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Green Plains Inc.

GPRE · Materials · $1.2B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · No moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

No moat
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The five investor questions

55

2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $86.2M to $189M, increasing; diluted EPS -1.41 to -1.80, decreasing.

70

Median gross margin 132.2% over 6y, variable.

0

Median ROIC -3.7%, above the 12% hurdle in 0% of years.

0

Net debt/EBITDA 7.0x, interest coverage -1x.

24

Owner earnings changed trend unclear over up to the ten most recent annual observations.

Price vs. value if growth stopped today

A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.

Above value if growth stopped todayBelow value if growth stopped today
No price data
Not reported
Unavailable — insufficient owner-earnings data
Unavailable — insufficient growth-model data
$16.95
No price data

This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. The recent FY revenue series does not trigger the three-consecutive-declines flag.

Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 239% above the zero-growth estimate across 48 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.

Score records captured Jul 26, 2026.

Exactly which 50 companies?

FTNT, META, MEDP, IBEX, MSFT, GOOGL, LULU, ANF, IDXX, TXRH, FHI, QLYS, FFIV, ADBE, LLY, MANH, VEEV, GRMN, SSD, MNST, DOCS, MCO, CPRT, NTAP, LRCX, NVDA, CORT, SFM, MPTI, ULTA, SN, RMD, ROL, PAYC, IRMD, INTU, DECK, MORN, LGCY, DAL, GWW, ISRG, MPWR, CTAS, LOPE, MRK, CMG, FAST, BKNG, ORLY

Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF, BKNG.

Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 0% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.

18 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

Green Plains Inc. booked $189M of revenue in FY2025 in the Materials sector and kept 72.5% of it as gross profit — a high-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, −64.2% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.

Across the filed record, revenue shrank from $1.3B (FY2009) to $189M (FY2025) — about −11.4% a year compounded over 16 years.

It earned −5.4% on invested capital in the latest filed year, FY2025. Across the full 17-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was 4.0%. Over the v3 recent window (10 measurable filed years), median ROIC was −3.7%. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 0/100.

The balance sheet carried $400M of total debt in FY2025. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 0/100.

Put together: Pricing Power is the strongest of the five filters (70/100) and Returns on Capital the weakest (0/100), which is how GPRE lands at 30/100 — a None moat.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

FY2008–FY2025 · 18 fiscal years, normalized from GPRE’s SEC filings

Sales, as filed$189M FY2025
$0$2B2008201420202025
Revenue kept after cost of goods72.5% FY2025
0%100%200%2008201420202025
Standard ROIC or separately labeled Operating ROICROIC −5.4% FY2025
0%20%2008201420202025
Cash an owner could take out−$60M FY2025
$02008201420202025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in GPRE’s filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Flagship explainer

How Green Plains Inc. makes its money

Green Plains Inc.'s filing does not supply enough comparable lines for a truthful flow chart — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of revenueSource
$189M100%
$137M72%
−$67.2M−36%
Income before tax−$144M−76%
Income tax−$51.7M−27%
−$121M−64%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What Green Plains Inc. owns — and owes

Green Plains Inc.'s filing tags don't support a full breakdown — here's what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of assetsSource
Total assets$1.6B100%
Cash and equivalents$182M12%
$400M25%
Stockholders’ equity$766M49%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Flagship explainer

What drives Green Plains Inc.’s return on equity?

ROE is five filed business factors multiplied together.

DuPont return on equity factor treeReturn on equity branches into tax burden, interest burden, operating margin, asset turnover, and the equity multiplier.Return on equity−15%Tax burden84%net income ÷ pretax incomeInterest burden214%pretax ÷ operating incomeOperating margin−36%operating income ÷ revenueAsset turnover0.11×revenue ÷ average assetsEquity multiplier2.06×average assets ÷ average equityAs of 2025-12-31 · 1 SEC filing sourceBuy Like Buffett · buylikebuffett.com
DuPont source inputs
InputValueFiscal yearSource
−$121MFY2025
Income before tax−$144MFY2025
Operating income−$67.2MFY2025
$189MFY2025
Ending assets$1.6BFY2025
Beginning assets$1.8BFY2024
$766MFY2025
$865MFY2024
Source:
  • SEC filingFiling detailsAccession 0001309402-26-000019
· event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set
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Flagship explainer

Where Green Plains Inc.'s cash went

Green Plains Inc.’s filing does not supply enough provenance-matched cash-flow lines for a truthful flow chart — here’s what is filed:

Table alternative
Filed lineValue% of cash from operationsSource
Cash from operations$111M100%
Depreciation and amortization$98.4M89%
Source: · event Dec 31, 2025 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · annual-row source set

Curated 19-manager tier

Who reported holding Green Plains Inc.

Delayed public 13F reports for 2026-Q2—not live positions, trades, or recommendations.

0 holding0 exited0 not holding0/19 resolved19 unavailable

Named manager positions and quarter-over-quarter changes
ManagerReported positionQuarter-over-quarterFiling accession
Abrams CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Akre CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Baupost GroupUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Berkshire HathawayUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Brave Warrior AdvisorsUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Dodge & CoxUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
First EagleUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
FundsmithUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Gardner Russo & QuinnUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Gates Foundation TrustUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Mairs & PowerUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Markel / Markel-GaynerUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Oakmark / Harris AssociatesUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Pershing SquareUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Polen CapitalUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Sequoia / Ruane CunniffUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Southeastern Asset ManagementUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Tweedy, BrowneUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable
Yacktman Asset ManagementUnavailableComparison unavailableFiling unavailable

Position size uses shares and filed value from each manager’s 13F. Portfolio weight uses the eligible long-share filing denominator. Changes compare only with the immediately preceding calendar quarter.

Source: Filing source unavailable · event Jun 30, 2026 · retrieved Jul 26, 2026

Flagship explainer

What Green Plains Inc. insiders reported

Records still being gathered — partial as of retrieval Aug 19, 2026.

Partial coverage: the incomplete Form 4 walk cannot establish no activity, an activity date, or zero counts.

Moat Score history

16 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale29.8 / 100
0406080100WideNarrowShallowNo moatJul 17, 2026Jul 26, 2026

Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.

Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

  1. Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)moat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
  2. Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0moat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
  3. Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0moat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Insider activity

Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”

These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.

This machine-readable surface covers SEC ownership filings from 2003; it does not represent earlier paper-era records.

Records still being gathered — partial as of retrieval Aug 19, 2026.

Trailing-12-month totals and the 90-day cluster result are withheld because this issuer walk is incomplete.

No reported Form 4 rows were captured for GPRE; the incomplete walk cannot establish zero activity, zero counts, or a negative cluster result.

A filing source-event date will appear when a Form 4 row is captured.

Retrieved .

Materials context

#232 of 309 scored Materials companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

  1. #230NC NACCO INDUSTRIES, INC.30.0No moat
  2. #231SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro Co29.8No moat
  3. #233AREC AMERICAN RESOURCES CORPORATION29.8No moat
  4. #234WBTN WEBTOON Entertainment Inc.29.5No moat

Compare GPRE with its nearest peers →All Materials companies on the Index →

Common questions about GPRE

Does Green Plains Inc. have an economic moat?
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) 29.8 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 55, pricing power 70, returns on capital 0, balance-sheet safety 0, capital allocation 24.
How has GPRE's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 16 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 29.8 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell GPRE. See the disclaimer.