three-consecutive-declines flag.

Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 239% above the zero-growth estimate across 48 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.

Score records captured Jul 26, 2026.

Exactly which 50 companies?

FTNT, META, MEDP, IBEX, MSFT, GOOGL, LULU, ANF, IDXX, TXRH, FHI, QLYS, FFIV, ADBE, LLY, MANH, VEEV, GRMN, SSD, MNST, DOCS, MCO, CPRT, NTAP, LRCX, NVDA, CORT, SFM, MPTI, ULTA, SN, RMD, ROL, PAYC, IRMD, INTU, DECK, MORN, LGCY, DAL, GWW, ISRG, MPWR, CTAS, LOPE, MRK, CMG, FAST, BKNG, ORLY

Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF, BKNG.

Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 0% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.

17 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Across the filed record, revenue grew from $2.8B (FY2010) to $4.8B (FY2025) — about 3.6% a year compounded over 15 years.

CG's latest filed year, FY2025, doesn't disclose total debt in a form the methodology can use, so current leverage is treated as unmeasured — never assumed to be zero.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

FY2009–FY2025 · 17 fiscal years, normalized from CG’s SEC filings

Sales, as filed$4.8B FY2025
$0$5B2009201520212025
Revenue kept after cost of goods98.2% FY2017
0%50%100%2009201520212025
Standard ROIC or separately labeled Operating ROIC

Not disclosed in CG’s filings for these years — we don’t estimate it.

Cash an owner could take out$901M FY2025
$0$2B2009201520212025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in CG’s filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Flagship explainer

How Carlyle Group Inc. makes its money

Carlyle Group Inc.'s filing does not supply enough comparable lines for a truthful flow chart — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of revenueSource
$4.8B100%
Income before tax$1.2B24%
Income tax$215M4%
$809M17%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What Carlyle Group Inc. owns — and owes

Carlyle Group Inc.'s filing tags don't support a full breakdown — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of assetsSource
Total assets$29.1B100%
Cash and equivalents$2.0B7%
Stockholders’ equity$7.1B24%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What drives Carlyle Group Inc.’s return on equity?

One or more filed inputs needed for the five-factor decomposition are unavailable.

DuPont source inputs
InputValueFiscal yearSource
Net income$809MFY2025
Income before tax$1.2BFY2025
Operating incomeUnavailableFY2025
Revenue$4.8BFY2025
Ending assets$29.1BFY2025
Beginning assets$23.1BFY2024
Ending equity$7.1BFY2025
Beginning equity$6.3BFY2024
Source:
  • SEC filingFiling detailsAccession 0001527166-26-000009
· event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

Where Carlyle Group Inc.'s cash went

Carlyle Group Inc.’s filing does not supply enough provenance-matched cash-flow lines for a truthful flow chart — here’s what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of cash from operationsSource
Cash from operations−$3.3B−100%
Depreciation and amortization$192M6%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Curated 19-manager tier

Who reported holding Carlyle Group Inc.

Delayed public 13F reports for 2026-Q2—not live positions, trades, or recommendations.

1 holding0 exited0 not holding1/19 resolved18 unavailable

Named manager positions and quarter-over-quarter changes
ManagerReported positionQuarter-over-quarterFiling accession
Markel / Markel-Gayner1,327,000 shares$55.9M · 0% of eligible reported 13FUnchanged · 0 shares (0%)
Abrams CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Akre CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Baupost GroupUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Berkshire HathawayUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Brave Warrior AdvisorsUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Dodge & CoxUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
First EagleUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
FundsmithUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Gardner Russo & QuinnUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Gates Foundation TrustUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Mairs & PowerUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Oakmark / Harris AssociatesUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Pershing SquareUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Polen CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Sequoia / Ruane CunniffUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Southeastern Asset ManagementUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Tweedy, BrowneUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Yacktman Asset ManagementUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable

Position size uses shares and filed value from each manager’s 13F. Portfolio weight uses the eligible long-share filing denominator. Changes compare only with the immediately preceding calendar quarter.

Source: · event Jun 30, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026

Flagship explainer

What Carlyle Group Inc. insiders reported

Insider activity is unavailable from the source; no zero-activity claim is shown.

Unavailable: Form 4 activity could not be retrieved for this rendering.

Moat Score history

16 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale54.6 / 100
0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatJul 26, 2026

Score history begins Jul 26, 2026 — the record builds forward from here.

Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

  1. Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)moat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
  2. Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0moat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
  3. Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0moat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Insider activity

Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”

These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.

The insider-filing service is temporarily unavailable, so no partial or guessed answer is shown for CG.

Track record

How Carlyle Group Inc.’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.

Point-in-time scores 2012–2025, one methodology version · reconstructed from filings on file each Dec 31 — never with hindsight

Point-in-time Moat Score (dot colored by tier)Indexed price (total-return (dividends reinvested))Rated Wide-moat that year

How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored CG on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.

0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatPoint-in-time Moat Score100Indexed price · log scale 201220152018202120242025

Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The indexed price path isn't available for this company yet; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.

What followed, in the years it rated Wide

In the reconstructed history shown, CG did not rate Wide-moat in any year, so there is no wide-moat track record to report. That absence is itself the honest answer — we don’t manufacture a comparison where the rating never earned one.

Other context

#22 of 45 scored Other companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

  1. #20HKHC HORIZON KINETICS HOLDING CORPORATION57.7Shallow moat
  2. #21NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc.54.7Shallow moat
  3. #23COHN Cohen & Co Inc.53.3Shallow moat
  4. #24RILY BRC Group Holdings, Inc.53.1Shallow moat

Compare CG with its nearest peers →All Other companies on the Index →

Common questions about CG

Does Carlyle Group Inc. have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) 54.6 out of 100 — a Shallow moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 10, pricing power 100, returns on capital not measurable from the filings, balance-sheet safety 48, capital allocation 60.
Is CG trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
The value if growth stopped today — a zero-growth baseline — is $35.03 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate and assumes 0% growth. Versus a recent price of $45.40, that is 30% above value if growth stopped today. The model also publishes a capped-growth comparison, but the zero-growth estimate is the cautious baseline. It assumes trailing owner earnings persist and is unreliable for declining businesses. This is an educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
How has CG's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 16 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 54.6 out of 100 (shallow moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell CG. See the disclaimer.