AAR CORP.
AIR · Consumer Discretionary · $4.5B mkt cap · FY2026 filings · · Shallow moat ·
Doesn't clear the bar
The five investor questions
2022–2026 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $1.8B to $3.3B, increasing; diluted EPS 2.17 to 4.86, increasing.
Median gross margin 17.0% over 10y, stable.
Not enough years of ROIC data to score returns on capital.
Net debt/EBITDA n/ax, interest coverage 4x.
Owner earnings changed +14.3%/yr over up to the ten most recent annual observations.
The returnsOnCapital component abstained: Not enough years of ROIC data to score returns on capital. The other four 20% weights were renormalized over the scored 80%.
Price vs. value if growth stopped today
A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.
- $90.2M
- $25.12
- $40.70
- $112.77
- 349% above value if growth stopped today
What today’s price assumes: owner earnings growing ~35%/yr over 5 years. The zero-growth estimate assumes owner earnings stay flat (0% growth).
How to read this
We solve for the constant annual change in owner earnings that would make the five-year zero-growth estimate equal today’s price. This keeps the existing model inputs and calculation unchanged; it is an expectations lens, not a forecast.
This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. The recent FY revenue series does not trigger the three-consecutive-declines flag.
Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 227% above the zero-growth estimate across 49 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.
Score records captured Sep 19, 2026.
Exactly which 50 companies?
FTNT, IBEX, META, MEDP, MSFT, GOOG, LULU, ANF, IDXX, TXRH, FHI, QLYS, FFIV, ADBE, LLY, MANH, VEEV, RMD, GRMN, PCTY, EAT, UI, SSD, MNST, DOCS, LRCX, MCO, CPRT, NTAP, NVDA, CORT, SFM, MPTI, ULTA, SN, ROL, CTAS, PAYC, IRMD, DECK, MORN, INTU, JKHY, TPR, LGCY, DAL, GWW, ISRG, MPWR, LOPE
Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF.
Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 4% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.
19 years of fundamentals
The business, in plain English
AAR CORP. booked $3.3B of revenue in FY2026 in the Consumer Discretionary sector and kept 18.8% of it as gross profit — a moderate-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, 5.7% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.
Across the filed record, revenue grew from $1.4B (FY2009) to $3.3B (FY2026) — about 5.3% a year compounded over 17 years.
AIR's latest filed year, FY2026, doesn't disclose total debt in a form the methodology can use, so current leverage is treated as unmeasured — never assumed to be zero.
This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.
Exact FY and FY-1 financing invested-capital inputs are required.. Current-year EBIT, tax expense, and non-zero pretax income are required for standard ROIC.
Exact FY and FY-1 financing invested-capital inputs are required.. Current-year EBIT, tax expense, and non-zero pretax income are required for standard ROIC.
The explained ROIC gaps have filed inputs but no meaningful positive invested-capital denominator. Other gaps mean the item is not in the filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.
Visual explainers
The filing-backed explainer service is temporarily unavailable, so no partial or guessed chart is shown.
Moat Score history
Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars
- Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)tomoat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
- Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0tomoat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
- Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0tomoat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026
Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.
Insider activity
Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”
These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.
This machine-readable surface covers SEC ownership filings from 2003; it does not represent earlier paper-era records.
Records still being gathered — partial as of retrieval Sep 23, 2026.
795 filings were skipped because the SEC primary document returned 404; the omission is disclosed and aggregates are withheld.
Among the rows shown, A/F/M acquisition, payment or withholding, and exercise or conversion rows outnumber S sale rows (10 versus 0). The filing codes alone do not establish that every such row arose from a compensation plan.
Trailing-12-month totals and the 90-day cluster result are withheld because this issuer walk is incomplete.
| Insider | Shares owned after | Date | Filing detail | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WALFISH MARC JAYDirector | Grant, award, or other acquisition (A)Table II · Acquired · Phantom Stock | 300 | $129.29 | $38,787 | 54,373 | Aug 31, 2026 | 1 filed lot
|
| LEDUC ROBERT FDirector | Grant, award, or other acquisition (A)Table II · Acquired · Phantom Stock | 122 | $129.29 | $15,773 | 5,462 | Aug 31, 2026 | 1 filed lot
|
| Pachapa EricVP-CAO & Controller | Payment of exercise price or tax liability (F)Table I · Disposed · Common Stock | 3,979 | $140.04 | $557,219 | See lot detail | Jul 31, 2026 | 2 filed lots
|
| Jessup Christopher A.Senior Vice President-CCO | Payment of exercise price or tax liability (F)Table I · Disposed · Common Stock | 8,392 | $140.04 | $1,175,216 | See lot detail | Jul 31, 2026 | 2 filed lots
|
| Garascia Jessica A.Senior VP, GC, CAO & Secretary | Payment of exercise price or tax liability (F)Table I · Disposed · Common Stock | 6,663 | $140.04 | $933,087 | See lot detail | Jul 31, 2026 | 2 filed lots
|
| Holmes John McClain IIIDirector, Chairman, President & CEO | Payment of exercise price or tax liability (F)Table I · Disposed · Common Stock | 40,363 | $140.04 | $5,652,435 | See lot detail | Jul 31, 2026 | 2 filed lots
|
Source-event as of . Retrieved .
Track record
How AAR CORP.’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.
How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored AIR on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.
Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The price path is a total-return (dividends reinvested) index built from the same data the forward returns use; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.
What followed, in the years it rated Wide
In the reconstructed history shown, AIR did not rate Wide-moat in any year, so there is no wide-moat track record to report. That absence is itself the honest answer — we don’t manufacture a comparison where the rating never earned one.
Consumer Discretionary context
#186 of 486 scored Consumer Discretionary companies, ranked by Moat Score.
Nearest peers by Moat Score
- #184QSP RESTAURANT BRANDS INTERNATIONAL LIMITED PARTNERSHIP52.2 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
- #185WW WW INTERNATIONAL, INC.52.1 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
- #187M Macy's, Inc.51.8 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
- #188IVDN INNOVATIVE DESIGNS, INC.51.8 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
Compare AIR with its nearest peers →All Consumer Discretionary companies on the Index →
Common questions about AIR
- Does AAR CORP. have an economic moat?
- Based on its FY2026 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores AAR CORP. (AIR) 52.0 out of 100 — a Shallow moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 90, pricing power 24, returns on capital not measurable from the filings, balance-sheet safety 34, capital allocation 60.
- Is AIR trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
- The value if growth stopped today — a zero-growth baseline — is $25.12 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate and assumes 0% growth. Versus a recent price of $112.77, that is 349% above value if growth stopped today. The model also publishes a capped-growth comparison, but the zero-growth estimate is the cautious baseline. It assumes trailing owner earnings persist and is unreliable for declining businesses. This is an educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
- How has AIR's Moat Score changed over time?
- The record logs 19 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 52.0 out of 100 (shallow moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.