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GREEN THUMB INDUSTRIES INC.

GTBIF · Agriculture · $1.7B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · Shallow moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

Shallow moat
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The five investor questions

89

2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $894M to $1.2B, increasing; diluted EPS 0.33 to 0.48, increasing.

80

Median gross margin 49.7% over 8y, very stable.

7

Median ROIC 6.5%, above the 12% hurdle in 0% of years.

67

Net cash position — no leverage risk.

24

Owner earnings changed trend unclear over up to the ten most recent annual observations.

Price vs. value if growth stopped today

A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.

Above value if growth stopped todayBelow value if growth stopped today
98% above value if growth stopped today
$75.4M
$3.54
$5.73
$7.02
98% above value if growth stopped today

What today’s price assumes: owner earnings growing ~15%/yr over 5 years. The zero-growth estimate assumes owner earnings stay flat (0% growth).

How to read this

We solve for the constant annual change in owner earnings that would make the five-year zero-growth estimate equal today’s price. This keeps the existing model inputs and calculation unchanged; it is an expectations lens, not a forecast.

This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. The recent FY revenue series does not trigger the three-consecutive-declines flag.

Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 239% above the zero-growth estimate across 48 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.

Score records captured Jul 26, 2026.

Exactly which 50 companies?

FTNT, META, MEDP, IBEX, MSFT, GOOGL, LULU, ANF, IDXX, TXRH, FHI, QLYS, FFIV, ADBE, LLY, MANH, VEEV, GRMN, SSD, MNST, DOCS, MCO, CPRT, NTAP, LRCX, NVDA, CORT, SFM, MPTI, ULTA, SN, RMD, ROL, PAYC, IRMD, INTU, DECK, MORN, LGCY, DAL, GWW, ISRG, MPWR, CTAS, LOPE, MRK, CMG, FAST, BKNG, ORLY

Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF, BKNG.

Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 4% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.

9 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

GREEN THUMB INDUSTRIES INC. booked $1.2B of revenue in FY2025 in the Agriculture sector and kept 48.9% of it as gross profit — a solid-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, 9.7% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.

Across the filed record, revenue grew from $62.5M (FY2018) to $1.2B (FY2025) — about 52.1% a year compounded over 7 years.

It earned 4.8% on invested capital in the latest filed year, FY2025. Across the full 8-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was 6.5%. Over the v3 recent window (8 measurable filed years), median ROIC was 6.5%. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 7/100.

The balance sheet carried $247M of total debt in FY2025 against $179M of owner earnings — roughly 1.4 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 67/100.

Put together: Business Trend is the strongest of the five filters (89/100) and Returns on Capital the weakest (7/100), which is how GTBIF lands at 53/100 — a Shallow moat.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

FY2017–FY2025 · 9 fiscal years, normalized from GTBIF’s SEC filings

Sales, as filed$1.2B FY2025
$0$500M$1B2017202020232025
Revenue kept after cost of goods48.9% FY2025
0%20%40%2017202020232025
Standard ROIC or separately labeled Operating ROICROIC 4.8% FY2025
−10%0%10%2017202020232025
Cash an owner could take out$179M FY2025
$0$100M2017202020232025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in GTBIF’s filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Flagship explainer

How GREEN THUMB INDUSTRIES INC. makes its money

Start with a dollar of revenue and follow what the filing says remains.

revenueBranching filed flows with values and percentages directly labeled. Missing filing concepts are omitted rather than estimated.Revenue$1.2B · 100%Cost of revenue$600M · 51%Gross profit$575M · 49%Operating income$138M · 12%Income before tax$263M · 22%Income tax$147M · 13%Net income$114M · 10%As of 2025-12-31 · 1 SEC filing sourceBuy Like Buffett · buylikebuffett.com

Honest partial: the filing did not provide a normalized tag for Research and development, Selling, general and administrative; those components are omitted, not plugged.

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of revenueSource
$1.2B100%
Cost of revenue$600M51%
$575M49%
$138M12%
Income before tax$263M22%
Income tax$147M13%
$114M10%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set
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Flagship explainer

What GREEN THUMB INDUSTRIES INC. owns — and owes

GREEN THUMB INDUSTRIES INC.'s filing tags don't support a full breakdown — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of assetsSource
Total assets$2.8B100%
Cash and equivalents$274M10%
$247M9%
Stockholders’ equity$1.9B68%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What drives GREEN THUMB INDUSTRIES INC.’s return on equity?

ROE is five filed business factors multiplied together.

