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TARGET CORPORATION

TGT · Consumer Discretionary · $62.0B mkt cap · FY2026 filings · Shallow moat ·

Price verdict withheld — value if growth stopped today unreliable

Shallow moat
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The five investor questions

39

2022–2026 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $106.0B to $104.8B, decreasing; diluted EPS 14.10 to 8.13, decreasing.

49

Median gross margin 28.8% over 10y, very stable.

86

Median ROIC 16.7%, above the 12% hurdle in 100% of years.

60

Net debt/EBITDA 1.3x, interest coverage 11x.

46

Owner earnings changed -3.2%/yr over up to the ten most recent annual observations.

Price vs. value if growth stopped today

A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.

Above value if growth stopped todayBelow value if growth stopped today
35% above value if growth stopped today
$4.1B
$101.53
$101.53
$136.85
35% above value if growth stopped today

What today’s price assumes: owner earnings growing ~6%/yr over 5 years. The zero-growth estimate assumes owner earnings stay flat (0% growth).

How to read this

We solve for the constant annual change in owner earnings that would make the five-year zero-growth estimate equal today’s price. This keeps the existing model inputs and calculation unchanged; it is an expectations lens, not a forecast.

This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. TGT revenue fell in each of the three most recent year-over-year FY comparisons, so this estimate is flagged as unreliable for this company.

Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 239% above the zero-growth estimate across 48 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.

Score records captured Jul 26, 2026.

Exactly which 50 companies?

FTNT, META, MEDP, IBEX, MSFT, GOOGL, LULU, ANF, IDXX, TXRH, FHI, QLYS, FFIV, ADBE, LLY, MANH, VEEV, GRMN, SSD, MNST, DOCS, MCO, CPRT, NTAP, LRCX, NVDA, CORT, SFM, MPTI, ULTA, SN, RMD, ROL, PAYC, IRMD, INTU, DECK, MORN, LGCY, DAL, GWW, ISRG, MPWR, CTAS, LOPE, MRK, CMG, FAST, BKNG, ORLY

Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF, BKNG.

Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 0% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.

20 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

TARGET CORPORATION booked $104.8B of revenue in FY2026 in the Consumer Discretionary sector and kept 27.9% of it as gross profit — a moderate-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, 3.5% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.

Across the filed record, revenue grew from $63.4B (FY2008) to $104.8B (FY2026) — about 2.8% a year compounded over 18 years.

It earned 14.7% on invested capital in the latest filed year, FY2026. Across the full 14-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was 16.1%. Over the v3 recent window (10 measurable filed years), median ROIC was 16.7%. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 86/100.

The balance sheet carried $16.5B of total debt in FY2026 against $3.7B of owner earnings — roughly 4.4 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 60/100.

Put together: Returns on Capital is the strongest of the five filters (86/100) and Business Trend the weakest (39/100), which is how TGT lands at 56/100 — a Shallow moat.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

FY2007–FY2026 · 20 fiscal years, normalized from TGT’s SEC filings

Sales, as filed$104.8B FY2026
$0$50B$100B2007201420212026
Revenue kept after cost of goods27.9% FY2026
0%20%2007201420212026
Standard ROIC or separately labeled Operating ROICROIC 14.7% FY2026
0%20%2007201420212026
Cash an owner could take out$3.7B FY2026
$0$5B2007201420212026

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in TGT’s filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Flagship explainer

How TARGET CORPORATION makes its money

Start with a dollar of revenue and follow what the filing says remains.

revenueBranching filed flows with values and percentages directly labeled. Missing filing concepts are omitted rather than estimated.Revenue$104.8B · 100%Cost of revenue$75.5B · 72%Gross profit$29.3B · 28%Operating income$5.1B · 5%Income before tax$4.8B · 5%Income tax$1.1B · 1%Net income$3.7B · 4%As of 2026-01-31 · 1 SEC filing sourceBuy Like Buffett · buylikebuffett.com

Honest partial: the filing did not provide a normalized tag for Research and development, Selling, general and administrative; those components are omitted, not plugged.

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of revenueSource
$104.8B100%
Cost of revenue$75.5B72%
$29.3B28%
$5.1B5%
Income before tax$4.8B5%
Income tax$1.1B1%
$3.7B4%
Source: · event Jan 31, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set
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Flagship explainer

What TARGET CORPORATION owns — and owes

TARGET CORPORATION's filing tags don't support a full breakdown — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of assetsSource
Total assets$59.5B100%
Cash and equivalents$5.5B9%
$16.5B28%
Stockholders’ equity$16.2B27%
Source: · event Jan 31, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What drives TARGET CORPORATION’s return on equity?

