2022–2025 (latest 4 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $5.6B to $11.6B, increasing; diluted EPS -2.73 to 0.94, increasing.
84
Median gross margin 49.5% over 4y, very stable.
0
Median ROIC -0.1%, above the 12% hurdle in 0% of years.
100
Net cash position — no leverage risk.
38
Owner earnings changed trend unclear over up to the ten most recent annual observations.
Price vs. value if growth stopped today
A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.
Above value if growth stopped todayBelow value if growth stopped today
2891% above value if growth stopped today
$700M
$5.96
$5.96
$178.14
2891% above value if growth stopped today
What today’s price assumes: owner earnings growing ~97%/yr over 5 years. The zero-growth estimate assumes owner earnings stay flat (0% growth).
How to read this
We solve for the constant annual change in owner earnings that would make the five-year zero-growth estimate equal today’s price. This keeps the existing model inputs and calculation unchanged; it is an expectations lens, not a forecast.
This zero-growth estimate assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. The recent FY revenue series does not trigger the three-consecutive-declines flag.
Among the current top-score group, the median current price is 255% above the zero-growth estimate across 49 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.
Missing a usable price or zero-growth estimate: ANF.
Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth multiple 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 0% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.
5 years of fundamentals
The business, in plain English
Shopify Inc. booked $11.6B of revenue in FY2025 in the Technology sector and kept 48.1% of it as gross profit — a solid-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, 10.7% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.
It earned 10.0% on invested capital in the latest filed year, FY2025. Across the full 4-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was −0.1%. Over the v3 recent window (4 measurable filed years), median ROIC was −0.1%. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 0/100.
SHOP's latest filed year, FY2025, doesn't disclose total debt in a form the methodology can use, so current leverage is treated as unmeasured — never assumed to be zero.
Put together: Balance-Sheet Safety is the strongest of the five filters (100/100) and Returns on Capital the weakest (0/100), which is how SHOP lands at 60/100 — a Narrow moat.
This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.
FY2021–FY2025 · 5 fiscal years, normalized from SHOP’s SEC filings
Sales, as filed$11.6B FY2025Revenue kept after cost of goods48.1% FY2025Standard ROIC or separately labeled Operating ROIC
Exact FY and FY-1 financing invested-capital inputs are required.
Exact FY and FY-1 financing invested-capital inputs are required.
Cash an owner could take out$1.2B FY2025
The explained ROIC gaps have filed inputs but no meaningful positive invested-capital denominator. Other gaps mean the item is not in the filings for that year. The series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.
Flagship explainer
How Shopify Inc. makes its money
Start with a dollar of revenue and follow what the filing says remains.
Honest partial: the filing did not provide a normalized tag for Research and development, Selling, general and administrative; those components are omitted, not plugged.
Position size uses shares and filed value from each manager’s 13F. Portfolio weight uses the eligible long-share filing denominator. Changes compare only with the immediately preceding calendar quarter.
The complete Form 4 source snapshot retrieved on Oct 16, 2026 contains no transaction rows.
Verified empty: the retrieved source snapshot contains no transaction event.
Source snapshot retrieved 2026-10-16T07:00:03.854Z · SEC Form 4
Moat Score history
29 logged readings since Jul 17, 2026 · append-only, never rewritten
Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale60.0 / 100
Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.
Tier changesSame-methodology and same-normalizer crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars
Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record cannot be reconstructed retroactively, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.
Insider activity
Form 4 reports mix P/S market or private transactions with compensation-plan mechanics. Activity casually described as “insider selling” can include compensation mechanics; awards, tax withholding, and option exercises are shown by their exact filed class here, never collapsed into “Bought” or “Sold.”
These are disclosed filing facts and arithmetic aggregates, not a signal or verdict.
This machine-readable surface covers SEC ownership filings from 2003; it does not represent earlier paper-era records.
No reported Form 4 transactions were found in the complete checked issuer window for SHOP, –. The totals and cluster result below are arithmetic over that certified window.
$0
P purchases minus S sales only, Oct 16, 2025–Oct 16, 2026.
0 P / 0 S
Only P and S are included; awards, gifts, exercises, withholding, and other mechanics are excluded.
No
Requires at least 3 distinct insiders with P purchases.
Transaction-code histogram
Supporting event counts for the same certified window, Oct 16, 2025–Oct 16, 2026.
P
0
S
0
A
0
F
0
M
0
G
0
C
0
J
0
W
0
Retrieved .
Track record
How Shopify Inc.’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.
Point-in-time scores 2016–2025, one methodology version · reconstructed from filings on file each Dec 31 — never with hindsight
Point-in-time Moat Score (dot colored by tier)Indexed price (total-return (dividends reinvested))Rated Wide-moat that year
How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored SHOP on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.
Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The price path is a total-return (dividends reinvested) index built from the same data the forward returns use; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.
What followed, in the years it rated Wide
In the reconstructed history shown, SHOP did not rate Wide-moat in any year, so there is no wide-moat track record to report. That absence is itself the honest answer — we don’t manufacture a comparison where the rating never earned one.
Technology context
#194 of 752 scored Technology companies, ranked by Moat Score.
Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores Shopify Inc. (SHOP) 60.0 out of 100 — a Narrow moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 78, pricing power 84, returns on capital 0, balance-sheet safety 100, capital allocation 38.
Is SHOP trading below the conservative owner-earnings estimate?
The value if growth stopped today — a zero-growth baseline — is $5.96 per share. It capitalizes normalized owner earnings at a 9% rate and assumes 0% growth. Versus a recent price of $178.14, that is 2891% above value if growth stopped today. The model also publishes a capped-growth comparison, but the zero-growth estimate is the cautious baseline. It assumes trailing owner earnings persist and is unreliable for declining businesses. This is an educational estimate from primary SEC filings, not intrinsic value as a fact or investment advice.
How has SHOP's Moat Score changed over time?
The record logs 29 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 60.0 out of 100 (narrow moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.
Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell SHOP. See the disclaimer.