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Moderna, Inc.

MRNA · Healthcare · $21.3B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · No moat ·

Price verdict withheld — value if growth stopped today unreliable

No moat
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The five investor questions

15

2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $18.5B to $1.9B, decreasing; diluted EPS 28.29 to -7.26, decreasing.

70

Median gross margin 78.9% over 8y, variable.

10

Median ROIC -34.7%, above the 12% hurdle in 29% of years.

55

Net cash position — no leverage risk.

24

Owner earnings changed trend unclear over up to the ten most recent annual observations.

Price vs. value if growth stopped today

A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.

Above value if growth stopped todayBelow value if growth stopped today
No price data
Not reported
Unavailable — insufficient owner-earnings data
Unavailable — insufficient growth-model data
$54.07
No price data

This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. MRNA revenue fell in each of the three most recent year-over-year FY comparisons, so this estimate is flagged as unreliable for this company.

Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 239% above the zero-growth estimate across 48 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.

Score records captured Jul 26, 2026.

Exactly which 50 companies?

FTNT, META, MEDP, IBEX, MSFT, GOOGL, LULU, ANF, IDXX, TXRH, FHI, QLYS, FFIV, ADBE, LLY, MANH, VEEV, GRMN, SSD, MNST, DOCS, MCO, CPRT, NTAP, LRCX, NVDA, CORT, SFM, MPTI, ULTA, SN, RMD, ROL, PAYC, IRMD, INTU, DECK, MORN, LGCY, DAL, GWW, ISRG, MPWR, CTAS, LOPE, MRK, CMG, FAST, BKNG, ORLY

Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF, BKNG.

Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 0% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.

11 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Moderna, Inc. booked $1.9B of revenue in FY2025 in the Healthcare sector and kept 55.3% of it as gross profit — a high-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, −145.2% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.

Across the filed record, revenue grew from $108M (FY2016) to $1.9B (FY2025) — about 37.8% a year compounded over 9 years.

It earned −36.5% on invested capital in the latest filed year, FY2025. Across the full 7-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was −34.7%. Over the v3 recent window (7 measurable filed years), median ROIC was −34.7%. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 10/100.

The balance sheet carried $590M of total debt in FY2025. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 55/100.

Put together: Pricing Power is the strongest of the five filters (70/100) and Returns on Capital the weakest (10/100), which is how MRNA lands at 35/100 — a None moat.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

FY2015–FY2025 · 11 fiscal years, normalized from MRNA’s SEC filings

Sales, as filed$1.9B FY2025
$0$10B$20B2015201920232025
Revenue kept after cost of goods55.3% FY2025
0%50%100%2015201920232025
Standard ROIC or separately labeled Operating ROICROIC −36.5% FY2025
0%100%2015201920232025
Cash an owner could take out−$2.8B FY2025
$0$10B2015201920232025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in MRNA’s filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Flagship explainer

How Moderna, Inc. makes its money

Start with a dollar of revenue and follow what the filing says remains.

revenueBranching filed flows with values and percentages directly labeled. Missing filing concepts are omitted rather than estimated.Revenue$1.9B · 100%Cost of revenue$868M · 45%Gross profit$1.1B · 55%Operating income−$3.1B · −158%Income before tax−$2.8B · −142%Income tax$54M · 3%Net income−$2.8B · −145%As of 2025-12-31 · 1 SEC filing sourceBuy Like Buffett · buylikebuffett.com

Honest partial: the filing did not provide a normalized tag for Research and development, Selling, general and administrative; those components are omitted, not plugged.

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of revenueSource
$1.9B100%
Cost of revenue$868M45%
$1.1B55%
−$3.1B−158%
Income before tax−$2.8B−142%
Income tax$54M3%
−$2.8B−145%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set
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Flagship explainer

What Moderna, Inc. owns — and owes

Moderna, Inc.'s filing tags don't support a full breakdown — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of assetsSource
Total assets$12.3B100%
Cash and equivalents$2.6B21%
$590M5%
Stockholders’ equity$8.7B70%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What drives Moderna, Inc.’s return on equity?

ROE is five filed business factors multiplied together.

DuPont return on equity factor treeReturn on equity branches into tax burden, interest burden, operating margin, asset turnover, and the equity multiplier.Return on equity−29%Tax burden102%net income ÷ pretax incomeInterest burden90%pretax ÷ operating incomeOperating margin−158%operating income ÷ revenueAsset turnover0.15×revenue ÷ average assetsEquity multiplier1.35×average assets ÷ average equityAs of 2025-12-31 · 1 SEC filing sourceBuy Like Buffett · buylikebuffett.com
DuPont source inputs
InputValueFiscal yearSource
−$2.8BFY2025
Income before tax−$2.8BFY2025
Operating income−$3.1BFY2025
$1.9BFY2025
Ending assets$12.3BFY2025
Beginning assets$14.1BFY2024
$8.7BFY2025
$10.9BFY2024
Source:
  • SEC filingFiling detailsAccession 0001682852-26-000033
· event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set
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Flagship explainer

Where Moderna, Inc.'s cash went

Moderna, Inc.’s filing does not supply enough provenance-matched cash-flow lines for a truthful flow chart — here’s what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of cash from operationsSource
Cash from operations−$1.9B−100%
Depreciation and amortization$211M11%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Curated 19-manager tier

Who reported holding Moderna, Inc.

Delayed public 13F reports for 2026-Q1—not live positions, trades, or recommendations.

