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Graphic Packaging Holding Co

GPK · Materials · $3.3B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · No moat ·

Price verdict withheld — value if growth stopped today unreliable

No moat
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The five investor questions

74

2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $7.1B to $8.6B, increasing; diluted EPS 0.68 to 1.48, increasing.

23

Median gross margin 18.0% over 10y, stable.

18

Median ROIC 9.1%, above the 12% hurdle in 0% of years.

5

Net debt/EBITDA 4.0x, interest coverage 4x.

73

Owner earnings changed +6.7%/yr over up to the ten most recent annual observations.

Price vs. value if growth stopped today

A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.

Above value if growth stopped todayBelow value if growth stopped today
44% below value if growth stopped today
$522M
$19.65
$31.84
$11.02
44% below value if growth stopped today

A discount this large is often a warning rather than a bargain — the market may expect earnings to keep falling. See the revenue trend above.

How to read this

What today’s price assumes: owner earnings shrinking ~11%/yr over 5 years. The estimate assumes owner earnings stay flat (0% growth).

We solve for the constant annual change in owner earnings that would make the five-year zero-growth estimate equal today’s price. This keeps the existing model inputs and calculation unchanged; it is an expectations lens, not a forecast.

This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. GPK revenue fell in each of the three most recent year-over-year FY comparisons, so this estimate is flagged as unreliable for this company.

Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 239% above the zero-growth estimate across 48 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.

Score records captured Jul 26, 2026.

Exactly which 50 companies?

FTNT, META, MEDP, IBEX, MSFT, GOOGL, LULU, ANF, IDXX, TXRH, FHI, QLYS, FFIV, ADBE, LLY, MANH, VEEV, GRMN, SSD, MNST, DOCS, MCO, CPRT, NTAP, LRCX, NVDA, CORT, SFM, MPTI, ULTA, SN, RMD, ROL, PAYC, IRMD, INTU, DECK, MORN, LGCY, DAL, GWW, ISRG, MPWR, CTAS, LOPE, MRK, CMG, FAST, BKNG, ORLY

Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF, BKNG.

Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 4% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.

18 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Graphic Packaging Holding Co booked $8.6B of revenue in FY2025 in the Materials sector and kept 18.2% of it as gross profit — a moderate-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, 5.2% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.

Across the filed record, revenue grew from $4.1B (FY2009) to $8.6B (FY2025) — about 4.7% a year compounded over 16 years.

It earned 7.1% on invested capital in the latest filed year, FY2025. Across the full 17-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was 8.9%. Over the v3 recent window (10 measurable filed years), median ROIC was 9.1%. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 18/100.

The balance sheet carried $5.6B of total debt in FY2025 against $444M of owner earnings — roughly 12.5 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 5/100.

Put together: Business Trend is the strongest of the five filters (74/100) and Balance-Sheet Safety the weakest (5/100), which is how GPK lands at 39/100 — a None moat.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

FY2008–FY2025 · 18 fiscal years, normalized from GPK’s SEC filings

Sales, as filed$8.6B FY2025
$0$5B$10B2008201420202025
Revenue kept after cost of goods18.2% FY2025
0%10%20%2008201420202025
Standard ROIC or separately labeled Operating ROICROIC 7.1% FY2025
0%20%2008201420202025
Cash an owner could take out$444M FY2025
$0$500M2008201420202025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in GPK’s filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Flagship explainer

How Graphic Packaging Holding Co makes its money

Start with a dollar of revenue and follow what the filing says remains.

revenueBranching filed flows with values and percentages directly labeled. Missing filing concepts are omitted rather than estimated.Revenue$8.6B · 100%Cost of revenue$7.0B · 82%Gross profit$1.6B · 18%Operating income$804M · 9%Income before tax$582M · 7%Income tax$139M · 2%Net income$444M · 5%As of 2025-12-31 · 1 SEC filing sourceBuy Like Buffett · buylikebuffett.com

Honest partial: the filing did not provide a normalized tag for Research and development, Selling, general and administrative; those components are omitted, not plugged.

