Buy Like Buffett
Watchlist

Firefly Aerospace Inc.

FLY · Consumer Discretionary · $3.1B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · · not refreshed in 39 days · Shallow moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

Shallow moat
Share / Embed this score
Embed this score

The five investor questions

60

2023–2025 (latest 3 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $55.2M to $160M, increasing; diluted EPS -13.05 to -4.83, increasing. Latest-filed diluted EPS remains usable for Business Trend, but an integer share-count change lacks enough evidence to confirm a comparable EPS basis; valuation growth therefore stays at 0%.

7

Median gross margin 19.2% over 3y, variable.

—

Not enough years of ROIC data to score returns on capital.

55

Net cash position — no leverage risk.

44

Owner earnings changed trend unclear over up to the ten most recent annual observations.

The returnsOnCapital component abstained: Not enough years of ROIC data to score returns on capital. The other four 20% weights were renormalized over the scored 80%.

Price vs. value if growth stopped today

A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.

Above value if growth stopped todayBelow value if growth stopped today
No price data
Not reported
Unavailable — insufficient owner-earnings data
Unavailable — insufficient growth-model data
$19.69
No price data

This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. Flag status unavailable — four adjacent recent FY revenue observations are required.

Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 239% above the zero-growth estimate across 48 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.

Score records captured Jul 26, 2026.

Exactly which 50 companies?

FTNT, META, MEDP, IBEX, MSFT, GOOGL, LULU, ANF, IDXX, TXRH, FHI, QLYS, FFIV, ADBE, LLY, MANH, VEEV, GRMN, SSD, MNST, DOCS, MCO, CPRT, NTAP, LRCX, NVDA, CORT, SFM, MPTI, ULTA, SN, RMD, ROL, PAYC, IRMD, INTU, DECK, MORN, LGCY, DAL, GWW, ISRG, MPWR, CTAS, LOPE, MRK, CMG, FAST, BKNG, ORLY

Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF, BKNG.

Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 0% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.

4 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Firefly Aerospace Inc. booked $160M of revenue in FY2025 in the Consumer Discretionary sector and kept 19.2% of it as gross profit — a moderate-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, −186.6% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.

The balance sheet carried $7.1M of total debt in FY2025. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 55/100.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

FY2022–FY2025 · 4 fiscal years, normalized from FLY’s SEC filings

Sales, as filed$160M FY2025
$0$100M2022202320242025
Revenue kept after cost of goods19.2% FY2025
0%50%2022202320242025
Standard ROIC or separately labeled Operating ROICROIC −51.0% FY2025

Not meaningful FY2024: invested capital is negative (cash exceeds debt + equity)

−40%−20%0%2022202320242025
Cash an owner could take out−$298M FY2025
−$200M$02022202320242025

The explained ROIC gaps have filed inputs but no meaningful positive invested-capital denominator. Other gaps mean the item is not in the filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Flagship explainer

How Firefly Aerospace Inc. makes its money

Start with a dollar of revenue and follow what the filing says remains.

revenueBranching filed flows with values and percentages directly labeled. Missing filing concepts are omitted rather than estimated.Revenue$160M · 100%Cost of revenue$129M · 81%Gross profit$30.7M · 19%Operating income−$261M · −163%Income before tax−$335M · −210%Income tax−$37.1M · −23%Net income−$298M · −187%As of 2025-12-31 · 1 SEC filing sourceBuy Like Buffett · buylikebuffett.com

Honest partial: the filing did not provide a normalized tag for Research and development, Selling, general and administrative; those components are omitted, not plugged.

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of revenueSource
$160M100%
Cost of revenue$129M81%
$30.7M19%
−$261M−163%
Income before tax−$335M−210%
Income tax−$37.1M−23%
−$298M−187%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set
Embed this chart

Flagship explainer

What Firefly Aerospace Inc. owns — and owes

Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s filing tags don't support a full breakdown — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of assetsSource
Total assets$1.8B100%
Cash and equivalents$793M43%
$7.1M0%
Stockholders’ equity$1.2B65%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What drives Firefly Aerospace Inc.’s return on equity?

ROE is five filed business factors multiplied together.