0 holding0 exited0 not holding0/19 resolved19 unavailable

Named manager positions and quarter-over-quarter changes
ManagerReported positionQuarter-over-quarterFiling accession
Abrams CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Akre CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Baupost GroupUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Berkshire HathawayUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Brave Warrior AdvisorsUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Dodge & CoxUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
First EagleUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
FundsmithUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Gardner Russo & QuinnUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Gates Foundation TrustUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Mairs & PowerUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Markel / Markel-GaynerUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Oakmark / Harris AssociatesUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Pershing SquareUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Polen CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Sequoia / Ruane CunniffUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Southeastern Asset ManagementUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Tweedy, BrowneUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Yacktman Asset ManagementUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable

Position size uses shares and filed value from each manager’s 13F. Portfolio weight uses the eligible long-share filing denominator. Changes compare only with the immediately preceding calendar quarter.

Source: Filing source unavailable · event Mar 31, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026

Flagship explainer

What Moderna, Inc. insiders reported

Records still being gathered — partial as of retrieval Aug 14, 2026.

Partial coverage: the incomplete Form 4 walk cannot establish no activity, an activity date, or zero counts.

Moat Score history

16 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale34.8 / 100
0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatJul 17, 2026Jul 26, 2026

Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.

Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

  1. Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)moat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
  2. Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0moat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
  3. Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0moat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Insider activity

Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”

These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.

This machine-readable surface covers SEC ownership filings from 2003; it does not represent earlier paper-era records.

Records still being gathered — partial as of retrieval Aug 14, 2026.

Among the rows shown, A/F/M acquisition, payment or withholding, and exercise or conversion rows outnumber S sale rows (6 versus 4). The filing codes alone do not establish that every such row arose from a compensation plan.

Trailing-12-month totals and the 90-day cluster result are withheld because this issuer walk is incomplete.

InsiderShares owned afterDateFiling detail
Bancel StephaneDirector, Chief Executive OfficerExercise or conversion of derivative security (M)Table I · Acquired · Common Stock252,469$19.15$4,834,7816,440,260Aug 6, 2026
1 filed lot
  • Table I · Common Stock: 252,469 shares at $19.15 · code M · owned after 6,440,260 ·
Bancel StephaneDirector, Chief Executive OfficerExercise or conversion of derivative security (M)Table II · Disposed · Stock Option (Right to Buy)252,469—Exercise or conversion of derivative security (M)—See lot detailAug 6, 2026
2 filed lots
  • Table II · Stock Option (Right to Buy): 187,541 shares at — (Exercise or conversion of derivative security (M)) · code M · owned after 0 ·
  • Table II · Stock Option (Right to Buy): 64,928 shares at — (Exercise or conversion of derivative security (M)) · code M · owned after 0 ·
Bancel StephaneDirector, Chief Executive OfficerExercise or conversion of derivative security (M)Table I · Acquired · Common Stock499,246$19.15$9,560,5616,687,037Aug 5, 2026
1 filed lot
  • Table I · Common Stock: 499,246 shares at $19.15 · code M · owned after 6,687,037 ·
Bancel StephaneDirector, Chief Executive OfficerOpen-market or private sale (S)Table I · Disposed · Common Stock499,246$57.5168$28,715,011See lot detailAug 5, 2026
4 filed lots
  • Table I · Common Stock: 147,473 shares at $56.21 · code S · owned after 6,539,564 ·
  • Table I · Common Stock: 124,838 shares at $56.96 · code S · owned after 6,414,726 ·
  • Table I · Common Stock: 39,891 shares at $58.12 · code S · owned after 6,374,835 ·
  • Table I · Common Stock: 187,044 shares at $58.79 · code S · owned after 6,187,791 ·
Bancel StephaneDirector, Chief Executive OfficerExercise or conversion of derivative security (M)Table II · Disposed · Stock Option (Right to Buy)499,246—Exercise or conversion of derivative security (M)—See lot detailAug 5, 2026
2 filed lots
  • Table II · Stock Option (Right to Buy): 370,853 shares at — (Exercise or conversion of derivative security (M)) · code M · owned after 187,541 ·
  • Table II · Stock Option (Right to Buy): 128,393 shares at — (Exercise or conversion of derivative security (M)) · code M · owned after 64,928 ·

Source-event as of . Retrieved .

Track record

How Moderna, Inc.’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.

Point-in-time scores 2019–2025, one methodology version · reconstructed from filings on file each Dec 31 — never with hindsight

Point-in-time Moat Score (dot colored by tier)Indexed price (total-return (dividends reinvested))Rated Wide-moat that year

How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored MRNA on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.

0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatPoint-in-time Moat Score1002005001,000Indexed price · log scale (2019 = 100)20192021202320252026

Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The price path is a total-return (dividends reinvested) index built from the same data the forward returns use; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.

What followed, in the years it rated Wide

In the reconstructed history shown, MRNA did not rate Wide-moat in any year, so there is no wide-moat track record to report. That absence is itself the honest answer — we don’t manufacture a comparison where the rating never earned one.

Healthcare context

#471 of 728 scored Healthcare companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

  1. #469HROW Harrow, Inc.34.9No moat
  2. #470QUCY Quantum Cyber N.V.34.9No moat
  3. #472DNLI Denali Therapeutics Inc.34.8No moat
  4. #473BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc.34.8No moat

Compare MRNA with its nearest peers →All Healthcare companies on the Index →

Common questions about MRNA

Does Moderna, Inc. have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) 34.8 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 15, pricing power 70, returns on capital 10, balance-sheet safety 55, capital allocation 24.
How has MRNA's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 16 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 34.8 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell MRNA. See the disclaimer.