Buy Like Buffett
Watchlist

Churchill Downs Inc

CHDN · Communications · $5.7B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · · Shallow moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

Shallow moat
Share / Embed this score
Embed this score

The five investor questions

95

2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $1.6B to $2.9B, increasing; diluted EPS 3.18 to 5.33, increasing. Diluted EPS was derived from net income and diluted weighted-average shares in 2 years where the direct tag was absent.

—

Not enough years of gross-margin data to score pricing power.

14

Median ROIC 8.2%, above the 12% hurdle in 0% of years.

1

Net debt/EBITDA 5.4x, interest coverage 2x.

67

Owner earnings changed +8.4%/yr over up to the ten most recent annual observations, share count n/a.

The pricingPower component abstained: Not enough years of gross-margin data to score pricing power. The other four 20% weights were renormalized over the scored 80%.

Price vs. value if growth stopped today

A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.

Above value if growth stopped todayBelow value if growth stopped today
23% above value if growth stopped today
$417M
$66.62
$66.62
$81.70
23% above value if growth stopped today

What today’s price assumes: owner earnings growing ~4%/yr over 5 years. The zero-growth estimate assumes owner earnings stay flat (0% growth).

How to read this

We solve for the constant annual change in owner earnings that would make the five-year zero-growth estimate equal today’s price. This keeps the existing model inputs and calculation unchanged; it is an expectations lens, not a forecast.

This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. The recent FY revenue series does not trigger the three-consecutive-declines flag.

Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 243% above the zero-growth estimate across 49 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.

Score records captured Oct 18, 2026.

Exactly which 50 companies?

FTNT, IBEX, META, MEDP, MSFT, GOOG, LULU, ANF, IDXX, TXRH, FHI, QLYS, FFIV, ADBE, LLY, MANH, CPRT, VEEV, RMD, GRMN, PCTY, EAT, UI, SSD, MNST, DOCS, LRCX, MCO, NTAP, NVDA, CORT, SFM, MPTI, ULTA, SN, ROL, CTAS, PAYC, IRMD, DECK, MORN, INTU, JKHY, TPR, LGCY, DAL, GWW, ISRG, MPWR, LOPE

Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF.

Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 0% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.

18 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

It earned 8.3% on invested capital in the latest filed year, FY2025. Across the full 17-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was 7.5%. Over the v3 recent window (10 measurable filed years), median ROIC was 8.2%. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 14/100.

The balance sheet carried $5.2B of total debt in FY2025 against $383M of owner earnings — roughly 13.5 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 1/100.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

FY2008–FY2025 · 18 fiscal years, normalized from CHDN’s SEC filings

Sales, as filed$2.9B FY2025
$0$2B2008201420202025
Revenue kept after cost of goods

Not disclosed in CHDN’s filings for these years — we don’t estimate it.

Standard ROIC or separately labeled Operating ROICStandard ROIC 8.4% FY2025

Exact FY and FY-1 financing invested-capital inputs are required.

0%5%10%2008201420202025
Cash an owner could take out$383M FY2025
$0$250M2008201420202025

The explained ROIC gaps have filed inputs but no meaningful positive invested-capital denominator. Other gaps mean the item is not in the filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Flagship explainer

How Churchill Downs Inc makes its money

Churchill Downs Inc's filing does not supply enough comparable lines for a truthful flow chart — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of revenueSource
$2.9B100%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
$684M23%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Income before tax$532M18%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Income tax$147M5%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
$383M13%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Source:
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
· event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Oct 18, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What Churchill Downs Inc owns — and owes

Churchill Downs Inc's filing tags don't support a full breakdown — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of assetsSource
Total assets$7.5B100%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Cash and equivalents$201M3%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
$5.2B69%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Stockholders’ equity$1.0B13%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Source:
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
· event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Oct 18, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What drives Churchill Downs Inc’s return on equity?

ROE is five filed business factors multiplied together.

