Green Brick Partners, Inc.

GRBK · Industrials · $3.1B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · Narrow moat ·

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The five investor questions

95

2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $1.4B to $2.0B, increasing; diluted EPS 3.72 to 7.07, increasing. Latest-filed diluted EPS remains usable for Business Trend, but an integer share-count change lacks enough evidence to confirm a comparable EPS basis; valuation growth therefore stays at 0%.

33

Median gross margin 25.8% over 10y, stable.

24

Median ROIC 7.9%, above the 12% hurdle in 33% of years.

Insufficient leverage/coverage inputs to score the balance sheet.

100

Owner earnings changed +33.2%/yr over up to the ten most recent annual observations.

The balanceSheet component abstained: Insufficient leverage/coverage inputs to score the balance sheet. The other four 20% weights were renormalized over the scored 80%.

Price vs. value if growth stopped today

A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.

Above value if growth stopped todayBelow value if growth stopped today
4% below value if growth stopped today
$292M
$75.16
$75.16
$72.48
4% below value if growth stopped today

A discount this large is often a warning rather than a bargain — the market may expect earnings to keep falling. See the revenue trend above.

How to read this

What today’s price assumes: owner earnings shrinking ~1%/yr over 5 years. The estimate assumes owner earnings stay flat (0% growth).

We solve for the constant annual change in owner earnings that would make the five-year zero-growth estimate equal today’s price. This keeps the existing model inputs and calculation unchanged; it is an expectations lens, not a forecast.

This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. The recent FY revenue series does not trigger the three-consecutive-declines flag.

Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 0% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.

17 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Green Brick Partners, Inc. booked $2.0B of revenue in FY2025 in the Industrials sector and kept 31.4% of it as gross profit — a moderate-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, 15.4% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.

Across the filed record, revenue grew from $453M (FY2010) to $2.0B (FY2025) — about 10.5% a year compounded over 15 years.

ROIC is not available for the latest filed year, FY2025. Across the full 9-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was 7.9%. Over the v3 recent window (3 measurable filed years), median ROIC was 7.9%. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 24/100.

The balance sheet carried $323M of total debt in FY2025 against $314M of owner earnings — roughly 1.0 years of owner earnings to retire it all.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

FY2009–FY2025 · 17 fiscal years, normalized from GRBK’s SEC filings

Sales, as filed$2.0B FY2025
$0$1B$2B2009201520212025
Revenue kept after cost of goods31.4% FY2025
0%20%2009201520212025
Standard ROIC or separately labeled Operating ROICROIC 13.3% FY2018
−20%0%20%2009201520212025
Cash an owner could take out$314M FY2025
$0$200M$400M2009201520212025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in GRBK’s filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Visual explainers

The filing-backed explainer service is temporarily unavailable, so no partial or guessed chart is shown.

Moat Score history

16 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale62.9 / 100
0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatJul 20, 2026Jul 26, 2026

Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.

Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

  1. Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)tomoat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
  2. Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0tomoat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
  3. Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0tomoat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Insider activity

Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”

These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.

The insider-filing service is temporarily unavailable, so no partial or guessed answer is shown for GRBK.

Industrials context

#98 of 446 scored Industrials companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

  1. #96DTI DRILLING TOOLS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION63.2 out of 100, Narrow moatNarrow moat
  2. #97NUS NU SKIN ENTERPRISES, INC.63.1 out of 100, Narrow moatNarrow moat
  3. #99TAYD Taylor Devices, Inc.62.7 out of 100, Narrow moatNarrow moat
  4. #100OTIS OTIS WORLDWIDE CORPORATION62.1 out of 100, Narrow moatNarrow moat

Compare GRBK with its nearest peersAll Industrials companies on the Index →

Common questions about GRBK

Does Green Brick Partners, Inc. have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) 62.9 out of 100 — a Narrow moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 95, pricing power 33, returns on capital 24, balance-sheet safety not measurable from the filings, capital allocation 100.
Is GRBK trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
The value if growth stopped today — a zero-growth baseline — is $75.16 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate and assumes 0% growth. Versus a recent price of $72.48, that is 4% below value if growth stopped today. The model also publishes a capped-growth comparison, but the zero-growth estimate is the cautious baseline. It assumes trailing owner earnings persist and is unreliable for declining businesses. This is an educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
How has GRBK's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 16 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 62.9 out of 100 (narrow moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.