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FLOWERS FOODS INC

FLO · Consumer Staples · $1.3B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · · No moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

No moat
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The five investor questions

50

2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $4.3B to $5.3B, increasing; diluted EPS 0.97 to 0.40, decreasing.

—

Not enough years of gross-margin data to score pricing power.

17

Median ROIC 8.1%, above the 12% hurdle in 10% of years.

1

Net debt/EBITDA 5.1x, interest coverage 2x.

17

Owner earnings changed -5.3%/yr over up to the ten most recent annual observations.

The pricingPower component abstained: Not enough years of gross-margin data to score pricing power. The other four 20% weights were renormalized over the scored 80%.

Price vs. value if growth stopped today

A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.

Above value if growth stopped todayBelow value if growth stopped today
44% below value if growth stopped today
$207M
$10.86
$10.86
$6.11
44% below value if growth stopped today

A discount this large is often a warning rather than a bargain — the market may expect earnings to keep falling. See the revenue trend above.

How to read this

What today’s price assumes: owner earnings shrinking ~11%/yr over 5 years. The estimate assumes owner earnings stay flat (0% growth).

We solve for the constant annual change in owner earnings that would make the five-year zero-growth estimate equal today’s price. This keeps the existing model inputs and calculation unchanged; it is an expectations lens, not a forecast.

This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. The recent FY revenue series does not trigger the three-consecutive-declines flag.

Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 243% above the zero-growth estimate across 49 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.

Score records captured Oct 18, 2026.

Exactly which 50 companies?

FTNT, IBEX, META, MEDP, MSFT, GOOG, LULU, ANF, IDXX, TXRH, FHI, QLYS, FFIV, ADBE, LLY, MANH, CPRT, VEEV, RMD, GRMN, PCTY, EAT, UI, SSD, MNST, DOCS, LRCX, MCO, NTAP, NVDA, CORT, SFM, MPTI, ULTA, SN, ROL, CTAS, PAYC, IRMD, DECK, MORN, INTU, JKHY, TPR, LGCY, DAL, GWW, ISRG, MPWR, LOPE

Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF.

Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 0% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.

19 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Across the filed record, revenue grew from $2.4B (FY2008) to $5.3B (FY2025) — about 4.7% a year compounded over 17 years.

It earned 4.2% on invested capital in the latest filed year, FY2025. Across the full 18-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was 10.2%. Over the v3 recent window (10 measurable filed years), median ROIC was 8.1%. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 17/100.

The balance sheet carried $1.8B of total debt in FY2025 against $124M of owner earnings — roughly 14.1 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 1/100.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

FY2007–FY2025 · 19 fiscal years, normalized from FLO’s SEC filings

Sales, as filed$5.3B FY2025
$0$2B$4B2007201320192025
Revenue kept after cost of goods47.7% FY2010
0%20%40%2007201320192025
Standard ROIC or separately labeled Operating ROICStandard ROIC 4.6% FY2025

Exact FY and FY-1 financing invested-capital inputs are required.

0%10%2007201320192025
Cash an owner could take out$124M FY2025
$0$100M$200M2007201320192025

The explained ROIC gaps have filed inputs but no meaningful positive invested-capital denominator. Other gaps mean the item is not in the filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Flagship explainer

How FLOWERS FOODS INC makes its money

FLOWERS FOODS INC's filing does not supply enough comparable lines for a truthful flow chart — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of revenueSource
$5.3B100%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
$174M3%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Income before tax$115M2%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Income tax$31.2M1%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
$83.8M2%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Source:
  • 10-K · FY 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
· event Jan 3, 2026 · retrieved Oct 18, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What FLOWERS FOODS INC owns — and owes

FLOWERS FOODS INC's filing tags don't support a full breakdown — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of assetsSource
Total assets$4.2B100%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Cash and equivalents$12.1M0%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
$1.8B42%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Stockholders’ equity$1.3B31%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Source:
  • 10-K · FY 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
· event Jan 3, 2026 · retrieved Oct 18, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What drives FLOWERS FOODS INC’s return on equity?

ROE is five filed business factors multiplied together.

DuPont return on equity factor treeReturn on equity branches into tax burden, interest burden, operating margin, asset turnover, and the equity multiplier.Return on equity6%Tax burden73%net income ÷ pretax incomeInterest burden66%pretax ÷ operating incomeOperating margin3%operating income ÷ revenueAsset turnover1.39×revenue ÷ average assetsEquity multiplier2.79×average assets ÷ average equityAs of 2026-01-03 · 2 SEC filing sourcesBuy Like Buffett · buylikebuffett.com
DuPont source inputs
InputValueFiscal yearSource
$83.8MFY2025
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Income before tax$115MFY2025
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Operating income$174MFY2025
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
$5.3BFY2025
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Ending assets$4.2BFY2025
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Beginning assets$3.4BFY2024
  • 10-K · FY 2024Filing detailsAccession 0000950170-25-022243 · filed Feb 18, 2025
  • 10-K · FY 2024Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
$1.3BFY2025
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
$1.4BFY2024
  • 10-K · FY 2024Filing detailsAccession 0000950170-25-022243 · filed Feb 18, 2025
  • 10-K · FY 2024Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Source: · event Jan 3, 2026 · retrieved Oct 18, 2026 · annual-row source set
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Flagship explainer

