MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
MPC · Energy · FY2025 filings · No moat ·
Price verdict withheld — owner-earnings floor unreliable
The five investor questions
2021–2025 (latest 5 aligned FYs; v3 window cap 5): revenue $120.0B to $132.7B, increasing; diluted EPS 15.24 to 13.22, decreasing.
Median gross margin 10.3% over 10y, variable.
Median ROIC 11.1%, above the 12% hurdle in 50% of years.
Net debt/EBITDA 2.5x, interest coverage 6x.
Owner earnings +14.7%/yr, share count n/a.
Price vs. conservative owner-earnings floor
A cautious baseline, not a price target: what the shares may support if normalized owner earnings simply hold steady.
- Owner earnings (normalized)
- $11.1B
- Owner-earnings floor / share
- Unavailable — insufficient owner-earnings data
- Capped-growth comparison / share
- Unavailable — insufficient growth-model data
- Recent price
- $309.24
- Price vs. owner-earnings floor
- No price data
This floor assumes trailing owner earnings persist — unreliable for declining businesses. MPC revenue fell in each of the three most recent year-over-year FY comparisons, so this floor is flagged as unreliable for this company.
Cohort context: median current price is 239% above the floor across 48 of the current top 50 companies by Moat Score with both values.
Score records captured Jul 26, 2026.
Exactly which 50 companies?
FTNT, META, MEDP, IBEX, MSFT, GOOGL, LULU, ANF, IDXX, TXRH, FHI, QLYS, FFIV, ADBE, LLY, MANH, VEEV, GRMN, SSD, MNST, DOCS, MCO, CPRT, NTAP, LRCX, NVDA, CORT, SFM, MPTI, ULTA, SN, RMD, ROL, PAYC, IRMD, INTU, DECK, MORN, LGCY, DAL, GWW, ISRG, MPWR, CTAS, LOPE, MRK, CMG, FAST, BKNG, ORLY
Missing a usable price or floor: ANF, BKNG.
Model details under moat-index@3.0.0: zero-growth floor 11.1×, capped-growth comparison at no more than 18×; 9% discount rate; high-end growth 0% (capped at 4%) using min(5y revenue CAGR, 5y diluted-EPS CAGR), clamped to 0%–4%; maintenance capex uses min(capex, D&A); abstain when D&A is unavailable. This is a disclosed model range, not intrinsic value as fact.
18 years of fundamentals
The business, in plain English
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION booked $132.7B of revenue in FY2025 in the Energy sector and kept 10.0% of it as gross profit — a thin-margin business by that measure. After every other cost, 3.0% of each revenue dollar reached the bottom line.
Across the filed record, revenue grew from $45.5B (FY2009) to $132.7B (FY2025) — about 6.9% a year compounded over 16 years.
It earned 14.9% on invested capital in the latest filed year, FY2025. Across the full 17-year measurable filed record, median ROIC was 13.8%. Over the v3 recent window (10 measurable filed years), median ROIC was 11.1%. The Returns on Capital filter above scores it 44/100.
The balance sheet carried $32.9B of total debt in FY2025 against $4.0B of owner earnings — roughly 8.1 years of owner earnings to retire it all. Balance-Sheet Safety scores it 29/100.
Put together: Capital Discipline is the strongest of the five filters (80/100) and Pricing Power the weakest (7/100), which is how MPC lands at 40/100 — a None moat.
This breakdown is generated from the filed numbers and sub-scores above — no outside narrative, no estimates. Where a filing doesn’t disclose an input, the sentence that would need it is omitted instead of guessed.
Gaps in a line mean that item isn’t in MPC’s filings for that year — the series is never interpolated or estimated. The Table view lists every filed value, including operating and net margins, total debt, and share count.
Moat Score history
Breaks in the line mark methodology or normalizer upgrades — readings across versions aren’t compared, so a level shift there isn’t a change in the business.
Tier changesSame-methodology crossings of the Wide / Narrow / Shallow bars
- Normalizer upgraded unstamped (version unknown)tomoat-xbrl-normalizer@1.1.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 26, 2026
- Methodology upgraded moat-index@2.0.0tomoat-index@3.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 23, 2026
- Methodology upgraded moat-index@1.2.0tomoat-index@2.0.0 — readings across versions aren’t comparedJul 20, 2026
Scores are logged append-only and never overwritten — this record can’t be backfilled, which is exactly why it’s worth keeping.
Track record
How MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION’s moat rated in each of the years we can reconstruct from its filings — scored only on what was knowable at the time — and what its price and returns did afterward. The score never saw a price; the two are joined only in hindsight, for education, not as a signal.
How to read this: each dot is what the engine would have scored MPC on that December 31; the line below is its total-return price path (dividends reinvested) in the years since.
Two tracks, one timeline: the score has its own 0–100 scale (top), the price its own 100-based scale (bottom) — never a shared axis. The price path is a total-return (dividends reinvested) index built from the same data the forward returns use; gaps in the score line are years with no reconstructed rating (see the table for why). The Table view carries every value.
What followed, in the years it rated Wide
In the 3 years MPC rated Wide-moat (2013, 2014 and 2015), the median forward total return that followed — measured only after each year’s filings were public — was:
- 1 year 7% vs the S&P 500’s 12% (price basis) · median over 3 years
- 3 years 28% vs the S&P 500’s 25% (price basis) · median over 3 years
- 5 years 52% vs the S&P 500’s 58% (price basis) · median over 3 years
These are medians computed from the data, not a claim about any one year. The company figures are total returns (dividends reinvested); the S&P 500 is the price-only ^GSPC index, which excludes dividends and so understates the index — the gap flatters the company. A quality rating is not a return forecast, and past returns don’t predict future ones. Educational only, not investment advice.
Energy context
#5 of 10 scored Energy companies, ranked by Moat Score.
Nearest peers by Moat Score
- #3VVV VALVOLINE INC.60.1 out of 100, Narrow moatNarrow moat
- #4VLO VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX41.6 out of 100, Shallow moatShallow moat
- #6CVI CVR ENERGY, INC36.1 out of 100, No moatNo moat
- #7PBF PBF ENERGY INC.30.9 out of 100, No moatNo moat
Compare MPC with its nearest peers →All Energy companies on the Index →
Common questions about MPC
- Does MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION have an economic moat?
- Based on its FY2025 SEC filings, the Moat Index scores MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION (MPC) 39.6 out of 100 — below the Shallow-moat bar, so no moat. The five questions behind that score begin at 20% each; if exactly one genuinely lacks data, the other four weights are renormalized and disclosed. revenue and EPS trend 38, pricing power 7, returns on capital 44, balance-sheet safety 29, capital discipline 80.
- How has MPC's Moat Score changed over time?
- The record logs 16 readings since Jul 17, 2026; the latest reads 39.6 out of 100 (no moat). No tier changes on record yet. (Methodology or normalizer upgrades on Jul 20, 2026, Jul 23, 2026, Jul 26, 2026 re-based the score; readings across versions aren't compared.) The history is append-only — readings are only ever added, never rewritten.