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Churchill Downs Inc

CHDN · Communications · $6.0B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · Shallow moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

Shallow moat
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The five investor questions

95

2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $1.6B to $2.9B, increasing; diluted EPS 3.18 to 5.33, increasing. Diluted EPS was derived from net income and diluted weighted-average shares in 2 years where the direct tag was absent.

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Not enough years of gross-margin data to score pricing power.

14

Median ROIC 8.2%, above the 12% hurdle in 0% of years.

1

Net debt/EBITDA 5.4x, interest coverage 2x.

67

Owner earnings changed +8.4%/yr over up to the ten most recent annual observations, share count n/a.

The pricingPower component abstained: Not enough years of gross-margin data to score pricing power. The other four 20% weights were renormalized over the scored 80%.

Price vs. value if growth stopped today

A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.

Above value if growth stopped todayBelow value if growth stopped today
30% above value if growth stopped today
$417M
$66.62
$66.62
$86.50
30% above value if growth stopped today

What today’s price assumes: owner earnings growing ~5%/yr over 5 years. The zero-growth estimate assumes owner earnings stay flat (0% growth).

How to read this

We solve for the constant annual change in owner earnings that would make the five-year zero-growth estimate equal today’s price. This keeps the existing model inputs and calculation unchanged; it is an expectations lens, not a forecast.

This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. The recent FY revenue series does not trigger the three-consecutive-declines flag.

Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 239% above the zero-growth estimate across 48 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.

Score records captured Jul 26, 2026.

Exactly which 50 companies?

FTNT, META, MEDP, IBEX, MSFT, GOOGL, LULU, ANF, IDXX, TXRH, FHI, QLYS, FFIV, ADBE, LLY, MANH, VEEV, GRMN, SSD, MNST, DOCS, MCO, CPRT, NTAP, LRCX, NVDA, CORT, SFM, MPTI, ULTA, SN, RMD, ROL, PAYC, IRMD, INTU, DECK, MORN, LGCY, DAL, GWW, ISRG, MPWR, CTAS, LOPE, MRK, CMG, FAST, BKNG, ORLY

Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF, BKNG.

Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 0% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.

18 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

It earned 8.3% on invested capital in the latest filed year, FY2025. Across the full 17-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was 7.5%. Over the v3 recent window (10 measurable filed years), median ROIC was 8.2%. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 14/100.

The balance sheet carried $5.2B of total debt in FY2025 against $383M of owner earnings — roughly 13.5 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 1/100.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

FY2008–FY2025 · 18 fiscal years, normalized from CHDN’s SEC filings

Sales, as filed$2.9B FY2025
$0$2B2008201420202025
Revenue kept after cost of goods

Not disclosed in CHDN’s filings for these years — we don’t estimate it.

Standard ROIC or separately labeled Operating ROICROIC 8.3% FY2025
0%5%10%2008201420202025
Cash an owner could take out$383M FY2025
$0$250M2008201420202025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in CHDN’s filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Flagship explainer

How Churchill Downs Inc makes its money

Churchill Downs Inc's filing does not supply enough comparable lines for a truthful flow chart — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of revenueSource
$2.9B100%
$684M23%
Income before tax$532M18%
Income tax$147M5%
$383M13%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What Churchill Downs Inc owns — and owes

Churchill Downs Inc's filing tags don't support a full breakdown — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of assetsSource
Total assets$7.5B100%
Cash and equivalents$201M3%
$5.2B69%
Stockholders’ equity$1.0B13%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What drives Churchill Downs Inc’s return on equity?

ROE is five filed business factors multiplied together.