ROE is five filed business factors multiplied together.

DuPont return on equity factor treeReturn on equity branches into tax burden, interest burden, operating margin, asset turnover, and the equity multiplier.Return on equity24%Tax burden78%net income ÷ pretax incomeInterest burden93%pretax ÷ operating incomeOperating margin5%operating income ÷ revenueAsset turnover1.79×revenue ÷ average assetsEquity multiplier3.80×average assets ÷ average equityAs of 2026-01-31 · 1 SEC filing sourceBuy Like Buffett · buylikebuffett.com
DuPont source inputs
InputValueFiscal yearSource
$3.7BFY2026
Income before tax$4.8BFY2026
Operating income$5.1BFY2026
$104.8BFY2026
Ending assets$59.5BFY2026
Beginning assets$57.8BFY2025
$16.2BFY2026
$14.7BFY2025
Source:
  • SEC filingFiling detailsAccession 0000027419-26-000016
· event Jan 31, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set
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Flagship explainer

Where TARGET CORPORATION's cash went

TARGET CORPORATION’s filing does not supply enough provenance-matched cash-flow lines for a truthful flow chart — here’s what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of cash from operationsSource
Cash from operations$6.6B100%
Depreciation and amortization$3.1B48%
Source: · event Jan 31, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Curated 19-manager tier

Who reported holding TARGET CORPORATION

Delayed public 13F reports for 2026-Q1—not live positions, trades, or recommendations.

2 holding1 exited16 not holding19/19 resolved

Named manager positions and quarter-over-quarter changes
ManagerReported positionQuarter-over-quarterFiling accession
Dodge & Cox96,664 shares$11.7M · 0% of eligible reported 13FTrimmed · -1,465 shares (−1%)
Mairs & Power168,879 shares$20.5M · 0% of eligible reported 13FTrimmed · -25,879 shares (−13%)
Markel / Markel-GaynerExited · no position reportedPrior: 133,000 sharesExited · -133,000 shares (−100%)
Abrams CapitalNo position reportedNo position reported
Akre CapitalNo position reportedNo position reported
Baupost GroupNo position reportedNo position reported
Berkshire HathawayNo position reportedNo position reported
Brave Warrior AdvisorsNo position reportedNo position reported
First EagleNo position reportedNo position reported
FundsmithNo position reportedNo position reported
Gardner Russo & QuinnNo position reportedNo position reported
Gates Foundation TrustNo position reportedNo position reported
Oakmark / Harris AssociatesNo position reportedNo position reported
Pershing SquareNo position reportedNo position reported
Polen CapitalNo position reportedNo position reported
Sequoia / Ruane CunniffNo position reportedNo position reported
Southeastern Asset ManagementNo position reportedNo position reported
Tweedy, BrowneNo position reportedNo position reported
Yacktman Asset ManagementNo position reportedNo position reported

Position size uses shares and filed value from each manager’s 13F. Portfolio weight uses the eligible long-share filing denominator. Changes compare only with the immediately preceding calendar quarter.

