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National Vision Holdings, Inc.

EYE · Healthcare · $1.6B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · Shallow moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

Shallow moat
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The five investor questions

33

2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $2.1B to $2.0B, decreasing; diluted EPS 1.43 to 0.37, decreasing. Latest-filed diluted EPS remains usable for Business Trend, but an integer share-count change lacks enough evidence to confirm a comparable EPS basis; valuation growth therefore stays at 0%.

90

Median gross margin 53.7% over 3y, very stable.

4

Median ROIC 3.8%, above the 12% hurdle in 10% of years.

82

Net debt/EBITDA 1.3x, no material interest expense disclosed.

80

Owner earnings changed +15.3%/yr over up to the ten most recent annual observations, share count n/a.

Price vs. value if growth stopped today

A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.

Above value if growth stopped todayBelow value if growth stopped today
238% above value if growth stopped today
$42.1M
$5.89
$5.89
$19.92
238% above value if growth stopped today

What today’s price assumes: owner earnings growing ~28%/yr over 5 years. The zero-growth estimate assumes owner earnings stay flat (0% growth).

How to read this

We solve for the constant annual change in owner earnings that would make the five-year zero-growth estimate equal today’s price. This keeps the existing model inputs and calculation unchanged; it is an expectations lens, not a forecast.

This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. The recent FY revenue series does not trigger the three-consecutive-declines flag.

Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 239% above the zero-growth estimate across 48 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.

Score records captured Jul 26, 2026.

Exactly which 50 companies?

FTNT, META, MEDP, IBEX, MSFT, GOOGL, LULU, ANF, IDXX, TXRH, FHI, QLYS, FFIV, ADBE, LLY, MANH, VEEV, GRMN, SSD, MNST, DOCS, MCO, CPRT, NTAP, LRCX, NVDA, CORT, SFM, MPTI, ULTA, SN, RMD, ROL, PAYC, IRMD, INTU, DECK, MORN, LGCY, DAL, GWW, ISRG, MPWR, CTAS, LOPE, MRK, CMG, FAST, BKNG, ORLY

Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF, BKNG.

Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 0% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.

12 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Across the filed record, revenue grew from $1.1B (FY2015) to $2.0B (FY2025) — about 6.5% a year compounded over 10 years.

It earned 3.9% on invested capital in the latest filed year, FY2025. Across the full 11-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was 3.9%. Over the v3 recent window (10 measurable filed years), median ROIC was 3.8%. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 4/100.

The balance sheet carried $236M of total debt in FY2025 against $47.9M of owner earnings — roughly 4.9 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 82/100.

Put together: Pricing Power is the strongest of the five filters (90/100) and Returns on Capital the weakest (4/100), which is how EYE lands at 58/100 — a Shallow moat.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

FY2014–FY2025 · 12 fiscal years, normalized from EYE’s SEC filings

Sales, as filed$2.0B FY2025
$0$1B$2B2014201820222025
Revenue kept after cost of goods53.6% FY2018
0%20%40%2014201820222025
Standard ROIC or separately labeled Operating ROICROIC 3.9% FY2025
0%10%2014201820222025
Cash an owner could take out$47.9M FY2025
$0$100M2014201820222025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in EYE’s filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Flagship explainer

How National Vision Holdings, Inc. makes its money

National Vision Holdings, Inc.'s filing does not supply enough comparable lines for a truthful flow chart — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of revenueSource
$2.0B100%
$58.8M3%
Income before tax$41.7M2%
Income tax$12.1M1%
$29.6M1%
Source: · event Jan 3, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What National Vision Holdings, Inc. owns — and owes

National Vision Holdings, Inc.'s filing tags don't support a full breakdown — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of assetsSource
Total assets$2.0B100%
Cash and equivalents$38.7M2%
$236M12%
Stockholders’ equity$870M44%
Source: · event Jan 3, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What drives National Vision Holdings, Inc.’s return on equity?

ROE is five filed business factors multiplied together.

