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The GEO Group, Inc.

GEO · Industrials · $4.2B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · · not refreshed in 39 days · No moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

No moat
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The five investor questions

78

2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $2.3B to $2.6B, increasing; diluted EPS 0.58 to 1.82, increasing.

—

Not enough years of gross-margin data to score pricing power.

11

Median ROIC 7.6%, above the 12% hurdle in 0% of years.

0

Net debt/EBITDA 4.1x, interest coverage 2x.

31

Owner earnings changed +3.8%/yr over up to the ten most recent annual observations.

The pricingPower component abstained: Not enough years of gross-margin data to score pricing power. The other four 20% weights were renormalized over the scored 80%.

Price vs. value if growth stopped today

A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.

Above value if growth stopped todayBelow value if growth stopped today
137% above value if growth stopped today
$160M
$13.06
$17.51
$30.92
137% above value if growth stopped today

What today’s price assumes: owner earnings growing ~19%/yr over 5 years. The zero-growth estimate assumes owner earnings stay flat (0% growth).

How to read this

We solve for the constant annual change in owner earnings that would make the five-year zero-growth estimate equal today’s price. This keeps the existing model inputs and calculation unchanged; it is an expectations lens, not a forecast.

This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. The recent FY revenue series does not trigger the three-consecutive-declines flag.

Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 239% above the zero-growth estimate across 48 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.

Score records captured Jul 26, 2026.

Exactly which 50 companies?

FTNT, META, MEDP, IBEX, MSFT, GOOGL, LULU, ANF, IDXX, TXRH, FHI, QLYS, FFIV, ADBE, LLY, MANH, VEEV, GRMN, SSD, MNST, DOCS, MCO, CPRT, NTAP, LRCX, NVDA, CORT, SFM, MPTI, ULTA, SN, RMD, ROL, PAYC, IRMD, INTU, DECK, MORN, LGCY, DAL, GWW, ISRG, MPWR, CTAS, LOPE, MRK, CMG, FAST, BKNG, ORLY

Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF, BKNG.

Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 2% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.

19 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Across the filed record, revenue grew from $1.4B (FY2011) to $2.6B (FY2025) — about 4.6% a year compounded over 14 years.

It earned 6.2% on invested capital in the latest filed year, FY2025. Across the full 18-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was 7.9%. Over the v3 recent window (10 measurable filed years), median ROIC was 7.6%. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 11/100.

The balance sheet carried $1.7B of total debt in FY2025 against $254M of owner earnings — roughly 6.5 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 0/100.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

FY2007–FY2025 · 19 fiscal years, normalized from GEO’s SEC filings

Sales, as filed$2.6B FY2025
$0$1B$2B2007201320192025
Revenue kept after cost of goods

Not disclosed in GEO’s filings for these years — we don’t estimate it.

Standard ROIC or separately labeled Operating ROICROIC 6.2% FY2025
0%5%10%2007201320192025
Cash an owner could take out$254M FY2025
$0$100M$200M2007201320192025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in GEO’s filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Flagship explainer

How The GEO Group, Inc. makes its money

The GEO Group, Inc.'s filing does not supply enough comparable lines for a truthful flow chart — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of revenueSource
$2.6B100%
$257M10%
Income before tax$335M13%
Income tax$85.7M3%
$254M10%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What The GEO Group, Inc. owns — and owes

The GEO Group, Inc.'s filing tags don't support a full breakdown — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of assetsSource
Total assets$3.8B100%
Cash and equivalents$69M2%
$1.7B43%
Stockholders’ equity$1.5B39%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What drives The GEO Group, Inc.’s return on equity?

ROE is five filed business factors multiplied together.