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of revenueSource
$8.6B100%
Cost of revenue$7.0B82%
$1.6B18%
$804M9%
Income before tax$582M7%
Income tax$139M2%
$444M5%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set
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Flagship explainer

What Graphic Packaging Holding Co owns — and owes

Graphic Packaging Holding Co's filing tags don't support a full breakdown — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of assetsSource
Total assets$11.8B100%
Cash and equivalents$261M2%
$5.6B47%
Stockholders’ equity$3.3B28%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What drives Graphic Packaging Holding Co’s return on equity?

ROE is five filed business factors multiplied together.

DuPont return on equity factor treeReturn on equity branches into tax burden, interest burden, operating margin, asset turnover, and the equity multiplier.Return on equity14%Tax burden76%net income ÷ pretax incomeInterest burden72%pretax ÷ operating incomeOperating margin9%operating income ÷ revenueAsset turnover0.75×revenue ÷ average assetsEquity multiplier3.61×average assets ÷ average equityAs of 2025-12-31 · 1 SEC filing sourceBuy Like Buffett · buylikebuffett.com
DuPont source inputs
InputValueFiscal yearSource
$444MFY2025
Income before tax$582MFY2025
Operating income$804MFY2025
$8.6BFY2025
Ending assets$11.8BFY2025
Beginning assets$11.1BFY2024
$3.3BFY2025
$3.0BFY2024
Source:
  • SEC filingFiling detailsAccession 0001408075-26-000009
· event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set
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Flagship explainer

Where Graphic Packaging Holding Co's cash went

Graphic Packaging Holding Co’s filing does not supply enough provenance-matched cash-flow lines for a truthful flow chart — here’s what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of cash from operationsSource
Cash from operations$841M100%
Depreciation and amortization$536M64%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Curated 19-manager tier

Who reported holding Graphic Packaging Holding Co

Delayed public 13F reports for 2026-Q1—not live positions, trades, or recommendations.

0 holding0 exited19 not holding19/19 resolved

Named manager positions and quarter-over-quarter changes
ManagerReported positionQuarter-over-quarterFiling accession
Abrams CapitalNo position reportedNo position reported
Akre CapitalNo position reportedNo position reported
Baupost GroupNo position reportedNo position reported
Berkshire HathawayNo position reportedNo position reported
Brave Warrior AdvisorsNo position reportedNo position reported
Dodge & CoxNo position reportedNo position reported
First EagleNo position reportedNo position reported
FundsmithNo position reportedNo position reported
Gardner Russo & QuinnNo position reportedNo position reported
Gates Foundation TrustNo position reportedNo position reported
Mairs & PowerNo position reportedNo position reported
Markel / Markel-GaynerNo position reportedNo position reported
Oakmark / Harris AssociatesNo position reportedNo position reported
Pershing SquareNo position reportedNo position reported
Polen CapitalNo position reportedNo position reported
Sequoia / Ruane CunniffNo position reportedNo position reported
Southeastern Asset ManagementNo position reportedNo position reported
Tweedy, BrowneNo position reportedNo position reported
Yacktman Asset ManagementNo position reportedNo position reported

Position size uses shares and filed value from each manager’s 13F. Portfolio weight uses the eligible long-share filing denominator. Changes compare only with the immediately preceding calendar quarter.