DuPont return on equity factor treeReturn on equity branches into tax burden, interest burden, operating margin, asset turnover, and the equity multiplier.Return on equity−141%Tax burden89%net income ÷ pretax incomeInterest burden129%pretax ÷ operating incomeOperating margin−163%operating income ÷ revenueAsset turnover0.14×revenue ÷ average assetsEquity multiplier5.29×average assets ÷ average equityAs of 2025-12-31 · 1 SEC filing sourceBuy Like Buffett · buylikebuffett.com
DuPont source inputs
InputValueFiscal yearSource
−$298MFY2025
Income before tax−$335MFY2025
Operating income−$261MFY2025
$160MFY2025
Ending assets$1.8BFY2025
Beginning assets$407MFY2024
$1.2BFY2025
−$768MFY2024
Source:
  • SEC filingFiling detailsAccession 0001193125-26-116309
· event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set
Embed this chart

Flagship explainer

Where Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s cash went

Firefly Aerospace Inc.’s filing does not supply enough provenance-matched cash-flow lines for a truthful flow chart — here’s what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of cash from operationsSource
Cash from operations−$205M−100%
Depreciation and amortization$23.2M11%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Curated 19-manager tier

Who reported holding Firefly Aerospace Inc.

Delayed public 13F reports for 2026-Q2—not live positions, trades, or recommendations.

0 holding0 exited1 not holding1/19 resolved18 not retrieved

Named manager positions and quarter-over-quarter changes
ManagerReported positionQuarter-over-quarterFiling accession
Markel / Markel-GaynerNo position reportedNo position reported
Abrams CapitalNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Akre CapitalNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Baupost GroupNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Berkshire HathawayNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Brave Warrior AdvisorsNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Dodge & CoxNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
First EagleNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
FundsmithNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Gardner Russo & QuinnNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Gates Foundation TrustNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Mairs & PowerNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Oakmark / Harris AssociatesNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Pershing SquareNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Polen CapitalNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Sequoia / Ruane CunniffNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Southeastern Asset ManagementNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Tweedy, BrowneNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Yacktman Asset ManagementNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved

Position size uses shares and filed value from each manager’s 13F. Portfolio weight uses the eligible long-share filing denominator. Changes compare only with the immediately preceding calendar quarter.

Source: · event Jun 30, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026

Flagship explainer

What Firefly Aerospace Inc. insiders reported

We could not retrieve insider activity for this rendering; no zero-activity claim is shown.

Unavailable: Form 4 activity could not be retrieved for this rendering.

Moat Score history

12 logged readings since Jul 18, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale41.3 / 100
0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatJul 20, 2026Jul 26, 2026

Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.

Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

  1. Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)moat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
  2. Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0moat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
  3. Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0moat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Insider activity

Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”

These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.

The insider-filing service is temporarily unavailable, so no partial or guessed answer is shown for FLY.

Track record

How Firefly Aerospace Inc.’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.

Point-in-time scores 2025–2025, one methodology version · reconstructed from filings on file each Dec 31 — never with hindsight

Point-in-time Moat Score (dot colored by tier)Indexed price (total-return (dividends reinvested))Rated Wide-moat that year

How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored FLY on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.

0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatPoint-in-time Moat Score100Indexed price · log scale 2025

Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The indexed price path isn't available for this company yet; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.

What followed, in the years it rated Wide

In the reconstructed history shown, FLY did not rate Wide-moat in any year, so there is no wide-moat track record to report. That absence is itself the honest answer — we don’t manufacture a comparison where the rating never earned one.

Consumer Discretionary context

#285 of 487 scored Consumer Discretionary companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

  1. #283LEA LEAR CORP41.3Shallow moat
  2. #284ONEW OneWater Marine Inc.41.3Shallow moat
  3. #286AKA a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp.41.3Shallow moat
  4. #287WYGC WENYUAN GROUP CORP.41.0Shallow moat

Compare FLY with its nearest peers →All Consumer Discretionary companies on the Index →

Common questions about FLY

Does Firefly Aerospace Inc. have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) 41.3 out of 100 — a Shallow moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 60, pricing power 7, returns on capital not measurable from the filings, balance-sheet safety 55, capital allocation 44.
How has FLY's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 12 readings since Jul 18, 2026; the latest reads 41.3 out of 100 (shallow moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell FLY. See the disclaimer.