Does Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. have an economic moat?

Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) 48.9 out of 100 — a Shallow moat. The four filters behind that score (each 0–100): pricing power 89, returns on capital 6, balance-sheet safety 40, capital discipline 63.

Is KDP stock trading below its intrinsic value?

Against a deliberately conservative owner-earnings model (9% discount rate, 0% assumed growth, capped at 4%), estimated intrinsic value is $13.03 per share versus a recent price of $30.91 — 137% above value. This is an educational estimate computed from primary SEC filings, not investment advice.

How has KDP's Moat Score changed over time?

The record logs 3 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 48.9 out of 100 (shallow moat). No tier changes on record yet. The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

The Moat Index

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.

KDP · Consumer Staples · $42.0B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · Shallow moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

Shallow moat

The four filters

Pricing power89

Median gross margin 54.8% over 10y, very stable.

Returns on capital6

Median ROIC 5.5%, above the 9% hurdle in 10% of years.

Balance-sheet safety40

Net debt/EBITDA 4.2x, no material interest expense disclosed.

Capital discipline63

Owner earnings +7.3%/yr, share count n/a.

Margin of safety

Above valueOn sale

137% above value

Owner earnings (normalized): $1.6B
Est. intrinsic value / share: $13.03
Recent price: $30.91
Discount to value: 137% above value

Conservative model: 9% discount rate, 0% assumed growth (capped at 4%), maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A).

19 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. booked $16.6B of revenue in FY2025 in the Consumer Staples sector and kept 54.2% of it as gross profit — a solid-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, 12.5% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.

Across the filed record, revenue grew from $5.7B (FY2008) to $16.6B (FY2025) — about 6.5% a year compounded over 17 years.

It earned 6.8% on invested capital in FY2025, with a median of 6.8% across 17 filed years. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 6/100.

The balance sheet carried $16.1B of total debt in FY2025 against $1.6B of owner earnings — roughly 10.1 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 40/100.

The share count rose 434.7% between FY2009 and FY2025 — existing owners have been diluted over the record. Capital Discipline scores it 63/100.

Put together: Pricing Power is the strongest of the four filters (89/100) and Returns on Capital the weakest (6/100), which is how KDP lands at 49/100 — a Shallow moat.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

RevenueSales, as filed$16.6B FY2025

Gross marginRevenue kept after cost of goods54.2% FY2025

Return on invested capitalOperating profit on the capital employed6.8% FY2025

Owner earningsCash an owner could take out$1.6B FY2025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in KDP’s filings for that year — the series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Moat Score history

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale48.9 / 100

Score history begins Jul 17, 2026 — the record builds from here and can’t be backfilled.

Tier changesSame-methodology crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

None yet — KDP has read Shallow moat for every logged capture since Jul 17, 2026.

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record can’t be backfilled, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Consumer Staples context

#27 of 66 scored Consumer Staples companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

#25STZ CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC.49.1 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
#26SMPL The Simply Good Foods Company49.0 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
#28SFD SMITHFIELD FOODS, INC.48.3 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
#29PPC PILGRIM’S PRIDE CORPORATION48.0 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat

Compare KDP with its nearest peers →All Consumer Staples companies on the Index →

Common questions about KDP

Does Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. have an economic moat?: Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) 48.9 out of 100 — a Shallow moat. The four filters behind that score (each 0–100): pricing power 89, returns on capital 6, balance-sheet safety 40, capital discipline 63.
Is KDP stock trading below its intrinsic value?: Against a deliberately conservative owner-earnings model (9% discount rate, 0% assumed growth, capped at 4%), estimated intrinsic value is $13.03 per share versus a recent price of $30.91 — 137% above value. This is an educational estimate computed from primary SEC filings, not investment advice.
How has KDP's Moat Score changed over time?: The record logs 3 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 48.9 out of 100 (shallow moat). No tier changes on record yet. The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

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Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell KDP. See the disclaimer.