DuPont return on equity factor treeReturn on equity branches into tax burden, interest burden, operating margin, asset turnover, and the equity multiplier.Return on equity6%Tax burden43%net income ÷ pretax incomeInterest burden191%pretax ÷ operating incomeOperating margin12%operating income ÷ revenueAsset turnover0.44×revenue ÷ average assetsEquity multiplier1.44×average assets ÷ average equityAs of 2025-12-31 · 2 SEC filing sourcesBuy Like Buffett · buylikebuffett.com
DuPont source inputs
InputValueFiscal yearSource
$114MFY2025
Income before tax$263MFY2025
Operating income$138MFY2025
$1.2BFY2025
Ending assets$2.8BFY2025
Beginning assets$2.5BFY2024
$1.9BFY2025
$1.8BFY2024
Source:
  • SEC filingFiling detailsAccession 0000950170-25-028273
  • SEC filingFiling detailsAccession 0001193125-26-071672
· event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set
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Flagship explainer

Where GREEN THUMB INDUSTRIES INC.'s cash went

GREEN THUMB INDUSTRIES INC.’s filing does not supply enough provenance-matched cash-flow lines for a truthful flow chart — here’s what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of cash from operationsSource
Cash from operations$295M100%
Depreciation and amortization$145M49%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Curated 19-manager tier

Who reported holding GREEN THUMB INDUSTRIES INC.

Delayed public 13F reports for 2026-Q2—not live positions, trades, or recommendations.

0 holding0 exited0 not holding0/19 resolved19 unavailable

Named manager positions and quarter-over-quarter changes
ManagerReported positionQuarter-over-quarterFiling accession
Abrams CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Akre CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Baupost GroupUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Berkshire HathawayUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Brave Warrior AdvisorsUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Dodge & CoxUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
First EagleUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
FundsmithUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Gardner Russo & QuinnUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Gates Foundation TrustUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Mairs & PowerUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Markel / Markel-GaynerUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Oakmark / Harris AssociatesUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Pershing SquareUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Polen CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Sequoia / Ruane CunniffUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Southeastern Asset ManagementUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Tweedy, BrowneUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Yacktman Asset ManagementUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable

Position size uses shares and filed value from each manager’s 13F. Portfolio weight uses the eligible long-share filing denominator. Changes compare only with the immediately preceding calendar quarter.

Source: Filing source unavailable · event Jun 30, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026

Flagship explainer

What GREEN THUMB INDUSTRIES INC. insiders reported

Records still being gathered — partial as of retrieval Aug 19, 2026.

Partial coverage: the incomplete Form 4 walk cannot establish no activity, an activity date, or zero counts.

Moat Score history

16 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale53.4 / 100
0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatJul 17, 2026Jul 26, 2026

Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.

Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

  1. Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)moat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
  2. Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0moat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
  3. Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0moat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Insider activity

Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”

These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.

This machine-readable surface covers SEC ownership filings from 2003; it does not represent earlier paper-era records.

Records still being gathered — partial as of retrieval Aug 19, 2026.

Trailing-12-month totals and the 90-day cluster result are withheld because this issuer walk is incomplete.

No reported Form 4 rows were captured for GTBIF; the incomplete walk cannot establish zero activity, zero counts, or a negative cluster result.

A filing source-event date will appear when a Form 4 row is captured.

Retrieved .

Track record

How GREEN THUMB INDUSTRIES INC.’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.

Point-in-time scores 2020–2025, one methodology version · reconstructed from filings on file each Dec 31 — never with hindsight

Point-in-time Moat Score (dot colored by tier)Indexed price (total-return (dividends reinvested))Rated Wide-moat that year

How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored GTBIF on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.

0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatPoint-in-time Moat Score100200Indexed price · log scale (2019 = 100)2020202120222023202420252026

Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The price path is a total-return (dividends reinvested) index built from the same data the forward returns use; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.

What followed, in the years it rated Wide

In the reconstructed history shown, GTBIF did not rate Wide-moat in any year, so there is no wide-moat track record to report. That absence is itself the honest answer — we don’t manufacture a comparison where the rating never earned one.

Agriculture context

#3 of 25 scored Agriculture companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

  1. #1CTVA Corteva, Inc.61.3Narrow moat
  2. #2CALM CAL-MAINE FOODS, INC.53.6Shallow moat
  3. #4CVAT Cavitation Technologies, Inc.46.9Shallow moat
  4. #5VFF VILLAGE FARMS INTERNATIONAL, INC.46.6Shallow moat

Compare GTBIF with its nearest peers →All Agriculture companies on the Index →

Common questions about GTBIF

Does GREEN THUMB INDUSTRIES INC. have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores GREEN THUMB INDUSTRIES INC. (GTBIF) 53.4 out of 100 — a Shallow moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 89, pricing power 80, returns on capital 7, balance-sheet safety 67, capital allocation 24.
Is GTBIF trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
The value if growth stopped today — a zero-growth baseline — is $3.54 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate and assumes 0% growth. Versus a recent price of $7.02, that is 98% above value if growth stopped today. The model also publishes a capped-growth comparison, but the zero-growth estimate is the cautious baseline. It assumes trailing owner earnings persist and is unreliable for declining businesses. This is an educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
How has GTBIF's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 16 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 53.4 out of 100 (shallow moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell GTBIF. See the disclaimer.