Where FLOWERS FOODS INC's cash went

FLOWERS FOODS INC’s filing does not supply enough provenance-matched cash-flow lines for a truthful flow chart — here’s what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of cash from operationsSource
Cash from operations$446M100%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Depreciation and amortization$167M38%
  • 10-K · FY 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
Source:
  • 10-K · FY 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071441 · filed Feb 25, 2026
· event Jan 3, 2026 · retrieved Oct 18, 2026 · annual-row source set

Curated 19-manager tier

Who reported holding FLOWERS FOODS INC

Delayed public 13F reports for 2026-Q2—not live positions, trades, or recommendations.

0 holding0 exited0 not holding0/19 resolved19 not retrieved

Named manager positions and quarter-over-quarter changes
ManagerReported positionQuarter-over-quarterFiling accession
Abrams CapitalNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Akre CapitalNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Baupost GroupNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Berkshire HathawayNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Brave Warrior AdvisorsNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Dodge & CoxNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
First EagleNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
FundsmithNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Gardner Russo & QuinnNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Gates Foundation TrustNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Mairs & PowerNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Markel / Markel-GaynerNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Oakmark / Harris AssociatesNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Pershing SquareNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Polen CapitalNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Sequoia / Ruane CunniffNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Southeastern Asset ManagementNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Tweedy, BrowneNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Yacktman Asset ManagementNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved

Position size uses shares and filed value from each manager’s 13F. Portfolio weight uses the eligible long-share filing denominator. Changes compare only with the immediately preceding calendar quarter.

Source: Filing source not retrieved · event Jun 30, 2026 · retrieved Oct 18, 2026

Flagship explainer

What FLOWERS FOODS INC insiders reported

Records still being gathered — partial as of retrieval Oct 18, 2026.

Partial coverage: the incomplete Form 4 walk cannot establish no activity, an activity date, or zero counts.

Moat Score history

31 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale21.3 / 100
0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatJul 20, 2026Oct 18, 2026

Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.

Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

  1. Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)moat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
  2. Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0moat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
  3. Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0moat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Insider activity

Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”

These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.

This machine-readable surface covers SEC ownership filings from 2003; it does not represent earlier paper-era records.

Records still being gathered — partial as of retrieval Oct 18, 2026.

87 filings were skipped because the SEC primary document returned 404; the omission is disclosed and aggregates are withheld.

Trailing-12-month totals and the 90-day cluster result are withheld because this issuer walk is incomplete.

InsiderShares owned afterDateFiling detail
Cox CindyChief Human Resources OfficerOpen-market or private sale (S)Table I · Disposed · Common Stock4,400$5.8947$25,93741,030Oct 8, 2026
1 filed lot
  • Table I · Common Stock: 4,400 shares at $5.8947 · code S · owned after 41,030 ·

Source-event as of . Retrieved .

Track record

How FLOWERS FOODS INC’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.

Point-in-time scores 2011–2025, one methodology version · reconstructed from filings on file each Dec 31 — never with hindsight

Point-in-time Moat Score (dot colored by tier)Indexed price (total-return (dividends reinvested))Rated Wide-moat that year

How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored FLO on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.

0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatPoint-in-time Moat Score100200Indexed price · log scale (2012 = 100)201120142017202020232026

Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The price path is a total-return (dividends reinvested) index built from the same data the forward returns use; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.

What followed, in the years it rated Wide

In the reconstructed history shown, FLO did not rate Wide-moat in any year, so there is no wide-moat track record to report. That absence is itself the honest answer — we don’t manufacture a comparison where the rating never earned one.

Consumer Staples context

#77 of 85 scored Consumer Staples companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

  1. #75BGS B&G FOODS, INC.22.1No moat
  2. #76SENEA Seneca Foods Corp21.5No moat
  3. #78ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Co21.2No moat
  4. #79RMCF Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory, Inc.21.1No moat

Compare FLO with its nearest peers →All Consumer Staples companies on the Index →

Common questions about FLO

Does FLOWERS FOODS INC have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores FLOWERS FOODS INC (FLO) 21.3 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 50, pricing power not measurable from the filings, returns on capital 17, balance-sheet safety 1, capital allocation 17.
Is FLO trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
The value if growth stopped today — a zero-growth baseline — is $10.86 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate and assumes 0% growth. Versus a recent price of $6.11, that is 44% below value if growth stopped today. The model also publishes a capped-growth comparison, but the zero-growth estimate is the cautious baseline. It assumes trailing owner earnings persist and is unreliable for declining businesses. This is an educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
How has FLO's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 31 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 21.3 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell FLO. See the disclaimer.