DuPont return on equity factor treeReturn on equity branches into tax burden, interest burden, operating margin, asset turnover, and the equity multiplier.Return on equity18%Tax burden76%net income ÷ pretax incomeInterest burden130%pretax ÷ operating incomeOperating margin10%operating income ÷ revenueAsset turnover0.70×revenue ÷ average assetsEquity multiplier2.63×average assets ÷ average equityAs of 2025-12-31 · 1 SEC filing sourceBuy Like Buffett · buylikebuffett.com
DuPont source inputs
InputValueFiscal yearSource
$254MFY2025
Income before tax$335MFY2025
Operating income$257MFY2025
$2.6BFY2025
Ending assets$3.8BFY2025
Beginning assets$3.6BFY2024
$1.5BFY2025
$1.3BFY2024
Source:
  • SEC filingFiling detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071747
· event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set
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Flagship explainer

Where The GEO Group, Inc.'s cash went

The GEO Group, Inc.’s filing does not supply enough provenance-matched cash-flow lines for a truthful flow chart — here’s what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of cash from operationsSource
Cash from operations$72.6M100%
Depreciation and amortization$132M182%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Curated 19-manager tier

Who reported holding The GEO Group, Inc.

Delayed public 13F reports for 2026-Q2—not live positions, trades, or recommendations.

0 holding0 exited0 not holding0/19 resolved19 not retrieved

Named manager positions and quarter-over-quarter changes
ManagerReported positionQuarter-over-quarterFiling accession
Abrams CapitalNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Akre CapitalNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Baupost GroupNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Berkshire HathawayNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Brave Warrior AdvisorsNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Dodge & CoxNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
First EagleNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
FundsmithNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Gardner Russo & QuinnNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Gates Foundation TrustNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Mairs & PowerNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Markel / Markel-GaynerNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Oakmark / Harris AssociatesNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Pershing SquareNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Polen CapitalNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Sequoia / Ruane CunniffNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Southeastern Asset ManagementNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Tweedy, BrowneNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved
Yacktman Asset ManagementNot retrievedComparison not retrievedFiling not retrieved

Position size uses shares and filed value from each manager’s 13F. Portfolio weight uses the eligible long-share filing denominator. Changes compare only with the immediately preceding calendar quarter.

Source: Filing source not retrieved · event Jun 30, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026

Flagship explainer

What The GEO Group, Inc. insiders reported

We could not retrieve insider activity for this rendering; no zero-activity claim is shown.

Unavailable: Form 4 activity could not be retrieved for this rendering.

Moat Score history

16 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale30.1 / 100
0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatJul 20, 2026Jul 26, 2026

Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.

Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

  1. Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)moat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
  2. Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0moat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
  3. Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0moat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Insider activity

Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”

These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.

The insider-filing service is temporarily unavailable, so no partial or guessed answer is shown for GEO.

Track record

How The GEO Group, Inc.’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.

Point-in-time scores 2011–2025, one methodology version · reconstructed from filings on file each Dec 31 — never with hindsight

Point-in-time Moat Score (dot colored by tier)Indexed price (total-return (dividends reinvested))Rated Wide-moat that year

How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored GEO on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.

0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatPoint-in-time Moat Score100200500Indexed price · log scale (2012 = 100)201120142017202020232026

Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The price path is a total-return (dividends reinvested) index built from the same data the forward returns use; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.

What followed, in the years it rated Wide

In the reconstructed history shown, GEO did not rate Wide-moat in any year, so there is no wide-moat track record to report. That absence is itself the honest answer — we don’t manufacture a comparison where the rating never earned one.

Industrials context

#343 of 446 scored Industrials companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

  1. #341INGM Ingram Micro Holding Corp30.2No moat
  2. #342KOSS KOSS CORPORATION30.1No moat
  3. #344CVV CVD EQUIPMENT CORPORATION29.9No moat
  4. #345AIRT Air T, Inc.29.8No moat

Compare GEO with its nearest peers →All Industrials companies on the Index →

Common questions about GEO

Does The GEO Group, Inc. have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) 30.1 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 78, pricing power not measurable from the filings, returns on capital 11, balance-sheet safety 0, capital allocation 31.
Is GEO trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
The value if growth stopped today — a zero-growth baseline — is $13.06 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate and assumes 0% growth. Versus a recent price of $30.92, that is 137% above value if growth stopped today. The model also publishes a capped-growth comparison, but the zero-growth estimate is the cautious baseline. It assumes trailing owner earnings persist and is unreliable for declining businesses. This is an educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
How has GEO's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 16 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 30.1 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell GEO. See the disclaimer.