Does TIMKEN CO have an economic moat?

Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores TIMKEN CO (TKR) 58.1 out of 100 — a Shallow moat. The four filters behind that score (each 0–100): pricing power 48, returns on capital 58, balance-sheet safety 34, capital discipline 98.

Is TKR stock trading below its intrinsic value?

Against a deliberately conservative owner-earnings model (9% discount rate, 0% assumed growth, capped at 4%), estimated intrinsic value is $64.63 per share versus a recent price of $137.78 — 113% above value. This is an educational estimate computed from primary SEC filings, not investment advice.

How has TKR's Moat Score changed over time?

The record logs 3 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 58.1 out of 100 (shallow moat). No tier changes on record yet. The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

The Moat Index

TIMKEN CO

TKR · Industrials · $9.6B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · Shallow moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

Shallow moat

The four filters

Pricing power48

Median gross margin 28.9% over 10y, very stable.

Returns on capital58

Median ROIC 11.1%, above the 9% hurdle in 90% of years.

Balance-sheet safety34

Net debt/EBITDA 2.0x, interest coverage 5x.

Capital discipline98

Owner earnings +11.3%/yr, share count shrinking (buybacks).

Margin of safety

Above valueOn sale

113% above value

Owner earnings (normalized): $404.5M
Est. intrinsic value / share: $64.63
Recent price: $137.78
Discount to value: 113% above value

Conservative model: 9% discount rate, 0% assumed growth (capped at 4%), maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A).

19 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

TIMKEN CO booked $4.6B of revenue in FY2025 in the Industrials sector and kept 30.4% of it as gross profit — a moderate-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, 6.3% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.

Across the filed record, revenue shrank from $5.0B (FY2008) to $4.6B (FY2025) — about −0.6% a year compounded over 17 years.

It earned 8.7% on invested capital in FY2025, with a median of 11.4% across 18 filed years. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 58/100.

The balance sheet carried $1.9B of total debt in FY2025 against $370.3M of owner earnings — roughly 5.2 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 34/100.

The share count fell 29.0% between FY2010 and FY2025 — management has been retiring shares, which concentrates each remaining owner's claim. Capital Discipline scores it 98/100.

Put together: Capital Discipline is the strongest of the four filters (98/100) and Balance-Sheet Safety the weakest (34/100), which is how TKR lands at 58/100 — a Shallow moat.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

RevenueSales, as filed$4.6B FY2025

Gross marginRevenue kept after cost of goods30.4% FY2025

Return on invested capitalOperating profit on the capital employed8.7% FY2025

Owner earningsCash an owner could take out$370.3M FY2025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in TKR’s filings for that year — the series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Moat Score history

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale58.1 / 100

Score history begins Jul 17, 2026 — the record builds from here and can’t be backfilled.

Tier changesSame-methodology crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

None yet — TKR has read Shallow moat for every logged capture since Jul 17, 2026.

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record can’t be backfilled, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Industrials context

#88 of 309 scored Industrials companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

#86VMI VALMONT INDUSTRIES INC58.3 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
#87ALG ALAMO GROUP INC.58.2 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
#89HWKN HAWKINS, INC.57.6 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
#90CXT CRANE NXT, CO.57.3 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat

Compare TKR with its nearest peers →All Industrials companies on the Index →

Common questions about TKR

Does TIMKEN CO have an economic moat?: Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores TIMKEN CO (TKR) 58.1 out of 100 — a Shallow moat. The four filters behind that score (each 0–100): pricing power 48, returns on capital 58, balance-sheet safety 34, capital discipline 98.
Is TKR stock trading below its intrinsic value?: Against a deliberately conservative owner-earnings model (9% discount rate, 0% assumed growth, capped at 4%), estimated intrinsic value is $64.63 per share versus a recent price of $137.78 — 113% above value. This is an educational estimate computed from primary SEC filings, not investment advice.
How has TKR's Moat Score changed over time?: The record logs 3 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 58.1 out of 100 (shallow moat). No tier changes on record yet. The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

Embed this score on your site

One iframe, no script. The badge shows TKR’s live Moat Score, updates itself as new filings are scored, and links back here. How it works.

<iframe
  src="https://buylikebuffett.com/embed/TKR"
  width="340" height="150" style="border:0"
  title="TKR Moat Score — The Moat Index"
  loading="lazy"></iframe>

Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell TKR. See the disclaimer.