Green Brick Partners, Inc.

GRBK · Industrials · $3.0B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · Shallow moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

Shallow moat
Share / Embed this score
Embed this score

The five investor questions

Revenue & EPS trend75

2011–2025: revenue 653073000.00 to 2039994000.00, increasing; diluted EPS -1.84 to 7.07, increasing. Diluted EPS was derived from net income and diluted weighted-average shares in 1 year where the direct tag was absent. Latest-filed diluted EPS remains usable for Business Trend, but an integer share-count change lacks enough evidence to confirm a comparable EPS basis; valuation growth therefore stays at 0%.

Pricing power33

Median gross margin 25.8% over 10y, stable.

Returns on capital24

Median ROIC 7.9%, above the 12% hurdle in 33% of years.

Balance-sheet safety

Insufficient leverage/coverage inputs to score the balance sheet.

Capital discipline100

Owner earnings +33.2%/yr, share count shrinking (buybacks).

The balanceSheet component abstained: Insufficient leverage/coverage inputs to score the balance sheet. The other four 20% weights were renormalized over the scored 80%.

Price vs. owner-earnings value range

Above estimateBelow estimate
6% below high estimate
Owner earnings (normalized)
$292.3M
Value range / share
$75.16–$75.16
Conservative high estimate / share
$75.16
Recent price
$70.50
Price vs. high estimate
6% below high estimate

Conservative range under moat-index@2.0.0: low end 11.1×, high end capped at 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 0% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.

17 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Green Brick Partners, Inc. booked $2.0B of revenue in FY2025 in the Industrials sector and kept 31.4% of it as gross profit — a moderate-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, 15.4% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.

Across the filed record, revenue grew from $453.4M (FY2010) to $2.0B (FY2025) — about 10.5% a year compounded over 15 years.

It earned 13.3% on invested capital in FY2018, with a median of 7.9% across 9 filed years. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 24/100.

The balance sheet carried $323.3M of total debt in FY2025 against $313.5M of owner earnings — roughly 1.0 years of owner earnings to retire it all.

The share count rose 64.4% between FY2010 and FY2025 — existing owners have been diluted over the record. Capital Discipline scores it 100/100.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

FY2009–FY2025 · 17 fiscal years, normalized from GRBK’s SEC filings

RevenueSales, as filed$2.0B FY2025
$0$1B$2B2009201520212025
Gross marginRevenue kept after cost of goods31.4% FY2025
0%20%2009201520212025
Return on invested capitalOperating profit on the capital employed13.3% FY2018
−20%0%20%2009201520212025
Owner earningsCash an owner could take out$313.5M FY2025
$0$200M$400M2009201520212025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in GRBK’s filings for that year — the series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Moat Score history

9 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale57.9 / 100
0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatJul 20, 2026Jul 21, 2026

Tier changesSame-methodology crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

  1. Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0tomoat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record can’t be backfilled, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Track record

How Green Brick Partners, Inc.’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.

As-of scores 20112025, one methodology version · reconstructed from filings on file each Dec 31 — never with hindsight

As-of Moat Score (dot colored by tier)Indexed price (total-return (dividends reinvested))Rated Wide-moat that year

How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored GRBK on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.

0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatAs-of Moat Score2050100200500Indexed price · log scale (2012 = 100)201120142017202020232026

Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The price path is a total-return (dividends reinvested) index built from the same data the forward returns use; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.

What followed, in the years it rated Wide

In the reconstructed history shown, GRBK did not rate Wide-moat in any year, so there is no wide-moat track record to report. That absence is itself the honest answer — we don’t manufacture a comparison where the rating never earned one.

Industrials context

#125 of 423 scored Industrials companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

  1. #123SITE SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.58.8 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
  2. #124STRL Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.58.1 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
  3. #126NELR NEOLARA CORP.57.9 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
  4. #127TAYD Taylor Devices, Inc.57.4 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat

Compare GRBK with its nearest peersAll Industrials companies on the Index →

Common questions about GRBK

Does Green Brick Partners, Inc. have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) 57.9 out of 100 — a Shallow moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 75, pricing power 33, returns on capital 24, balance-sheet safety not measurable from the filings, capital discipline 100.
Is GRBK trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
The owner-earnings value range is $75.16–$75.16 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate; the low end assumes 0% growth and the high end uses 0% growth, capped at 4% and 18×. Versus a recent price of $70.50, that is 6% below high estimate relative to the high estimate. This is a conservative educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
How has GRBK's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 9 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 57.9 out of 100 (shallow moat). No tier changes on record yet. (A methodology upgrade on Jul 20, 2026 re-based the score; readings across engine versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.
Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) Moat Score — The Moat Index · Buy Like Buffett