JAKKS Pacific, Inc.
JAKK · Consumer Discretionary · $315M mkt cap · FY2025 filings · · Shallow moat ·
Price verdict withheld — value if growth stopped today unreliable
The five investor questions
2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $621M to $571M, decreasing; diluted EPS -0.98 to 0.86, increasing. Latest-filed diluted EPS remains usable for Business Trend, but an integer share-count change lacks enough evidence to confirm a comparable EPS basis; valuation growth therefore stays at 0%.
Median gross margin 29.2% over 10y, stable.
Median ROIC 19.6%, above the 12% hurdle in 63% of years.
Net debt/EBITDA n/ax, interest coverage 30x.
Owner earnings changed +1.3%/yr over up to the ten most recent annual observations, share count n/a.
Price vs. value if growth stopped today
A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.
- $33.9M
- $33.23
- $33.23
- $27.76
- 16% below value if growth stopped today
A discount this large is often a warning rather than a bargain — the market may expect earnings to keep falling. See the revenue trend above.
How to read this
What today’s price assumes: owner earnings shrinking ~4%/yr over 5 years. The estimate assumes owner earnings stay flat (0% growth).
We solve for the constant annual change in owner earnings that would make the five-year zero-growth estimate equal today’s price. This keeps the existing model inputs and calculation unchanged; it is an expectations lens, not a forecast.
This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. JAKK revenue fell in each of the three most recent year-over-year FY comparisons, so this estimate is flagged as unreliable for this company.
Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 240% above the zero-growth estimate across 49 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.
Score records captured Oct 15, 2026.
Exactly which 50 companies?
FTNT, IBEX, META, MEDP, MSFT, GOOG, LULU, ANF, IDXX, TXRH, FHI, QLYS, FFIV, ADBE, LLY, MANH, CPRT, VEEV, RMD, GRMN, PCTY, EAT, UI, SSD, MNST, DOCS, LRCX, MCO, NTAP, NVDA, CORT, SFM, MPTI, ULTA, SN, ROL, CTAS, PAYC, IRMD, DECK, MORN, INTU, JKHY, TPR, LGCY, DAL, GWW, ISRG, MPWR, LOPE
Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF.
Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 0% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.
18 years of fundamentals
The business, in plain English
JAKKS Pacific, Inc. booked $571M of revenue in FY2025 in the Consumer Discretionary sector and kept 32.4% of it as gross profit — a moderate-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, 1.7% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.
Across the filed record, revenue shrank from $804M (FY2009) to $571M (FY2025) — about −2.1% a year compounded over 16 years.
It earned 4.8% on invested capital in the latest filed year, FY2025. Across the full 15-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was 19.1%. Over the v3 recent window (8 measurable filed years), median ROIC was 19.6%. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 85/100.
JAKK's latest filed year, FY2025, doesn't disclose total debt in a form the methodology can use, so current leverage is treated as unmeasured — never assumed to be zero.
Put together: Returns on Capital is the strongest of the five filters (85/100) and Business Trend the weakest (36/100), which is how JAKK lands at 56/100 — a Shallow moat.
This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.
Exact FY and FY-1 financing invested-capital inputs are required.. Not meaningful FY2019–2020: invested capital is negative (cash exceeds debt + equity). Exact FY and FY-1 Operating Invested Capital inputs are required.
The explained ROIC gaps have filed inputs but no meaningful positive invested-capital denominator. Other gaps mean the item is not in the filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.
Visual explainers
The filing-backed explainer service is temporarily unavailable, so no partial or guessed chart is shown.
Moat Score history
Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.
Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars
- Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)tomoat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
- Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0tomoat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
- Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0tomoat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026
Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.
Insider activity
Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”
These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.
The insider-filing service is temporarily unavailable, so no partial or guessed answer is shown for JAKK.
Consumer Discretionary context
#145 of 487 scored Consumer Discretionary companies, ranked by Moat Score.
Nearest peers by Moat Score
- #143LEEN Leopard Energy, Inc.56.8 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
- #144MLR MILLER INDUSTRIES, INC.56.5 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
- #146SAH SONIC AUTOMOTIVE, INC.56.3 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
- #147CRI CARTER’S, INC.56.3 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
Compare JAKK with its nearest peers →All Consumer Discretionary companies on the Index →
Common questions about JAKK
- Does JAKKS Pacific, Inc. have an economic moat?
- Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK) 56.3 out of 100 — a Shallow moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 36, pricing power 46, returns on capital 85, balance-sheet safety 73, capital allocation 42.
- Is JAKK trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
- The value if growth stopped today — a zero-growth baseline — is $33.23 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate and assumes 0% growth. Versus a recent price of $27.76, that is 16% below value if growth stopped today. The model also publishes a capped-growth comparison, but the zero-growth estimate is the cautious baseline. It assumes trailing owner earnings persist and is unreliable for declining businesses. This is an educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
- How has JAKK's Moat Score changed over time?
- The record logs 27 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 56.3 out of 100 (shallow moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.