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FORWARD AIR CORP

FWRD · Industrials · $478M mkt cap · FY2025 filings · Shallow moat ·

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Shallow moat
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The five investor questions

55

2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $1.4B to $2.5B, increasing; diluted EPS 3.85 to -3.51, decreasing.

85

Median gross margin 51.8% over 5y, very stable.

50

Median ROIC 12.4%, above the 12% hurdle in 50% of years.

0

Net debt/EBITDA 8.4x, interest coverage 0x.

12

Owner earnings changed -6.0%/yr over up to the ten most recent annual observations.

Price vs. value if growth stopped today

A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.

Above value if growth stopped todayBelow value if growth stopped today
59% below value if growth stopped today
$106M
$37.55
$37.55
$15.25
59% below value if growth stopped today

A discount this large is often a warning rather than a bargain — the market may expect earnings to keep falling. See the revenue trend above.

How to read this

What today’s price assumes: owner earnings shrinking ~16%/yr over 5 years. The estimate assumes owner earnings stay flat (0% growth).

We solve for the constant annual change in owner earnings that would make the five-year zero-growth estimate equal today’s price. This keeps the existing model inputs and calculation unchanged; it is an expectations lens, not a forecast.

This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. The recent FY revenue series does not trigger the three-consecutive-declines flag.

Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 0% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.

19 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Across the filed record, revenue grew from $474M (FY2008) to $2.5B (FY2025) — about 10.3% a year compounded over 17 years.

It earned 1.7% on invested capital in the latest filed year, FY2025. Across the full 18-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was 15.0%. Over the v3 recent window (10 measurable filed years), median ROIC was 12.4%. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 50/100.

The balance sheet carried $1.7B of total debt in FY2025 against $15.7M of owner earnings — roughly 107.3 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 0/100.

Put together: Pricing Power is the strongest of the five filters (85/100) and Balance-Sheet Safety the weakest (0/100), which is how FWRD lands at 40/100 — a Shallow moat.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

FY2007–FY2025 · 19 fiscal years, normalized from FWRD’s SEC filings

Sales, as filed$2.5B FY2025
$0$1B$2B2007201320192025
Revenue kept after cost of goods48.7% FY2020
0%20%40%2007201320192025
Standard ROIC or separately labeled Operating ROICROIC 1.7% FY2025
−50%0%2007201320192025
Cash an owner could take out$15.7M FY2025
−$500M$02007201320192025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in FWRD’s filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Flagship explainer

How FORWARD AIR CORP makes its money

FORWARD AIR CORP's filing does not supply enough comparable lines for a truthful flow chart — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of revenueSource
$2.5B100%
$36.4M1%
Income before tax−$147M−6%
Income tax−$5.5M−0%
−$108M−4%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What FORWARD AIR CORP owns — and owes

FORWARD AIR CORP's filing tags don't support a full breakdown — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of assetsSource
Total assets$2.7B100%
Cash and equivalents$106M4%
$1.7B62%
Stockholders’ equity$113M4%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What drives FORWARD AIR CORP’s return on equity?

ROE is five filed business factors multiplied together.

DuPont return on equity factor treeReturn on equity branches into tax burden, interest burden, operating margin, asset turnover, and the equity multiplier.Return on equity−68%Tax burden73%net income ÷ pretax incomeInterest burden−404%pretax ÷ operating incomeOperating margin1%operating income ÷ revenueAsset turnover0.90×revenue ÷ average assetsEquity multiplier17.52×average assets ÷ average equityAs of 2025-12-31 · 1 SEC filing sourceBuy Like Buffett · buylikebuffett.com
DuPont source inputs
InputValueFiscal yearSource
−$108MFY2025
Income before tax−$147MFY2025
Operating income$36.4MFY2025
$2.5BFY2025
Ending assets$2.7BFY2025
Beginning assets$2.8BFY2024
$113MFY2025
$202MFY2024
Source:
  • SEC filingFiling detailsAccession 0001628280-26-016793
· event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set
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Flagship explainer

Where FORWARD AIR CORP's cash went

FORWARD AIR CORP’s filing does not supply enough provenance-matched cash-flow lines for a truthful flow chart — here’s what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of cash from operationsSource
Cash from operations$44.4M100%
Depreciation and amortization$153M344%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Curated 19-manager tier

Who reported holding FORWARD AIR CORP

Delayed public 13F reports for 2026-Q1—not live positions, trades, or recommendations.

0 holding0 exited0 not holding0/19 resolved19 unavailable

Named manager positions and quarter-over-quarter changes
ManagerReported positionQuarter-over-quarterFiling accession
Abrams CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Akre CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Baupost GroupUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Berkshire HathawayUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Brave Warrior AdvisorsUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Dodge & CoxUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
First EagleUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
FundsmithUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Gardner Russo & QuinnUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Gates Foundation TrustUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Mairs & PowerUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Markel / Markel-GaynerUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Oakmark / Harris AssociatesUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Pershing SquareUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Polen CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Sequoia / Ruane CunniffUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Southeastern Asset ManagementUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Tweedy, BrowneUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Yacktman Asset ManagementUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable

Position size uses shares and filed value from each manager’s 13F. Portfolio weight uses the eligible long-share filing denominator. Changes compare only with the immediately preceding calendar quarter.

Source: Filing source unavailable · event Mar 31, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026

Flagship explainer

What FORWARD AIR CORP insiders reported

Insider activity is unavailable from the source; no zero-activity claim is shown.

Unavailable: Form 4 activity could not be retrieved for this rendering.

Moat Score history

15 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale40.3 / 100
0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatJul 17, 2026Jul 26, 2026

Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.

Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

  1. Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)moat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
  2. Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0moat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
  3. Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0moat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Insider activity

Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”

These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.

The insider-filing service is temporarily unavailable, so no partial or guessed answer is shown for FWRD.

Industrials context

#235 of 428 scored Industrials companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

  1. #233SLGN SILGAN HOLDINGS INC40.6Shallow moat
  2. #234GOLD Gold.com, Inc.40.4Shallow moat
  3. #236XPO XPO, Inc.40.3Shallow moat
  4. #237AEBI AEBI SCHMIDT HOLDING AG39.9No moat

Compare FWRD with its nearest peers →All Industrials companies on the Index →

Common questions about FWRD

Does FORWARD AIR CORP have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) 40.3 out of 100 — a Shallow moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 55, pricing power 85, returns on capital 50, balance-sheet safety 0, capital allocation 12.
Is FWRD trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
The value if growth stopped today — a zero-growth baseline — is $37.55 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate and assumes 0% growth. Versus a recent price of $15.25, that is 59% below value if growth stopped today. The model also publishes a capped-growth comparison, but the zero-growth estimate is the cautious baseline. It assumes trailing owner earnings persist and is unreliable for declining businesses. This is an educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
How has FWRD's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 15 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 40.3 out of 100 (shallow moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell FWRD. See the disclaimer.