2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $1.1B to $1.1B, decreasing; diluted EPS -23.44 to 2.58, increasing.
76
Median gross margin 81.9% over 6y, variable.
—
Not enough years of ROIC data to score returns on capital.
73
Net debt/EBITDA n/ax, interest coverage 20x.
44
Owner earnings changed trend unclear over up to the ten most recent annual observations, share count n/a.
The returnsOnCapital component abstained: Not enough years of ROIC data to score returns on capital. The other four 20% weights were renormalized over the scored 80%.
Price vs. value if growth stopped today
A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.
Above value if growth stopped todayBelow value if growth stopped today
No price data
Not reported
Unavailable — insufficient owner-earnings data
Unavailable — insufficient growth-model data
$10.18
No price data
This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. The recent FY revenue series does not trigger the three-consecutive-declines flag.
Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 238% above the zero-growth estimate across 49 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.
Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF.
Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 0% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.
18 years of fundamentals
The business, in plain English
NOVAVAX INC booked $1.1B of revenue in FY2025 in the Healthcare sector and kept 93.5% of it as gross profit — a high-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, 39.2% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.
Across the filed record, revenue grew from $343000 (FY2010) to $1.1B (FY2025) — about 71.5% a year compounded over 15 years.
ROIC is not available for the latest filed year, FY2025. Across the full 8-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was −54.3%.
NVAX's latest filed year, FY2025, doesn't disclose total debt in a form the methodology can use, so current leverage is treated as unmeasured — never assumed to be zero.
This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.
FY2008–FY2025 · 18 fiscal years, normalized from NVAX’s SEC filings
Sales, as filed$1.1B FY2025Revenue kept after cost of goods93.5% FY2025Standard ROIC or separately labeled Operating ROICStandard ROIC −79.0% FY2015
Exact FY and FY-1 financing invested-capital inputs are required.
Cash an owner could take out$440M FY2025
The explained ROIC gaps have filed inputs but no meaningful positive invested-capital denominator. Other gaps mean the item is not in the filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.
Flagship explainer
How NOVAVAX INC makes its money
Start with a dollar of revenue and follow what the filing says remains.
Honest partial: the filing did not provide a normalized tag for Research and development, Selling, general and administrative; those components are omitted, not plugged.
Position size uses shares and filed value from each manager’s 13F. Portfolio weight uses the eligible long-share filing denominator. Changes compare only with the immediately preceding calendar quarter.
Records still being gathered — partial as of retrieval Sep 5, 2026.
Partial coverage: the incomplete Form 4 walk cannot establish no activity, an activity date, or zero counts.
Moat Score history
17 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten
Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale61.6 / 100
Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.
Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars
Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.
Insider activity
Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”
These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.
This machine-readable surface covers SEC ownership filings from 2003; it does not represent earlier paper-era records.
Records still being gathered — partial as of retrieval Sep 5, 2026.
63 filings were skipped because the SEC primary document returned 404; the omission is disclosed and aggregates are withheld.
Trailing-12-month totals and the 90-day cluster result are withheld because this issuer walk is incomplete.
No reported Form 4 rows were captured for NVAX; the incomplete walk cannot establish zero activity, zero counts, or a negative cluster result.
A filing source-event date will appear when a Form 4 row is captured.
Retrieved .
Track record
How NOVAVAX INC’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.
Point-in-time scores 2011–2025, one methodology version · reconstructed from filings on file each Dec 31 — never with hindsight
Point-in-time Moat Score (dot colored by tier)Indexed price (total-return (dividends reinvested))Rated Wide-moat that year
How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored NVAX on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.
Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The price path is a total-return (dividends reinvested) index built from the same data the forward returns use; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.
What followed, in the years it rated Wide
In the reconstructed history shown, NVAX did not rate Wide-moat in any year, so there is no wide-moat track record to report. That absence is itself the honest answer — we don’t manufacture a comparison where the rating never earned one.
Healthcare context
#98 of 708 scored Healthcare companies, ranked by Moat Score.
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores NOVAVAX INC (NVAX) 61.6 out of 100 — a Narrow moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 54, pricing power 76, returns on capital not measurable from the filings, balance-sheet safety 73, capital allocation 44.
How has NVAX's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 17 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 61.6 out of 100 (narrow moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.
Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell NVAX. See the disclaimer.