Does VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX have an economic moat?

Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX (VLO) 37.8 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The four filters behind that score (each 0–100): pricing power 0, returns on capital 55, balance-sheet safety 57, capital discipline 49.

Is VLO stock trading below its intrinsic value?

Against a deliberately conservative owner-earnings model (9% discount rate, 4% assumed growth, capped at 4%), estimated intrinsic value is $209.90 per share versus a recent price of $309.65 — 48% above value. This is an educational estimate computed from primary SEC filings, not investment advice.

How has VLO's Moat Score changed over time?

The record logs 3 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 37.8 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

The Moat Index

VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX

VLO · Energy · $92.6B mkt cap · FY2025 filings · No moat ·

Doesn't clear the bar

No moat

The four filters

Pricing power0

Median gross margin 4.6% over 10y, variable.

Returns on capital55

Median ROIC 12.1%, above the 9% hurdle in 70% of years.

Balance-sheet safety57

Net debt/EBITDA 0.6x, interest coverage 6x.

Capital discipline49

Owner earnings -2.3%/yr, share count shrinking (buybacks).

Margin of safety

Above valueOn sale

48% above value

Owner earnings (normalized): $3.5B
Est. intrinsic value / share: $209.90
Recent price: $309.65
Discount to value: 48% above value

Conservative model: 9% discount rate, 4% assumed growth (capped at 4%), maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A).

20 years of fundamentals

The business, in plain English

VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX booked $122.7B of revenue in FY2025 in the Energy sector and kept 4.4% of it as gross profit — a thin-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, 1.9% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.

Across the filed record, revenue grew from $75.7B (FY2016) to $122.7B (FY2025) — about 5.5% a year compounded over 9 years.

It earned 8.7% on invested capital in FY2025, with a median of 13.9% across 18 filed years. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 55/100.

The balance sheet carried $8.3B of total debt in FY2025 against $2.3B of owner earnings — roughly 3.5 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 57/100.

The share count fell 47.1% between FY2009 and FY2025 — management has been retiring shares, which concentrates each remaining owner's claim. Capital Discipline scores it 49/100.

Put together: Balance-Sheet Safety is the strongest of the four filters (57/100) and Pricing Power the weakest (0/100), which is how VLO lands at 38/100 — a None moat.

This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.

RevenueSales, as filed$122.7B FY2025

Gross marginRevenue kept after cost of goods4.4% FY2025

Return on invested capitalOperating profit on the capital employed8.7% FY2025

Owner earningsCash an owner could take out$2.3B FY2025

Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in VLO’s filings for that year — the series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.

Moat Score history

Moat Score over timeLast scored reading of each day, on the 0–100 scale37.8 / 100

Score history begins Jul 17, 2026 — the record builds from here and can’t be backfilled.

Tier changesSame-methodology crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars

None yet — VLO has read No moat for every logged capture since Jul 17, 2026.

Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record can’t be backfilled, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.

Energy context

#2 of 7 scored Energy companies, ranked by Moat Score.

Nearest peers by Moat Score

#1VVV VALVOLINE INC.64.9 out of 100, Narrow moatNarrow moat
#3MPC MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION37.1 out of 100, No moatNo moat
#4CVI CVR ENERGY, INC32.7 out of 100, No moatNo moat
#5PBF PBF ENERGY INC.31.9 out of 100, No moatNo moat

Compare VLO with its nearest peers →All Energy companies on the Index →

Common questions about VLO

Does VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX have an economic moat?: Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX (VLO) 37.8 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The four filters behind that score (each 0–100): pricing power 0, returns on capital 55, balance-sheet safety 57, capital discipline 49.
Is VLO stock trading below its intrinsic value?: Against a deliberately conservative owner-earnings model (9% discount rate, 4% assumed growth, capped at 4%), estimated intrinsic value is $209.90 per share versus a recent price of $309.65 — 48% above value. This is an educational estimate computed from primary SEC filings, not investment advice.
How has VLO's Moat Score changed over time?: The record logs 3 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 37.8 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.

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Scored from primary SEC filings via the public methodology. Educational only — not a recommendation to buy or sell VLO. See the disclaimer.