DuPont return on equity factor treeReturn on equity branches into tax burden, interest burden, operating margin, asset turnover, and the equity multiplier.Return on equity37%Tax burden72%net income ÷ pretax incomeInterest burden78%pretax ÷ operating incomeOperating margin23%operating income ÷ revenueAsset turnover0.40×revenue ÷ average assetsEquity multiplier7.05×average assets ÷ average equityAs of 2025-12-31 · 2 SEC filing sourcesBuy Like Buffett · buylikebuffett.com
DuPont source inputs
InputValueFiscal yearSource
$383MFY2025
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Income before tax$532MFY2025
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Operating income$684MFY2025
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
$2.9BFY2025
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Ending assets$7.5BFY2025
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Beginning assets$7.3BFY2024
  • 10-K · FY 2024Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-25-000051 · filed Feb 20, 2025
  • 10-K · FY 2024Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
$1.0BFY2025
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
$1.1BFY2024
  • 10-K · FY 2024Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-25-000051 · filed Feb 20, 2025
  • 10-K · FY 2024Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Oct 18, 2026 · annual-row source set
Embed this chart

Flagship explainer

Where Churchill Downs Inc's cash went

Churchill Downs Inc’s filing does not supply enough provenance-matched cash-flow lines for a truthful flow chart — here’s what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of cash from operationsSource
Cash from operations$770M100%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Depreciation and amortization$233M30%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Source:
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025 · filed Feb 25, 2026
· event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Oct 18, 2026 · annual-row source set

Curated 19-manager tier

Who reported holding Churchill Downs Inc

Delayed public 13F reports for 2026-Q2—not live positions, trades, or recommendations.

0 holding0 exited0 not holding0/19 resolved19 not retrieved

Named manager positions and quarter-over-quarter changes
ManagerReported positionQuarter-over-quarterFiling accession
Abrams CapitalNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Akre CapitalNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Baupost GroupNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Berkshire HathawayNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Brave Warrior AdvisorsNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Dodge & CoxNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
First EagleNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
FundsmithNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Gardner Russo & QuinnNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Gates Foundation TrustNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Mairs & PowerNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Markel / Markel-GaynerNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Oakmark / Harris AssociatesNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Pershing SquareNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Polen CapitalNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Sequoia / Ruane CunniffNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Southeastern Asset ManagementNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Tweedy, BrowneNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Yacktman Asset ManagementNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved

Position size uses shares and filed value from each manager’s 13F. Portfolio weight uses the eligible long-share filing denominator. Changes compare only with the immediately preceding calendar quarter.

Source: Filing source not retrieved · event Jun 30, 2026 · retrieved Oct 18, 2026

Flagship explainer

What Churchill Downs Inc insiders reported

We could not retrieve insider activity for this rendering; no zero-activity claim is shown.

Unavailable: Form 4 activity could not be retrieved for this rendering.

Moat Score history

31 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale44.2 / 100
0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatJul 20, 2026Oct 18, 2026

Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.

Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

  1. Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)moat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
  2. Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0moat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
  3. Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0moat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Insider activity

Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”

These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.

The insider-filing service is temporarily unavailable, so no partial or guessed answer is shown for CHDN.

Track record

How Churchill Downs Inc’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.

Point-in-time scores 2011–2025, one methodology version · reconstructed from filings on file each Dec 31 — never with hindsight

Point-in-time Moat Score (dot colored by tier)Indexed price (total-return (dividends reinvested))Rated Wide-moat that year

How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored CHDN on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.

0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatPoint-in-time Moat Score1002005001,0002,000Indexed price · log scale (2012 = 100)201120142017202020232026

Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The price path is a total-return (dividends reinvested) index built from the same data the forward returns use; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.

What followed, in the years it rated Wide

In the reconstructed history shown, CHDN did not rate Wide-moat in any year, so there is no wide-moat track record to report. That absence is itself the honest answer — we don’t manufacture a comparison where the rating never earned one.

Communications context

#42 of 136 scored Communications companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

  1. #40WBD Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.45.8Shallow moat
  2. #41APHP American Picture House Corporation45.1Shallow moat
  3. #43FUN Six Flags Entertainment Corporation/NEW43.8Shallow moat
  4. #44TKO TKO GROUP HOLDINGS, INC.43.7Shallow moat

Compare CHDN with its nearest peers →All Communications companies on the Index →

Common questions about CHDN

Does Churchill Downs Inc have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) 44.2 out of 100 — a Shallow moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 95, pricing power not measurable from the filings, returns on capital 14, balance-sheet safety 1, capital allocation 67.
Is CHDN trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
The value if growth stopped today — a zero-growth baseline — is $66.62 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate and assumes 0% growth. Versus a recent price of $81.70, that is 23% above value if growth stopped today. The model also publishes a capped-growth comparison, but the zero-growth estimate is the cautious baseline. It assumes trailing owner earnings persist and is unreliable for declining businesses. This is an educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
How has CHDN's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 31 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 44.2 out of 100 (shallow moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell CHDN. See the disclaimer.