Source:
38 SEC filings
  1. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000813917-26-000022 · filed Feb 17, 2026
  2. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0000813917-26-000038 · filed May 15, 2026
  3. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000860643-26-000001 · filed Feb 12, 2026
  4. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0000860643-26-000003 · filed May 13, 2026
  5. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000905567-26-000001 · filed Feb 3, 2026
  6. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0000905567-26-000002 · filed May 1, 2026
  7. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0000919574-26-000775 · filed Feb 13, 2026
  8. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0000919574-26-003132 · filed May 15, 2026
  9. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001061768-26-000005 · filed Feb 13, 2026
  10. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001061768-26-000007 · filed May 14, 2026
  11. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001096343-26-000011 · filed Feb 6, 2026
  12. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001096343-26-000044 · filed May 1, 2026
  13. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001104659-26-016458 · filed Feb 17, 2026
  14. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001104659-26-062592 · filed May 15, 2026
  15. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001112520-26-000008 · filed Feb 13, 2026
  16. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001112520-26-000009 · filed May 14, 2026
  17. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-000654 · filed Feb 12, 2026
  18. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-000791 · filed Feb 13, 2026
  19. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-001057 · filed Feb 17, 2026
  20. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-001068 · filed Feb 17, 2026
  21. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-001091 · filed Feb 17, 2026
  22. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-001819 · filed May 14, 2026
  23. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-001911 · filed May 14, 2026
  24. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-001966 · filed May 14, 2026
  25. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-002294 · filed May 15, 2026
  26. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001172661-26-002336 · filed May 15, 2026
  27. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-033986 · filed Feb 3, 2026
  28. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-050636 · filed Feb 13, 2026
  29. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-054580 · filed Feb 17, 2026
  30. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-208439 · filed May 6, 2026
  31. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-223352 · filed May 14, 2026
  32. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001193125-26-226661 · filed May 15, 2026
  33. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001325447-26-000004 · filed Feb 4, 2026
  34. 13F-HR/A · Q1 2026 · Amendment RESTATEMENTFiling detailsAccession 0001325447-26-000018 · filed May 14, 2026
  35. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001398344-26-003084 · filed Feb 13, 2026
  36. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001398344-26-009296 · filed May 15, 2026
  37. 13F-HR · Q4 2025Filing detailsAccession 0001569205-26-000002 · filed Feb 17, 2026
  38. 13F-HR · Q1 2026Filing detailsAccession 0001569205-26-000005 · filed May 15, 2026
· event Mar 31, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026

Flagship explainer

What TARGET CORPORATION insiders reported

Insider activity is unavailable from the source; no zero-activity claim is shown.

Unavailable: Form 4 activity could not be retrieved for this rendering.

Moat Score history

16 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale56.1 / 100
0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatJul 17, 2026Jul 26, 2026

Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.

Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

  1. Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)moat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
  2. Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0moat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
  3. Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0moat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Insider activity

Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”

These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.

The insider-filing service is temporarily unavailable, so no partial or guessed answer is shown for TGT.

Track record

How TARGET CORPORATION’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.

Point-in-time scores 2011–2025, one methodology version · reconstructed from filings on file each Dec 31 — never with hindsight

Point-in-time Moat Score (dot colored by tier)Indexed price (total-return (dividends reinvested))Rated Wide-moat that year

How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored TGT on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.

0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatPoint-in-time Moat Score100200500Indexed price · log scale (2012 = 100)201120142017202020232026

Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The price path is a total-return (dividends reinvested) index built from the same data the forward returns use; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.

What followed, in the years it rated Wide

In the 1 year TGT rated Wide-moat (2022), the median forward total return that followed — measured only after each year’s filings were public — was:

  • 1 year −3% vs the S&P 500’s 24% (price basis) · median over 1 year
  • 3 years −27% vs the S&P 500’s 79% (price basis) · median over 1 year
  • 5 years None of the 1 year it rated Wide has a fully elapsed 5-year window with a benchmark to compare against yet.

These are medians computed from the data, not a claim about any one year. The company figures are total returns (dividends reinvested); the S&P 500 is the price-only ^GSPC index, which excludes dividends and so understates the index — the gap flatters the company. A quality rating is not a return forecast, and past returns don’t predict future ones. Educational only, not investment advice.

Consumer Discretionary context

#149 of 487 scored Consumer Discretionary companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

  1. #147CRI Carter's, Inc.56.3Shallow moat
  2. #148BLMN BLOOMIN’ BRANDS, INC.56.3Shallow moat
  3. #150EZPW EZCORP, INC.55.9Shallow moat
  4. #151QSR RESTAURANT BRANDS INTERNATIONAL INC.55.9Shallow moat

Compare TGT with its nearest peers →All Consumer Discretionary companies on the Index →

Common questions about TGT

Does TARGET CORPORATION have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2026 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores TARGET CORPORATION (TGT) 56.1 out of 100 — a Shallow moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 39, pricing power 49, returns on capital 86, balance-sheet safety 60, capital allocation 46.
Is TGT trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
The value if growth stopped today — a zero-growth baseline — is $101.53 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate and assumes 0% growth. Versus a recent price of $136.85, that is 35% above value if growth stopped today. The model also publishes a capped-growth comparison, but the zero-growth estimate is the cautious baseline. It assumes trailing owner earnings persist and is unreliable for declining businesses. This is an educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
How has TGT's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 16 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 56.1 out of 100 (shallow moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell TGT. See the disclaimer.