Does XPO, Inc. have an economic moat?

Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores XPO, Inc. (XPO) 38.0 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The four filters behind that score (each 0–100): pricing power 48, returns on capital 18, balance-sheet safety 21, capital discipline 69.

Is XPO stock trading below its intrinsic value?

Against a deliberately conservative owner-earnings model (9% discount rate, 0% assumed growth, capped at 4%), estimated intrinsic value is $36.75 per share versus a recent price of $215.02 — 485% above value. This is an educational estimate computed from primary SEC filings, not investment advice.

How has XPO's Moat Score changed over time?

The record logs 3 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 38.0 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

The Moat Index

XPO, Inc.

XPO · Industrials · $25.2B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · No moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

No moat

The four filters

Pricing power48

Median gross margin 46.0% over 5y, variable.

Returns on capital18

Median ROIC 7.5%, above the 9% hurdle in 20% of years.

Balance-sheet safety21

Net debt/EBITDA 2.6x, interest coverage 3x.

Capital discipline69

Owner earnings +18.4%/yr, share count growing (dilution).

Margin of safety

Above valueOn sale

485% above value

Owner earnings (normalized): $387.0M
Est. intrinsic value / share: $36.75
Recent price: $215.02
Discount to value: 485% above value

Conservative model: 9% discount rate, 0% assumed growth (capped at 4%), maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A).

18 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Across the filed record, revenue grew from $100.1M (FY2009) to $8.2B (FY2025) — about 31.7% a year compounded over 16 years.

It earned 9.9% on invested capital in FY2025, with a median of 6.3% across 17 filed years. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 18/100.

The balance sheet carried $3.3B of total debt in FY2025 against $316.0M of owner earnings — roughly 10.3 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 21/100.

The share count rose 1339.7% between FY2010 and FY2025 — existing owners have been diluted over the record. Capital Discipline scores it 69/100.

Put together: Capital Discipline is the strongest of the four filters (69/100) and Returns on Capital the weakest (18/100), which is how XPO lands at 38/100 — a None moat.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

RevenueSales, as filed$8.2B FY2025

Gross marginRevenue kept after cost of goods−27.3% FY2020

Return on invested capitalOperating profit on the capital employed9.9% FY2025

Owner earningsCash an owner could take out$316.0M FY2025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in XPO’s filings for that year — the series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Moat Score history

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale38.0 / 100

Score history begins Jul 17, 2026 — the record builds from here and can’t be backfilled.

Tier changesSame-methodology crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

None yet — XPO has read No moat for every logged capture since Jul 17, 2026.

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record can’t be backfilled, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Industrials context

#161 of 309 scored Industrials companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

#159AZZ AZZ Inc.38.2 out of 100, No moatNo moat
#160BWEN BROADWIND, INC.38.1 out of 100, No moatNo moat
#162GHM GRAHAM CORPORATION37.9 out of 100, No moatNo moat
#163EML THE EASTERN COMPANY37.8 out of 100, No moatNo moat

Compare XPO with its nearest peers →All Industrials companies on the Index →

Common questions about XPO

Does XPO, Inc. have an economic moat?: Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores XPO, Inc. (XPO) 38.0 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The four filters behind that score (each 0–100): pricing power 48, returns on capital 18, balance-sheet safety 21, capital discipline 69.
Is XPO stock trading below its intrinsic value?: Against a deliberately conservative owner-earnings model (9% discount rate, 0% assumed growth, capped at 4%), estimated intrinsic value is $36.75 per share versus a recent price of $215.02 — 485% above value. This is an educational estimate computed from primary SEC filings, not investment advice.
How has XPO's Moat Score changed over time?: The record logs 3 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 38.0 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

Embed this score on your site

One iframe, no script. The badge shows XPO’s live Moat Score, updates itself as new filings are scored, and links back here. How it works.

<iframe
  src="https://buylikebuffett.com/embed/XPO"
  width="340" height="150" style="border:0"
  title="XPO Moat Score — The Moat Index"
  loading="lazy"></iframe>

Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell XPO. See the disclaimer.