DuPont return on equity factor treeReturn on equity branches into tax burden, interest burden, operating margin, asset turnover, and the equity multiplier.Return on equity37%Tax burden72%net income ÷ pretax incomeInterest burden78%pretax ÷ operating incomeOperating margin23%operating income ÷ revenueAsset turnover0.40×revenue ÷ average assetsEquity multiplier7.05×average assets ÷ average equityAs of 2025-12-31 · 2 SEC filing sourcesBuy Like Buffett · buylikebuffett.com
DuPont source inputs
InputValueFiscal yearSource
$383MFY2025
Income before tax$532MFY2025
Operating income$684MFY2025
$2.9BFY2025
Ending assets$7.5BFY2025
Beginning assets$7.3BFY2024
$1.0BFY2025
$1.1BFY2024
Source:
  • SEC filingFiling detailsAccession 0000020212-25-000051
  • SEC filingFiling detailsAccession 0000020212-26-000025
· event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set
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Flagship explainer

Where Churchill Downs Inc's cash went

Churchill Downs Inc’s filing does not supply enough provenance-matched cash-flow lines for a truthful flow chart — here’s what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of cash from operationsSource
Cash from operations$770M100%
Depreciation and amortization$233M30%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Curated 19-manager tier

Who reported holding Churchill Downs Inc

Delayed public 13F reports for 2026-Q1—not live positions, trades, or recommendations.

0 holding0 exited0 not holding0/19 resolved19 unavailable

Named manager positions and quarter-over-quarter changes
ManagerReported positionQuarter-over-quarterFiling accession
Abrams CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Akre CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Baupost GroupUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Berkshire HathawayUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Brave Warrior AdvisorsUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Dodge & CoxUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
First EagleUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
FundsmithUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Gardner Russo & QuinnUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Gates Foundation TrustUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Mairs & PowerUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Markel / Markel-GaynerUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Oakmark / Harris AssociatesUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Pershing SquareUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Polen CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Sequoia / Ruane CunniffUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Southeastern Asset ManagementUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Tweedy, BrowneUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Yacktman Asset ManagementUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable

Position size uses shares and filed value from each manager’s 13F. Portfolio weight uses the eligible long-share filing denominator. Changes compare only with the immediately preceding calendar quarter.

Source: Filing source unavailable · event Mar 31, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026

Flagship explainer

What Churchill Downs Inc insiders reported

Records still being gathered — partial as of retrieval Aug 11, 2026.

Partial coverage: the incomplete Form 4 walk cannot establish no activity, an activity date, or zero counts.

Moat Score history

16 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale44.2 / 100
0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatJul 20, 2026Jul 26, 2026

Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.

Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

  1. Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)moat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
  2. Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0moat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
  3. Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0moat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Insider activity

Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”

These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.

This machine-readable surface covers SEC ownership filings from 2003; it does not represent earlier paper-era records.

Records still being gathered — partial as of retrieval Aug 11, 2026.

38 filings were skipped because the SEC primary document returned 404; the omission is disclosed and aggregates are withheld.

Trailing-12-month totals and the 90-day cluster result are withheld because this issuer walk is incomplete.

No reported Form 4 rows were captured for CHDN; the incomplete walk cannot establish zero activity, zero counts, or a negative cluster result.

A filing source-event date will appear when a Form 4 row is captured.

Retrieved .

Communications context

#43 of 134 scored Communications companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

  1. #41WBD Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.45.8Shallow moat
  2. #42APHP American Picture House Corporation45.1Shallow moat
  3. #44FUN Six Flags Entertainment Corporation/NEW43.8Shallow moat
  4. #45TKO TKO GROUP HOLDINGS, INC.43.7Shallow moat

Compare CHDN with its nearest peers →All Communications companies on the Index →

Common questions about CHDN

Does Churchill Downs Inc have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) 44.2 out of 100 — a Shallow moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 95, pricing power not measurable from the filings, returns on capital 14, balance-sheet safety 1, capital allocation 67.
Is CHDN trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
The value if growth stopped today — a zero-growth baseline — is $66.62 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate and assumes 0% growth. Versus a recent price of $86.50, that is 30% above value if growth stopped today. The model also publishes a capped-growth comparison, but the zero-growth estimate is the cautious baseline. It assumes trailing owner earnings persist and is unreliable for declining businesses. This is an educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
How has CHDN's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 16 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 44.2 out of 100 (shallow moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell CHDN. See the disclaimer.