Does Green Plains Inc. have an economic moat?

Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) 25.8 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The four filters behind that score (each 0–100): pricing power 70, returns on capital 0, balance-sheet safety 0, capital discipline 24.

How has GPRE's Moat Score changed over time?

The record logs 3 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 25.8 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

The Moat Index

Green Plains Inc.

GPRE · Materials · $1.3B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · No moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

No moat

The four filters

Pricing power70

Median gross margin 132.2% over 6y, variable.

Returns on capital0

Median ROIC -3.7%, above the 9% hurdle in 0% of years.

Balance-sheet safety0

Net debt/EBITDA 7.0x, interest coverage -1x.

Capital discipline24

Owner earnings trend unclear, share count growing (dilution).

Margin of safety

Above valueOn sale

No price data

Owner earnings (normalized): —
Est. intrinsic value / share: —
Recent price: $19.23
Discount to value: No price data

Conservative model: 9% discount rate, 0% assumed growth (capped at 4%), maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A).

18 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Green Plains Inc. booked $189.0M of revenue in FY2025 in the Materials sector and kept 72.5% of it as gross profit — a high-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, −64.2% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.

Across the filed record, revenue shrank from $1.3B (FY2009) to $189.0M (FY2025) — about −11.4% a year compounded over 16 years.

It earned −5.4% on invested capital in FY2025, with a median of 4.0% across 17 filed years. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 0/100.

The balance sheet carried $399.5M of total debt in FY2025. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 0/100.

The share count rose 95.1% between FY2010 and FY2025 — existing owners have been diluted over the record. Capital Discipline scores it 24/100.

Put together: Pricing Power is the strongest of the four filters (70/100) and Returns on Capital the weakest (0/100), which is how GPRE lands at 26/100 — a None moat.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

RevenueSales, as filed$189.0M FY2025

Gross marginRevenue kept after cost of goods72.5% FY2025

Return on invested capitalOperating profit on the capital employed−5.4% FY2025

Owner earningsCash an owner could take out−$60.0M FY2025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in GPRE’s filings for that year — the series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Moat Score history

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale25.8 / 100

Score history begins Jul 17, 2026 — the record builds from here and can’t be backfilled.

Tier changesSame-methodology crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

None yet — GPRE has read No moat for every logged capture since Jul 17, 2026.

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record can’t be backfilled, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Materials context

#160 of 214 scored Materials companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

#158CITR CitroTech Inc.26.8 out of 100, No moatNo moat
#159QUAD Quad/Graphics, Inc.26.0 out of 100, No moatNo moat
#161APHD VERDE BIO HOLDINGS, INC.25.4 out of 100, No moatNo moat
#162CRC California Resources Corp25.2 out of 100, No moatNo moat

Compare GPRE with its nearest peers →All Materials companies on the Index →

Common questions about GPRE

Does Green Plains Inc. have an economic moat?: Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) 25.8 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The four filters behind that score (each 0–100): pricing power 70, returns on capital 0, balance-sheet safety 0, capital discipline 24.
How has GPRE's Moat Score changed over time?: The record logs 3 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 25.8 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

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Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell GPRE. See the disclaimer.