DuPont return on equity factor treeReturn on equity branches into tax burden, interest burden, operating margin, asset turnover, and the equity multiplier.Return on equity4%Tax burden71%net income ÷ pretax incomeInterest burden71%pretax ÷ operating incomeOperating margin3%operating income ÷ revenueAsset turnover1.00×revenue ÷ average assetsEquity multiplier2.37×average assets ÷ average equityAs of 2026-01-03 · 1 SEC filing sourceBuy Like Buffett · buylikebuffett.com
DuPont source inputs
InputValueFiscal yearSource
$29.6MFY2025
Income before tax$41.7MFY2025
Operating income$58.8MFY2025
$2.0BFY2025
Ending assets$2.0BFY2025
Beginning assets$2.0BFY2024
$870MFY2025
$816MFY2024
Source:
  • SEC filingFiling detailsAccession 0001628280-26-014379
· event Jan 3, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set
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Flagship explainer

Where National Vision Holdings, Inc.'s cash went

National Vision Holdings, Inc.’s filing does not supply enough provenance-matched cash-flow lines for a truthful flow chart — here’s what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of cash from operationsSource
Cash from operations$146M100%
Depreciation and amortization$91.2M62%
Source: · event Jan 3, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Curated 19-manager tier

Who reported holding National Vision Holdings, Inc.

Delayed public 13F reports for 2026-Q2—not live positions, trades, or recommendations.

0 holding0 exited1 not holding1/19 resolved18 unavailable

Named manager positions and quarter-over-quarter changes
ManagerReported positionQuarter-over-quarterFiling accession
Markel / Markel-GaynerNo position reportedNo position reported
Abrams CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Akre CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Baupost GroupUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Berkshire HathawayUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Brave Warrior AdvisorsUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Dodge & CoxUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
First EagleUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
FundsmithUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Gardner Russo & QuinnUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Gates Foundation TrustUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Mairs & PowerUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Oakmark / Harris AssociatesUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Pershing SquareUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Polen CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Sequoia / Ruane CunniffUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Southeastern Asset ManagementUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Tweedy, BrowneUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Yacktman Asset ManagementUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable

Position size uses shares and filed value from each manager’s 13F. Portfolio weight uses the eligible long-share filing denominator. Changes compare only with the immediately preceding calendar quarter.

Source: · event Jun 30, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026

Flagship explainer

What National Vision Holdings, Inc. insiders reported

Insider activity is unavailable from the source; no zero-activity claim is shown.

Unavailable: Form 4 activity could not be retrieved for this rendering.

Moat Score history

16 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale57.7 / 100
0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatJul 17, 2026Jul 26, 2026

Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.

Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

  1. Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)moat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
  2. Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0moat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
  3. Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0moat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Insider activity

Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”

These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.

The insider-filing service is temporarily unavailable, so no partial or guessed answer is shown for EYE.

Track record

How National Vision Holdings, Inc.’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.

Point-in-time scores 2017–2025, one methodology version · reconstructed from filings on file each Dec 31 — never with hindsight

Point-in-time Moat Score (dot colored by tier)Indexed price (total-return (dividends reinvested))Rated Wide-moat that year

How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored EYE on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.

0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatPoint-in-time Moat Score50100Indexed price · log scale (2018 = 100)201720192021202320252026

Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The price path is a total-return (dividends reinvested) index built from the same data the forward returns use; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.

What followed, in the years it rated Wide

In the reconstructed history shown, EYE did not rate Wide-moat in any year, so there is no wide-moat track record to report. That absence is itself the honest answer — we don’t manufacture a comparison where the rating never earned one.

Healthcare context

#121 of 710 scored Healthcare companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

  1. #119COLL COLLEGIUM PHARMACEUTICAL, INC57.8Shallow moat
  2. #120IMCR Immunocore Holdings plc57.7Shallow moat
  3. #122MMSI MERIT MEDICAL SYSTEMS INC57.5Shallow moat
  4. #123EVFM EVOFEM BIOSCIENCES, INC.57.2Shallow moat

Compare EYE with its nearest peers →All Healthcare companies on the Index →

Common questions about EYE

Does National Vision Holdings, Inc. have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) 57.7 out of 100 — a Shallow moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 33, pricing power 90, returns on capital 4, balance-sheet safety 82, capital allocation 80.
Is EYE trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
The value if growth stopped today — a zero-growth baseline — is $5.89 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate and assumes 0% growth. Versus a recent price of $19.92, that is 238% above value if growth stopped today. The model also publishes a capped-growth comparison, but the zero-growth estimate is the cautious baseline. It assumes trailing owner earnings persist and is unreliable for declining businesses. This is an educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
How has EYE's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 16 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 57.7 out of 100 (shallow moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell EYE. See the disclaimer.