Source:
38 SEC filings
  1. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000813917-26-000022 · filed Feb 17, 2026
  2. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0000813917-26-000038 · filed May 15, 2026
  3. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000860643-26-000001 · filed Feb 12, 2026
  4. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0000860643-26-000003 · filed May 13, 2026
  5. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000905567-26-000001 · filed Feb 3, 2026
  6. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0000905567-26-000002 · filed May 1, 2026
  7. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000919574-26-000775 · filed Feb 13, 2026
  8. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0000919574-26-003132 · filed May 15, 2026
  9. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001061768-26-000005 · filed Feb 13, 2026
  10. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001061768-26-000007 · filed May 14, 2026
  11. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001096343-26-000011 · filed Feb 6, 2026
  12. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001096343-26-000044 · filed May 1, 2026
  13. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001104659-26-016458 · filed Feb 17, 2026
  14. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001104659-26-062592 · filed May 15, 2026
  15. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001112520-26-000008 · filed Feb 13, 2026
  16. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001112520-26-000009 · filed May 14, 2026
  17. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-000654 · filed Feb 12, 2026
  18. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-000791 · filed Feb 13, 2026
  19. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-001057 · filed Feb 17, 2026
  20. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-001068 · filed Feb 17, 2026
  21. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-001091 · filed Feb 17, 2026
  22. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-001819 · filed May 14, 2026
  23. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-001911 · filed May 14, 2026
  24. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-001966 · filed May 14, 2026
  25. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-002294 · filed May 15, 2026
  26. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-002336 · filed May 15, 2026
  27. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-033986 · filed Feb 3, 2026
  28. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-050636 · filed Feb 13, 2026
  29. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-054580 · filed Feb 17, 2026
  30. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-208439 · filed May 6, 2026
  31. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-223352 · filed May 14, 2026
  32. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-226661 · filed May 15, 2026
  33. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001325447-26-000004 · filed Feb 4, 2026
  34. 13F-HR/A · Q1 2026 · Amendment RESTATEMENTFiling detailsAccession 0001325447-26-000018 · filed May 14, 2026
  35. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001398344-26-003084 · filed Feb 13, 2026
  36. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001398344-26-009296 · filed May 15, 2026
  37. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001569205-26-000002 · filed Feb 17, 2026
  38. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001569205-26-000005 · filed May 15, 2026
· event Mar 31, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026

Flagship explainer

What Graphic Packaging Holding Co insiders reported

Records still being gathered — partial as of retrieval Aug 11, 2026.

Partial coverage: the incomplete Form 4 walk cannot establish no activity, an activity date, or zero counts.

Moat Score history

16 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale38.6 / 100
0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatJul 17, 2026Jul 26, 2026

Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.

Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

  1. Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)moat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
  2. Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0moat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
  3. Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0moat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Insider activity

Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”

These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.

This machine-readable surface covers SEC ownership filings from 2003; it does not represent earlier paper-era records.

Records still being gathered — partial as of retrieval Aug 11, 2026.

Trailing-12-month totals and the 90-day cluster result are withheld because this issuer walk is incomplete.

No reported Form 4 rows were captured for GPK; the incomplete walk cannot establish zero activity, zero counts, or a negative cluster result.

A filing source-event date will appear when a Form 4 row is captured.

Retrieved .

Materials context

#160 of 309 scored Materials companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

  1. #158SWIM Latham Group, Inc.38.7No moat
  2. #159ROG Rogers Corporation38.6No moat
  3. #161NL NL INDUSTRIES, INC.38.5No moat
  4. #162NPO ENPRO INC38.4No moat

Compare GPK with its nearest peers →All Materials companies on the Index →

Common questions about GPK

Does Graphic Packaging Holding Co have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores Graphic Packaging Holding Co (GPK) 38.6 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 74, pricing power 23, returns on capital 18, balance-sheet safety 5, capital allocation 73.
Is GPK trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
The value if growth stopped today — a zero-growth baseline — is $19.65 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate and assumes 0% growth. Versus a recent price of $11.02, that is 44% below value if growth stopped today. The model also publishes a capped-growth comparison, but the zero-growth estimate is the cautious baseline. It assumes trailing owner earnings persist and is unreliable for declining businesses. This is an educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
How has GPK's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 16 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 38.6 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell GPK. See the disclaimer.